Ukraine-Krieg: So entscheidend ist die Lieferung von Munition und Ersatzteilen | ZDFheute live

hello, we are here again for you ZDF

live

today, welcome to our broadcast, we are very happy that you are with us Today exactly 9 months ago the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine began, which means that this war of aggression, which is contrary to According to international law, it has been in force for 273 days and is now exactly up to date. Especially on the ground, the eastern regions of Ukraine are very disputed, now there are the regions and Luansk and from the air, the Russian missiles hit there again and again, which is what we are currently seeing, civil infrastructures, destroying entire houses , they destroy streets because everything is on top, they also separate them Entire regions are cut off from the electricity and water supply and this is also known, they are randomly erasing the

live

s of people from yesterday Ukrainian information that we heard there spoke of at least six deaths after After the attacks, much of the capital kyiv was still without electricity today and many people did not have access to running water all day, but according to Mayor Klitschko, at least it has now been restored, so the water supply for The population has returned, that's what the reports say at noon today.

Colonel Markus Reisner is our guest from the Austrian Armed Forces. He is an experienced military expert. even from his own missions abroad, for example in the Kosovo war. Good evening, Mr. Reissner, thank you for your time. We have just seen together, Mr. Reisner, the images of the destruction caused by the Russian missiles and they are happening. Why is this? Ukraine obviously cannot defend itself from these missiles, the challenge is that after nine months of war they have to confirm that the Russians still have capabilities that we have so far underestimated. An example of this is the use of idiotic Iranian ballistic missiles and drones against critical infrastructure targets, we have been convinced for months that the Russian Air Force barely performs missions, that this precision means that bodies and missiles have a very low probability of being shocked, but reality caught up with us. with us at the end of September and beginning of October, that is, at that time the critics decided to attack the infrastructure, the central nervous system, the energy supply that the country and its population needed, these protected areas according to the airmen to protect them for create the conditions so that this critical infrastructure is not destroyed and now they have several aspects that come into play, the first aspect being: At the beginning of the war, the Russian Air Force had already destroyed about a third of the Ukrainian air forces.

Subsequently, the aircraft were ultimately deployed in the preparation zones for the offensives, which we then planned for early August and October. As we saw in October with its Marshall corps and ballistic missiles to attack critical infrastructure targets, Ukraine barely had air systems left and in order to confront them, it happened that the first systems arrived, but the size of the country and the objects that were protect here also increased, makes it almost impossible to do anything about it now. and now we can see the result due to the attacks, a total of 11 cases from mid-October until now, so we see that they are speaking very clearly about the problem area, that this issue is not enough, they are available and there is also a lack of supplies, There is a lack of am

munition

for the systems, we take that into account for the moment.

Thank you Mr. Reisner, we will also go into more detail about these issues and what to keep in mind. In terms of logistics, later in the program you just mentioned the size of Ukraine, how these issues may influence the future of the war, what questions do you have for Colonel Reisner, who will be happy to participate directly in the chats or via email address, we have them at ZDF [email protected] and of course we will be happy to answer any questions you may have for our second guest today, who we are speaking to now, Roderich Kiesewetter from the CDU, of the opposition. in the German Bundestag.

He is a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag. With him we are talking about arms supplies from Germany and what he thinks is going wrong is a good keyword, let's take a look at the Artillery area: According to Spiegel magazine, the German Ministry of Defense did not take the supply into account of spare parts when delivering the 2000 self-propelled howitzer to Ukraine, but Marco Jessen spoke exactly about that today with the Ministry of Defense and this The answers for us were: the 2000 self-propelled howitzer, a very welcome and perhaps decisive weapon in the hands of the army Ukrainian, 14 of which Germany gave to Ukraine to support the country in the war against Russia, reports the newspaper Spiegel.

Many of them are now only partially operational, because if spare parts were missing during the repair in Lithuania, one of the howitzers would have had to be dismantled to keep the others combat-ready, unlike the German Ministry of Defense, which points out that the spare parts for the howitzer have already been delivered and that maintenance will be easier from mid-December, then you will no longer have to sit, they are difficult to bring to Lithuania, but they can be repaired directly behind the border with Ukraine, in Slovakia. It is currently being installed there and should be ready for use before Christmas.

The Minister of Defense Finance assured us last week in Brussels that we will create a repair center in Slovakia that can start immediately. The agreement has been reached, it is important that all "The weapons delivered can be repaired even after the battle. We will continue to support Ukraine in the future with all possible means, if there is enough am

munition

for the Germans from the reserves of the Bundeswehr and from industry. Weapons can be delivered to Ukraine." The Minister of Defense maintains a low profile. This is also a question of the course of the war, so when it comes to the crucial issues there are still unanswered questions.

Roderich Kiesewetter is now with us on behalf of the CDU in the German Bundestag. Good afternoon, Mr. Kiesewetter. Greetings to you, Mr. Kiesewetter. Because it is there? You are also a member of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee. I would also like to ask you why Germany is taking so long to provide supplies, especially now. "This, of course, plays a very important role in the fact that orders for spare parts and, above all, ammunition came very soon, and this has not been fulfilled. In addition, our operational equipment is also self-propelled howitzers ​​or Mars. launchers Yes, how to put it, we are used to training operations in Germany, but here the weapon is used 24 hours a day every day and there is no ammunition for it.

Different ammunition is used, there is special pollution and All of this could have been solved beforehand with an intelligent clarification. Then you have to be more and more intelligent, but what I need is to recognize it from the beginning. We let the months of March, April, May pass, when the decision was made. Six weeks of training were necessary before the self-propelled howitzer was delivered in the year 2000 and orders should have been placed at the latest, but not only do we need ammunition or spare parts, but also due to the high wear of the tubes, the pipes have a very long lead time, so a lot of things come together here, they just decided too naively, too late, yes, the crucial question is yes, but if that could have been foreseen, why didn't the federal government?

Think and act in the long term and with perspective? I, as an opposition politician, do not want to make any accusations. I've been in the Bundeswehr for 27 years, I'm an off-duty colonel and I once ran a rocket. study battalion with 32 rocket launchers and that is the problem, when you prepare for war four or five times but you fire 50, 80, 90 grenades or the corresponding number of rockets every day and the Federal Republic of Germany has delivered two daily doses in the supply Only in the number of ammunition, as can be read, Ukraine consumes between 5 and 6,000 rounds of Adri ammunition per day and were initially delivered.

First, 13,000 cartridges were announced and another 6,000, which means that only three or four days' worth of ammunition was delivered. , it was sold out a long time ago, you should have known that, and secondly, due to the high level of wear and tear, the necessary spare parts had to be ordered in advance, which I don't want to use technical terms here. All this must be taken into account. It is good that this repair center will be established at least from mid-December, but these will all be decisions that should have been foreseen before and then I say that it is a real accusation and that it would have been clearly foreseeable in May or June because Yes, You know, Ukraine has ammunition for between 5 and 6,000 grenades a day and the Russians have between 50 and 60,000 grenades in combat and it is clear that Ukraine wears out its equipment and simply relies on the Although we promised too much and delivered too little with the right support, what Ukraine also demands from the West, but also from Germany, is, as they say directly, heavy battle tanks and other air defense systems, and we have already seen the problems with the 30-year-old grandfather and discussed them, for For example, Ukraine, they say, these weapons, these Western systems of Germany's NATO partners would also be decisive to further influence this war and also to win in the future.

Now Mr. Reisner has already told us that Logistics is a problem and so are repairs, that's what he just discussed with the repair center, why exactly can't we deliver these weapons that are needed to exactly the right places , so that they are delivered to the correct places? which is something we don't do and I will say that first what is being done we sent five rocket launchers to Mars and we sent 14 self-propelled howitzers then the Dutch supported us, that is very little when you know that the Americans delivered about 100 of them and about all a few hundred howitzers, so we are already there, sometimes the numbers are very low, of course Ukraine also depends on our support, especially tanks, please 2000, but what is needed is due to nature Old Soviet weapon systems, battle tanks and armored personnel carriers have no chance of surviving if they are hit, or the soldiers The device explodes and heats up to 8000 degrees and everything evaporates.

That's terrible when the Marder armored personnel carrier, which is 4050 years old, and the Leopard 1 main battle tank, which is also around 40 or 50 years old, have a much better chance of surviving, but the Ministry of Defense has a duty to the Chancellery, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Economy, Although the liberals and the greens have spoken out very clearly in favor of the handover, we support that we, as the Bundestag, with almost 600 votes (586 votes ) let's support the delivery of heavy weapons already on April 28, the Foreign Ministry is afraid of this. There is no distinction between Western and Eastern systems when it comes to system delivery; they are simply capable of guaranteeing the survival of the crews and the fact that we hide this from the Ukrainians is because Germany feels threatened and it is believed that Russia would increase its nuclear capacity if such a handover were made, and that is wrong and we have to address that very publicly, that here Russia is working with the German fear without actually implementing it.

We have to be brave and allow Ukraine to win and if Ukraine does not restore its borders beyond that, it should not go further, at least from now on. In January of this year, Ukraine will collapse and the war will continue against Moldova and against the Baltic countries and that is why the delivery of "These weapons systems are very important. Germany is demanding leadership. Yes, leadership also means European coordination. The Americans encourage us to protect ourselves and supply battle tanks because we have the logistics chains here, 13 nations have the Leopard battle tank, so the federal government should not despair, but listen to the FDP and the Greens and maybe also one or two Union councilors, so here the clear demands of Ulrich Käsewetter to the Chancellery line Heavy weapons to be delivered to Ukraine Mr.

Käsewetter, I am happy to include our community now, they will also ask you personal questions, it is about the next situation, a quick look at the facts. Apparently, Germany also wanted 12,000 rounds of ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, "We need it right now in Ukraine for the one used to combat drone attacks by Russia. Switzerland has banned the shipment of ammunition. Justification Neutrality The question asked by user Till Meyer on YouTube: Are you now in favor of sanctioning Switzerland for not supplying Cheetah ammunition and in general the complex is being evaluated, so in a war like this you cannot be neutral, that is completely clear and Switzerland has also benefited from its neutrality for decades through billions of investments.

Switzerland benefits fromRussian oligarchs. True winner of the war and defends neutrality: 12,000 cartridges are stationed in Germany, but we will not use this Swiss ammunition if this country does not obtain it on its own. Much more important is that we share the 200,000 cartridges that come from Brazil and now in Qatar to protect the World Cup, then let's hope that it continues and that these ammunition are produced. Germany has given the production data to Norway and also Ukraine so that they can be produced locally. War means a war against everyone. "We, Russia, do not want the European Union and NATO to continue living as before, they will cause a mass exodus and attack civilian infrastructure.

That is why ammunition would be so important to shoot down the very cheap Iranian drones, each of which has 40-50 kilograms of explosives and destroying power plants, it is very important and that is why I say that even very open neutrality does not help here. These are the most serious war crimes against the Ukrainian civilian population. This is no longer a military war but a war of annihilation against Ukraine's right to exist. We stand by a clear statement so firmly that you personally made it exactly a month ago Location in Ukraine, I think it was quite accurate three weeks ago, three weeks ago they had an idea in Perhaps you can give us some impressions about the problems you have discovered in terms of ammunition logistics and transport routes and what else is needed from your point of view.

To record this to solve these problems in the future of the war, just very briefly. "I also saw a lot of suffering of the civilian population beforehand. Power outages, water shortages, aerial alarms, we were in basements, so there is already a war against the civilian population, what is simply needed is more supplies, more production. that is good that the federal government quickly holds a summit with the arms industry to produce ammunition and propel the appropriate means to fire battery grenades, that is, gunpowder and explosives. This should have been done a long time ago, here we need more factories, just the construction time. and the delivery time will be a year and a half, two years, so now we do not have supplies and that is why we have to do everything possible to convince the partners to deliver.

Also, it is about training at an early stage, for example with Marder or Leopard drivers, but also training on the appropriate To improve the equipment, repairs to Verb and Ukraine to create production opportunities in our own country, where we simply help so that it can be produce, that was also a very urgent request. and once again the request for old Leopard battle tanks and old Marder armored personnel carriers because they are simply better than the very dangerous Soviet material that is also coming out. I would like to give you some comments that come from our community and that go hand in hand. "With demands similar to those you describe from Thorsten Schlabbeck on YouTube from the German we are such a rich country, we have to help much more," he says and comments.

I would also like to ask your opinion again on whether you see it that way too. Jerk Simplon asks on YouTube or writes on YouTube as a comment why it was not planned long term and with foresight. Because in Germany you have to argue with 30 people who have doubts if you want to buy a new Pencil, they go with it. That's also part of the problem. Part of the problem is that in the Bundeswehr, management and material responsibility are separated, material responsibility is civilian for the new German. This is called outsourced to civilians and the "Troop commanders no longer have the material responsibility that I had as a battalion commander.

The second thing is that tenders in Germany, unlike France, are only done in Europe. France looks first what you can do yourself and thirdly, Germany has unfortunately referred to this. During the Union government, production capacities were also reduced and the coalition partner at that time was also the Federal Minister of Finance, the current Chancellor, so there are many problems here, which is why political parties Considerations do not help at all, but we have to move to a war economy in the field of the arms industry and that means that the regulations on the working time and other things through better salaries overlap and do everything possible to establish production chains where in a matter of months cannons, ammunition, but also small arms and much more are obtained to win this war.

I can only agree with the comments: we are too bureaucratic, too slow and we have not adapted to the fact that we have become Russia's war target. a mixture of self-criticism of the government's own responsibility and clear demands, but also of the current federal government. Many thanks to Roderich Kiesewetter of the CDU, member of the German Bundestag and also member of the Foreign Affairs Committee for the further development of the process. war and we are now discussing this with Colonel Reissner of the Austrian army. Good evening again, Mr. Reisner. The first question that naturally arises is when we talk about stock, lack of supplies, maybe we can conserve them.

Do you know how long Ukraine's current ammunition reserves will last? You can't make a forecast like that now if you don't know the exact stocks. Of course, both sides are modest, but perhaps let me add to what was predicted. - the important thing is that you have to understand and you don't have to be a military expert or have military strategy or other military training, but if you try to force a peace organization to wage war then it can't work and that's exactly The problem is that Russia has been preparing for months, possibly years, and that's just in the sheer number of parliamentarians.

More than 4,700 rockets have been used against Ukraine against Ukraine and, on the other hand, Europe has not prepared itself in any way in the last 20 years. years, they have disarmed their armed forces, they have left everything empty and now they are trying to do it to provide the person with a woman and of course that does not work, just think of the women who fought in Ukraine. It is 1,100 km long, that would be the case if you got in the car in Berlin and drove to London and then imagined what 14:00 is like or used multiple rocket launchers, that is simply not possible.

You can only wage war if you really commit yourselves massively with all the effort that is possible and necessary and also try to achieve change by giving massive support here and that is not the case. In this case, it's all a drop in the ocean and they are constantly being emptied. It was able to carry out the offensives in the summer because it had already received heavy weapons from the West, mainly 400 of the main battle tanks of Soviet builders, Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and other states had the material that they themselves had. And one had the quantitatively strongest armed forces in Europe, which were already worn out by that time.

These weapons have now allowed me to basically take the hackiv who owns these spaces, but that will also run out again. , the question is where the next systems should come from, but when we talk about the German Leopard we should not forget these systems on paper, for example, they have all been cannibalized in recent years, they look like a tank from the outside. but there's nothing left inside, that's all they're updating, these circuit boards from the 80's and 90's, they're not made at all anymore, they're all hand made. Europe was not prepared for this war and we are not even trying now, simply with small deliveries, to alleviate the suffering and alleviate the anguish, but we can see in this attack on critical infrastructure that if it does not take off on a large scale here from now on Go ahead, in a few weeks Ukraine will be completely dark because there is no longer any functioning critical infrastructure, but what does it need then?

The moment you say you were not ready, you are not ready even now. What are the solutions from your point of view? "An enormous effort would have to be made and, in fact, a massive start would have to be made in the economic systems to rebuild weapons capabilities. The arms industry, of course, is closed and reserved, you would like to have guarantees from the states about the permission of political driving, so that we can guarantee you the purchase of this or that piece of this ammunition, these weapons systems, then you are ready to make these investments, it is not that we can do it from one moment to the next, to be able to trample on others, it takes months and it takes months to build and of course you want to be absolutely sure that it's a worthwhile investment in the long run because basically you can't do it for free or anything like that without paying because now it's just weaponry.

The problem is that they require that increase again and, of course, we are running out of time, that is the problem because we do not have the stocks that we could deliver to Ukraine in the meantime and then increase the armament in the background. , nor the capacity we have. Now you can start implementing construction projects on a massive scale or repairing production lines and such as they were before, which means the problem is simply trying to put together what you have and deliver it. , you realize there isn't enough somewhere, you find something new and try to deliver it again and that's the problem of the saint afterwards, while Russia said he would be dead month after month and didn't take the weapons seriously and shows it in At the strategic level, it's all about strategic attrition.

Now we are taking the initiative again and that is the paradox: we have successes for Ukraine at the operational level, but these are not possible thanks to the strategic attacks of the Russians. In Ukraine they are sitting there, but they are sitting there in the dark. The Russians have destroyed the infrastructure. On the one hand, they are leaving scorched earth, on the other hand, they are deliberately destroying this nervous supply system of the Ukrainian population. Now the British secret service says Russia also has huge and dramatic supply problems. On the other hand, what is your information and that Russia has had problems since the beginning of the war listening to, especially to the British intelligence services? "Let's not forget that we are fighting a war in the information space, so the goal here is to influence.

The fact is that Russia has so far managed to maintain momentum at this strategic level and this momentum means that always the Russians decide that "There will be a wave of attacks against Ukraine and they do it intelligently. They send several swarms, for example, first the Iranian drones, the Greek planes are saturated, they understand their missiles and then the bodies of morons come and then, surprisingly, their targets are very precise So, reach the 750 KVA transformation, that is exactly the problem where these Russian warehouses are slowly running empty if you think about the fact that, for example, the S300 rockets are used as ground-based missiles or that's exactly what these Iranian drones look like, but that's the most devastating thing that the Iranians Appearing Drones shows that the Russians managed to make sure in time that their teachers didn't completely empty the camp, but they made up for it with the use of these Iranian drones and we hear that they may be more types.

In the future or even Iranian missiles will be launched, that is, the momentum can be maintained, while on the other hand, the available Ukrainian air defense systems are becoming less and less because they attack the target but are also running out of ammunition. It can no longer be found in Ukraine and it is not at risk in Europe either, so basically you have to give up the European or American systems and here too the stocks are very limited, that is the problem we are currently seeing here and that is exactly the Ukraine's demand that in the long term we completely convert to NATO systems and the process to fixed systems and not to the Soviet reserves that were captured during the war, but as I hear it and if I understand it correctly, you can already see the danger of Ukraine reaching a critical point in the future of the war if this re-equipment is not done now.

And if no further deliveries are made, we are of course on the way to a cooling point. combination point, that's why it had already taken place at the beginning of the war. We didn't want this war of attrition to be a real collapse next week, that was just between victory, so they can't do that anyway, they still own Almost 18% of the territory is currently entrenched and able to show initiative at this strategic level through these attacks on critical infrastructure and the question is who gets it. Now it is no longer because Ukraine, which is what I am saying here, is increasingly worn down or because the Russians, for the On the contrary, in their satellite images you can even see their dark Ukraine and a brighter Moscow, that is the guarantee. that Russia can make the most of it, practically unscathed.

While Ukraine is struggling to get support, at least on a small scale, from the West or the United States, if the United States does notfulfills, by the way, then the war would probably be over by now. because we have something we can use in Europe. The sad truth is that, essentially, if you deliver an amount of your T-systems that doesn't even affect the number of fingers on your hand, then you can imagine what it can protect in this huge country that such a rocket costs 700,000 euros versus 20,000 dollars from the Iranian drone and our situation is not that great because after the end of the Cold War we thought that the end of history had arrived, as Francisana said, and all our weapons systems and all the things that we basically said do not need to be dismantled.

There are no more reserves, they have to be built first, it takes years, the question is whether they can hold out for years or not. Speaking of resisting, there are also other voices from colleagues of military experts and another projection about the permanence of the Russian side comes from his colleague Markus Kolb, he is a military expert at the ETH in Zurich and he made a projection and says that the current figures Let's say , if we look at artillery and tanks, that the Russian army has already lost 1,000 tanks and is currently losing five tanks a day.

If he said that the rate of attrition was greater than in any previous war and if it continued like this, that is also his projection, then in a year Russia would not have any tanks. You can confirm it, but from the Ukrainian point of view that would be a decisive and good thing. The question is if in a year the Russians no longer have some railway, what do they have there at the moment, Ukraine also has this additional fee and, so to speak, its corresponding defense capacity or even being able to go to the leader, that is the big question and We must not forget that the Russian system of operational control and also the way in which weapon systems were used was completely different from that of the West, which has concentrated on building modern high-precision weapon systems that have combat superiority with a large number of The number of sensors will represent Russia has always relied on the opposite, it has tried to decide by massive confrontations, so when it is assumed that for an entered tank, a tank that is virtually protected, it needs about four to attack so you need four the 72 3 will be shot down but the fourth will break this Leopard that was the mass idea of ​​the massive deployment and we are the strikers the Russians use here they are partly systems from the 50s and 60s These t260 systems, for example, combine everything that a tank in these battles as we see them, it is mobile, it has firepower and it has armor, it does not have to be a modern T14, so the latest models of which the Russians have some, this old volume from the 50s and 60s is enough to have exactly this pull effect and Russia still has a lot in stock and if it is obviously in a position to make a deal with Iran and threaten to go white, who else can you make a deal and also get tanks and if this supply continues uninterrupted and if the population continues to support the regime, then if the time of October 1917 does not come and if the knowledge is still obtained, Russia will simply be a factor that represents a big problem for Ukraine if Ukraine does not come from abroad due to this massive gap and receive support because it has its own similar stock that is only replenished very slowly through deliveries from the West, so there is also a clear demand from the West for additional support and active - we just discussed this at the beginning of your answer: that's the question: Who has that and at what time on both sides?

I would also like to give you another assessment of Mr. Kolb, he predicts regarding the artillery stock. concerned, as you say, there will still be a majority on the Russian side, but you say that if so, now, step by step, NATO systems are being added to Western systems, then you will already see that in four weeks this It could also change on the part of Ukraine, does this coincide with your calculations? What would I say? How will this play out? Of course. The closer depends on the better Ukraine supports with weapons systems. You have to enter them.

Ukraine had The armed forces, which of course have been basically improved in the last eight years, whether it is the old Soviet 22 or 152 mm system, here Ukraine has millions of grenades available, all of these grenades have already been fired with mass, for what the West now has to massively add its own artillery systems because here there is still a caliber available that was the standard in the West, the 155 mm caliber, and with that they are trying to re-realize this supply of gloves, which we have in the summer. The situation was that on the Russian side around 60 to 70,000 grenades were fired every day, and on the Ukrainian side between 20 and 25,000 cards were fired, that is, 100,000 grenades were fired there every day, that is, they had millions of grenades that were They shot when they were On the other hand, if you look at photos of Pack Mut or Artemisco or Solidar, then it looks like the part of 1916 or Isson 1917, so a quality of war that we do not have the expected possibilities and I will give you an example of the fields that are still in the United States.

Combined with what they heard at the beginning of the war, after several weeks the West used about 530 large ballistic missiles, the intelligence services said in unison that this must have been because that was how many did the Americans use in Iraq in June 2003 of the year we were at 2,800 in August at 3,500 and recently Mr. President Zelensky said that more than 4,700 capitalist cruise missiles and Iranian drones were used, which has never happened before in the history of war? and we don't know what these fields are like, so I would be very careful with predictions that everything will be over in a few weeks and I would prepare for the fact that this war will last a long time and that if "We want Ukraine to win this war, we have to try to support them massively, which means we have to support our weapons factories, if so, they do not exist and they are trying to produce what Ukraine needs here.

They also just mentioned the place." in eastern Ukraine. Bach Courage, could we maybe briefly show the map again where we can see everything in the places where the front line is and there? Then let's look at Basmut. You just described the images you saw there. Maybe Can you tell us again what kind of fights are happening, how they are developing and why this place is so hotly contested and what is happening there? You understand that the tonbass has a special meaning and that since 2014 there have been these first ones. fighting in the separatist areas there once the Russian armed forces on the national holiday of August 25, 2014 there were also these ceasefire lines as a result of the Minsk train Ukraine has concentrated more than 40% of its ground forces in the dominance in the years after 2014 "And this volume has been preparing for this attack by the Russians for eight years.

Ukraine has always said that the Russians will return. The West did not want to believe it. Ukraine has three deeply staggered defense positions there, defensive Positions that can be compared in the expansion in part with the Atlantic elections in Normandy in 1944 and the Russians are trying to break through these defensive positions with the aim of also going to the oblastung and now taking them one by one, they have three places administered for break the first line that was in the summer in passner, which was this cauldron battle of this casual size of 40 of 40 x 40 km, they also managed it in pisky recently and in Marinka and they can also appear in rear mode if they are there.

Here they managed to pass the first line and find themselves in front of the second mini. Their hope is to also create the second and third line and then be able to advance into the open field. So far they have not succeeded. like that, but they're still marching slowly and steadily before two to a very, very small extent, but with this massive artillery support they still manage to do it. There are always setbacks, such as the use of the American national system in the summer, where these ammunition depots were then completely destroyed. Here Russia has adapted and loosened this ammunition, which means that the momentum can continue again and Russia has controlled itself in the south by withdrawing its forces personally, actually comparable to a situation in 1940, that is, the Russians.

They have 30,000 men here unharmed through the fog. They have retreated to the strong southern side and have been able to release forces hitherto centrally deployed south of Zaporoscia and there to stop an advance in the direction of Militopol in Ukraine, but above all they have their elite. units of the wrong mega are now available to potentially use on the cathedral and further increase the pressure there, i.e. the problem is that Ukraine is now back in a purgatory on the bombs in this war of attrition, having already been dragged into en spring and summer. There are also more comments and questions from the community.

So I would like to install it at this point, for example, from the user thinks and then acts, it says that when you approach this situation there is not only a lack. of supplies, but also the lack of soldiers in Ukraine to solve that. You assess that yes, that is the next challenge we have. It must be said that Europe is fighting in Ukraine until the last Ukraine. You can address that in the same way, that is, Ukraine is in terms of deploying soldiers that I am alone and now you ask. In front of you, on the one hand, you have 144 million people in Russia, which has a theoretical potential of 30 million reservists who can even be deployed, of which hundreds of thousands have now begun to be recruited and there are not those 2,300 ,000 possibilities, much more in December and January.

On the other hand, we have Ukraine, if you count the number of refugees, there are 35 million who are still in the country where the fifth or sixth mobilization is taking place, according to the counter, that is, all those under 60 years of age are recruited and if there is not a black swan moment now, so to speak, a disturbing event on the Russian side or even on the Ukrainian side, if I can say that it is a purely numerical calculation, a purely numerical calculation when it can no longer be based on the number of soldiers, it doesn't matter. how many weapons they can supply, if Ukraine no longer has soldiers then it will simply be difficult and that is why it is so crucial that the longer they wait and do not support Ukraine, the greater the attrition of these soldiers, so to speak, which Russia is leading in the fight and therefore the moment is so crucial to support Ukraine and Ukraine says that too, but we are a little lost and we are still radiating the situation that we are in this conflict that could not get ahead of yourself like that.

We say it all the time and we didn't prepare for it, it just gave us a cold in the chest and now this is the preface to war and it won't go away, that's what. The problem on the other side, of course, is also reports and reports. We see that the Russian army also suffers losses and also sends reservists to war, but this is also the opposite and again the question is probably how this will evolve. Of course, the Russian army has massive losses, quote. There is a very prominent voice here, General Miley, US General Materiel Chief, who recently came across two very interesting things, except that the first claim was that Russia has so far suffered about 100,000 men who have been killed and associated, an almost incredible number, but he also said Ukraine and that was the first time it was made public in this way that the same number of soldiers were lost due to mortal wounds and then he said between 40 and 50,000 civilians.

He also fell and pointed out that the success of Ukraine could offer the possibility of negotiation, but he really put numbers in his mouth for the first time and imagined them, so in nine months we suffered several hundred thousand dead and wounded, something that we did not has happened. It hasn't been seen in this quality for a long time and it's not a place we don't care like in Syria or somewhere else, but it's right on the border of Europe. Europe is now required to defend the values ​​it was so proud of or decide in RAS how to move forward with this.

Yes, absolutely now you are also talking about the opportunity to negotiate. Since there are questions from the Nemodo community, we should not aim for peace negotiations right now instead of constantly talking about weapons and future development. That is a political decision that European leaders must make, together with the United States. I have to get over this and say it. Either we fight this war to the end or we decide how we can't and start negotiations. What we are doing now is hesitating, doubting and not knowing how to continue here while Ukraine is being dismantled piece by piece.

A follow-up question from Ronny. There is one more aspect to this and another level beyond that. Maybe it's your assessment because if these talks happen, it is hypothetical, it is not the current situation, but it is Then Ronny asks if it is possible for Ukraine to have peace with Russia in the long term to guarantee or, in your opinion, would a change of system be necessary in Russia? This question will be answered by historians and at the same time the historian will explain to us that it was completely logical that it happened this way, we do not know that, in principle we are facing a Door that we have just opened and they do not know whatthere is behind her. , there is still a lot of speculation, we still have a nursing case, a coming and going on both sides, the operational success of Ukraine, the strategic attrition on the part of the Russians, statements that one side is no longer confused with going all the way , you will see it in the coming weeks and months.

It must also be said very clearly that it is also Ukraine's decision how far it wants to go here, how far it can transfer deprivations and sacrifices to the population as such and, of course, also the Russian side, Russian culture, Russian history shows that The population in Russia tends to stay very united in times of crisis and support the tyrant, no matter how brutal he is and what he does in this war. continue until the end because one hopes it because they will survive and they must not forget that Russian propaganda does it very well because they said we are not fighting against Ukraine not one of the best the EU the car is fighting against us they are looking at this store this Z does not mean Sabo Bede, so rodner means sieve, it was because it means the Russian word sadist, that is, the word defense, which means that they are carrying out a special operation under the word defense. , which is very important to understand and the Russian narrative and of course there will be a lot of opposition to this war in Russia and every mother will cry and her son will cry and every woman her husband will cry, but the point is as long as there is no moment. comparable to this October 1917, what I see here this war will continue and that means of course that thousands of hundreds of thousands of soldiers and the front come and confront Ukraine to take them, although they are still brave and morale is high , but they are simply sold out and that is the problem we have.

Negotiations have shown that wars can be resolved and if you look back at them, you can see that conflicts often began in a euphoria of faith in both. sides that would win, then it went into an increasing phase of attrition, like in a boxing match, where you were exhausted and then you lay in each other's arms and finally it came through the referee Separately, more or less to a possibly partial situation Let's think about the Korean War, for example, where we still have a border line to this day that still has its basis in the outcome of the Korean War, which actually hasn't ended to this day, so which may well be something like that also how Ukraine is possible at the moment they say no, we are going to the end and Russia is not ready for negotiations but they also say that here we will achieve our goals and that is the situation we have, yes, the status quo of Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Federal Army today here with us at ZDF, thank you very much for sharing your ideas and also your knowledge and experiences here with us.

Thank you also for the comments on the questions regarding the current situation of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. As you know, today we will report on the situation live here on ZDF and in the coming days and weeks we will continue to try to clarify the situation and create facts and do it here and then we'll be happy if you do it again next time. This is our starting point, thank you very much, first of all, have a good afternoon, goodbye.