'Emergency' Fed rate cut by June, only 6 U.S. banks will be left by 2025 paving way for CBDC - Dowd

I'm here, Michelle McCoury, thanks for joining us. The Federal Reserve has raised interest

rate

s to the highest level since 2007. And central

banks

around the world continue to adjust their policies to combat inflation, while my next guest warns that we are now on the brink of a crisis. a global sovereign debt crisis forecasts a very bleak outlook for the United States expecting a hard recession more bank failures are a potentially controlled implosion leading to banking sector consolidation with a very dystopian end result Edward Dowd is the founding partner of Finance Technologies He has more than three decades of experience in finance, including working as a portfolio manager at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.

Edward, thank you for joining us, thank you for having me today, I really appreciate your time, I appreciate your vision, as terrifying as it may be. We have a lot to analyze, but let's start slow with the latest from the FED: The FED increased its range by 25 basis points to the 4.75 to 5 range. Now Jerome Powell is quite convinced that there

will

be no pivot that says the cuts Rates are not in the base case, but the bond market indicates otherwise: The 10-year Treasury yield fell to three and a half percent on Wednesday, that's a drop from 4.2 percent in the Peak in October, the yield is down 14 in the last few days and you We are saying that the FED funds curve is discounting a very different message than what Powell

will

have us believe, breaking it down, yes, so I haven't checked it today , but until yesterday, after the announcement and after he spoke about the FED fund.

The futures curve, which is the overnight lending

rate

, is discounting interest rate cuts, so we are talking about the bond market and the other indication is the three-month Treasury bill, which is not a futures contract, in this rate cycle it has been trading above. the discount rate set by the Federal Reserve and now, since the banking crisis emerged with Silicon Valley Bank and others, three-month treasury bills are trading below the discount rate, so there is a flight to the safety and quality and people are shortening their duration sell stocks and prepare for a storm that is the wisdom of the market that is what the market tells you so people have different opinions on this but I am a student of the market and when the market is telling me something I pay attention and the market is saying that Federal Reserve Chair Powell is probably going to have to not just pause, but start cutting and if this, if this futures interest rate curve holds, I see an

emergency

Fed rate cut sometime in the next three months. a minimum, that's my prediction, um, and the other thing I want to touch on is very bleak and again, look, I'm not a fatalist.

I'm not someone who likes, you know, being pessimistic and fatalistic. I just study the facts. and asset markets and the economy, you know, my team in fintech we do a lot of deep economic analysis. We called a recession in November of last year and at that time we saw a recession that was going to be more uh in the order of the 2000 2001 recession and the 1990 recession now, unfortunately, we're looking at a hard recession, hopefully, nothing systemic like the great financial crisis, but that remains to be seen. What happened in November 2022 was very dark. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 supply was negative and why is it important?

This has

only

happened five times since 1868, including this one, the last time it happened was in 1930, the Great Depression, so this is a big deal and is an indication that credit is contracting. at a very rapid pace, okay, and the lifeblood of all of our economies is absolutely credit and I want to break down that M2 thesis into what it means, but I just want to highlight what you said: expect an

emergency

rate cut in the next three months. right now, which would likely lead to continued economic deterioration, more bank failures, something that is happening globally outside of the Fed's control, such as a sovereign debt crisis and/or another major European bank going under again, which happened is what was totally predictable when raising interest rates after 14 years of zero interest rates up to 500 basis points in 12 months, you have losses on bonds in what we call insurance, even treasury bonds that are safe from a credit outlook they have massive losses so this is a um this is a duration problem is there are different types of risk in bonds there is credit risk which is the great financial crisis this is interest rate risk or duration risk and it's just bond math and when you buy a bond at one percent and it goes up to five percent you have lost a lot of money and that's why these bonds in the balance sheets of the

banks

and the balance sheets of the speculators have lost an enormous amount of money, yes, and you're anticipating a total of four cuts this year, that's what the market says.

As of yesterday, that could change, which I suspect will happen again. I'm not in the room, but I think things will get worse and the market anticipates they will get worse. When they get worse, the FED will hold an emergency meeting and force a rate cut. What kind of message would that signal send to the markets? How would it be received? So, there's some interesting data on this, so, uh, what everyone seems to think that when interest rates are lowered is bullish for asset prices, that's usually true in a bull market, uh, in the markets. bearish, that's not true and we follow three different asset classes and as long as these states, these three asset groups are synchronized to the downside.

They are called checkmate charts, they basically trump the Fed's ability to control the money supply and we saw stocks peak in January of '22. Commodities peaked in June of '22 and what finally we were ready to wait was for interest rates to peak and we believe. are, as the three-month Tebow indicates, below the discount rate, so when that happens, the Federal Reserve, and this happened in the recession of 2000 and 2001 and in the great financial crisis, you have to remember that the The Federal Reserve began cutting rates in 2000 and the stock market did not. It won't bottom until 2002.

They started cutting interest rates in 2007 early 2008 and we didn't bottom out until 2009. So if the FED does what you suggest or what I suggested and they give signs that they're going to start to cut rates, that's when The real damage starts because it's an indication that even they are afraid of what they don't know and don't see, so it will be a very bad sign for the market, IMHO, yes, As you said, it's typically bad. The news has been good news for the markets, but there comes a point where the markets begin to lose faith that the FED can, in fact, march toward the rescue.

Here the FED has been successful with its quantitative tightening program. I mean, that seems to be working if you look, the M1 money supply, which has decreased from a trillion dollars since its peak in March 2022, that you knew about by Design, but you pointed out, as you just mentioned, the decrease in M2 as a sign that we are We are in for a very nasty recession, as historically indicated, so let's break that down in more detail, so generally speaking, recessions cause a contraction and credit and are usually close to zero line, but they never actually cross it.

So we've had cases where M2 got close to negative growth year after year, but it never got there, not even in the great financial crisis, we never got above the zero line, we're not even in crisis mode yet and we're already about below zero, so what that tells me and other market participants that I talk to say that credit is that your credit defaults are being held by the banks and the credit card companies, so the Credit is contracting at an alarming rate and this does not bode well for the economy as a whole because unfortunately credit is the lifeblood of the economy and the global economy and that is going to be a big problem and economic activity will slow down. is going to reduce to a level it will stop over time, like in the great financial crisis, the good news is that inventories will run out and eventually you will know that they realized it is a cycle and the FED has been trying to prevent this cycle to happen for 14 years and unfortunately, um all This easy money is going to make this hangover worse and it might have been if they had let a recession happen earlier in this cycle, but for some reason the powers that be didn't seem to think the system could handle even even the slightest of problems. slowdowns, so we've had this lethargic economic growth for over a decade of very low economic growth. financial crisis debt problem with more debt, so now we are in an even worse situation than in 2008, so we have to pay the bill and the bill is in the form of defaults and bankruptcies, so Edward people can argue: We have heard this before, we have heard that we are at a tipping point several times before and the can just falls by the wayside, why are you so sure that this is it, that this is the end of the road? time a couple of things, so what did we see last year?

We saw some things we had never seen before in the markets. We saw inflation go from one to two percent to nine percent of headline inflation, while at the same time the US dollar was moving forward in a commodity inflation cycle that had never happened before, typically inflation It's a function of the monitor, it's generally a monetary phenomenon, so we saw two things, uh, uh, commodities went up and the dollar went up and my thesis then was that the dollar went up as a signal. of credit crunch globally because many international players have issued debt denominated in dollars, that debt amounts to around 15 trillion, so as the dollar rises, it is increasingly difficult for them to pay and so, we suspect that because of the coveted lockdown supply chain disruptions that the FED should never have started raising in the first place global economies are too fragile and we had some interest rate indicators showing that this is going to sound crazy but that The Fed's rate-hiking cycle should have ended before it began, it meant the three-month Treasury bill shot through the discount rate, and typically that has been the end of a rate-hiking cycle. rate hike, this time they kept going up towards what I think was a global economic slowdown and here we are and that's why I think this time it's too difficult for them to turn on the money spigots and prevent what's going to happen from happening.

I think it's beyond their control, so we're starting to see cracks in the system. We are certainly starting to see strain on the system. banking system as you mentioned, we have had the collapse of Silvergate Signature Bank Silicon Valley Bank in the US uh Credit Suisse stirring in Europe it is true that it has always been a problematic bank, but we are starting to see major cracks in the system, what do you anticipate? It's happening there, so let's look at something that happened over the weekend, so Credit Suisse married UBS, yes, yes, a shotgun wedding and apparently the banking authorities and the government decided to throw out their existing laws and rewrite the rules, You

only

do that if what you're seeing is so terrifying that you decide to throw out the rule of law and make up new rules because that's a signal, so I'm an analyst, when authorities violate their own laws.

It tells me something that what you're seeing is a big problem, so I suspect and hope this plays out. I hope they try to plug the dam and it is a slow, controlled implosion because the speed will make everything spiral out of control and have unintended consequences. so I think they're just going to keep playing what I call whack-a-mole, stick their finger in the dike, everyone you know breathes a sigh of relief for a couple of weeks or months and then there's another problem and then they walk and then Until the end, I hope that's the case because, to be honest, you know I don't want to see a quick panic that's not good for any of us and is this a similar scenario to what you're predicting for the us, as another bank, we are potentially on the verge of collapse and then as you say the regulators manage to plug that hole while another one springs up on the other side, such an elaborate painting for us, yes, the United States is going to be similar to what is happening in Europe so Europe the European Central Bank has problems the banks in Europe have problems so we are going to see exactly the same thing that we saw with Credit Suisse and UBS we are going to see forced marriages uh Unfortunately, the Wall Street Journal again.

I'm not trying to foment panic. The Wall Street Journal on Friday of last week said that 186 banks in the US. Regional banks are in trouble, so if that's true, which I think it is,it will be more and more difficult for them they will be

left

alone and they will be suitors and forced marriages it is my analysis, my prediction and you know, the question that they have asked me is well, it is intentional, well, I don't know, but it will end in the In the Same place, if you wanted to introduce Central Bank digital currency, wouldn't it be better to have only six banks in the US, all systemically important, basically run by the government?

So it may not be a plan, but that will be what happens in my analysis and if it is a plan, well, it's a pretty evil plan, but again, I'm not in the room, but I see this developing, it's Well, let's break that down a bit before we start breaking down the idea of ​​a central bank digital currency. which for our viewers, as we have discussed on the show before is a form of fiat currency issued by central banks that is potentially programmable to work or not in certain transactions and situations and that also allows the authority to monitor each transaction made, but before that we get into that dystopian end game that you say can or It may not be by design, we said 186 banks are at risk of collapsing, well, I don't really think I wouldn't say collapse, but the Wall Street Journal pointed out 186 banks that can have problems and you don't even know all the breakdowns, but this. this is again this is this issue is from The Wall Street Journal okay, I don't want to be, I don't want to be accused of fermenting fear and loathing, but that was reported by The Wall Street Journal, which tells me it's serious business . problem, so you're essentially seeing a consolidation of the banking sector and I think you've said that you expect six banks to weather this crisis, yes, the sixth systemically important bank in the U.S. and I think that's Wells Fargo, Citibank, JPMorgan, maybe Goldman Sachs.

I don't know, I don't have the exact name, I know there's the big four, JP Morgan is the biggest, um, that's what I thought, it seems likely to be honest, I hope I'm wrong, I hope that doesn't happen. Some regional banks remain. I definitely live in Hawaii. Bank of Hawaii does not participate in state capital market lending to residents of the state of Hawaii. It is a very conservative safe bank. People have been asking me if I got my money out. I haven't done it about the bank because I don't care about the Bank of Hawaii, so there will be some regional banks

left

, but I think the largest ones are going to disappear, they are in trouble and why is this so problematic for economic freedom? we have this consolidation of the banking sector so local banking is obviously better because you meet a lot of bankers who give credit based on personal relationships and if you consolidate into Six National Banks it becomes very formulaic and those who are the friends of the people in the top get the loans and everyone else starves isn't it, but that's how it works and that's why local banking is the lifeblood of the US economy and it's at risk of disappearing and it's going to be more difficult to get capital if you are a small business if you are an entrepreneur you will have to go begging from those who have all the capital it is a consolidation of capital it is too much money and too few hands, that is monopolistic, at least in the old days, you could get a loan if you had a good business plan and, or an honest citizen, your local banker knew you and they would give you a law, that's going to work. path of the dodo bird and that will have a uh uh that's not good for freedom that's not good for people who want to take charge of their own lives um working for giants I've worked for giant corporations before and I prefer to work for myself, and you are seeing, the end game here will be five or six major banks which will then be subject to greater government control and supervision, effectively nationalizing the banking sector to some extent, which you say paves the way for the digital Central Bank . currency that will be implemented in such an elaborate way, so I researched the Central Bank digital currency and saw some of its members talking about it.

The Bank for International Settlements (forgot their name) gave a speech about a year and a half ago in which they basically said, uh, it's a technical thing, it's basically in their own words, it's a way of controlling how money is used, essentially, so what does that mean? Well, right now, 100 bills in your pocket, no one can tell you what to do with them, but if it's at the central bank and you happen to be a dissident talking about a topic that you know the state doesn't want you to talk about. You may be attacked and stop your ability to make transactions.

There are also a lot of social controls that could be implemented. Say the state wanted to start worrying about methane farts from cows and wanted to restrict how much meat you're allowed to eat, they can impose quotas and if they get what they want, the technology or the credit, everything will be linked. I'll go to the register, mark your meat and the woman behind the register or the man would say: Sorry, I can't do this transaction for you, it's full end-to-end control, that's what it is, yeah, you . I know it's a very Orwellian scenario, but like you say, when the government can monitor your spending and program a currency to work or not to perform certain transactions or maybe put a premium on it if it's like you've flown 20 times this month.

For the sake of argument, you have exceeded your carbon footprint regardless, this doesn't work and you have to buy another plane ticket or you do, but with a premium attached, but what is the timeline you anticipate for these bags to collapse? ? because you said a controlled implosion, so for these banks to collapse so that there is a consolidation and then for the

cbdc

s to be implemented essentially over what period of time, if they are going to control it, they need 12 to 24 months, yes, 24 months before . we're down to six banks, uh, if it's controlled properly, that's the controlled version, okay, yeah, yeah, if it's fast, then all hell breaks loose and I don't want to talk about that, but look, there are executive orders already written for Biden. about

cbdc

, there are already white papers at the FED, things are moving faster than I would have thought and you know, look, if I were a central banker and I wanted to introduce the Central Bank digital currency, I would do it in the end of a crisis. when everyone is begging for relief and everyone is afraid and then you offer the solution, that's what I would do.

I'm not saying that's what they're going to do, but if I wanted everyone to come together, I would basically when there's a maximum amount of fear and people want to turn to an authority to save them, that's, uh, this is the implication then that this is by Design. I have no proof, but what I see happening is inevitably going to happen. Anyway, I'm not in the room, but yeah, you could speculate that it's by Design and you wouldn't be crazy for saying so. No, you wouldn't be crazy to say it again. I always like to reference that.

This expression does not attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity, but there comes a point where there is so much collective stupidity where there is one misstep after another that one has to begin to wonder if perhaps there is a plan. somewhere and Again it's pure speculation and I hear your point that you don't have any evidence to support this, but let's talk about that executive order that you mentioned and that is executive order 160 47 that President Biden signed into law on March 22 and that does not facilitate the development of a central bank digital currency or Fedcoin and there has been progress on that front;

In fact, some people say that the FED Now payment system, which will be fully launched in July and, coincidentally, will be launched in the middle of a banking crisis. potentially setting the rails for this, but again, Edward, on the positive side, there has been some pushback here from politicians against this. We've had Congresswoman Emma, ​​the House majority, push back on the CBDC anti-surveillance bill and he wants to make sure there is oversight. on the FED before any type of digital currency is issued, he maintains that any digital dollar must uphold American values ​​of privacy, individual sovereignty, and free market competitiveness, that that must be maintained.

Recently, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came out and said no, no. cbdc in Florida and raising awareness about what exactly a cbdc is and we also had Senator Ted Cruz coming out this week and speaking out against cbdcs and the potential threat they pose to economic freedom privacy and how they can be an Orwellian tool of surveillance and control Senator Cruz introduces legislation to prohibit the Federal Reserve from establishing a retail CBDC, so with this rejection, is this inevitable or is there a way that perhaps legislation or even protests can prevent this from being implemented . I hope this can be prevented.

I'm really hopeful because there seems to be a big awakening of a lot of people who used to think I was crazy, all of a sudden. I have a lot of credential experts who want to talk to me, so this isn't crazy. Talk, this is it and this is what they're trying to do, whether or not they're going to use it for evil. I mean, I'm of the opinion that when there's that much power you're going to use it for evil, that's the way. It's human nature and I very much hope that it's not inevitable, but it takes a massive awakening of all kinds of people, programs like yours that are doing that are being discussed now on a political level and you know we can do it. our own personal protests I don't use my credit card for anything I can, so when I go to a restaurant I pay in cash when I go to Costco I pay in cash when I go to the gas station I don't avoid opting for even with credit cards or you know a way rudimentary of this, but you know we all have credit scores, just start using cash and I went to Washington DC to testify before Senator Ron Johnson on another issue in December and I was at Dulles Airport. and I went to buy some water and they told me we don't take cash and I held up my 50 bill and said this is legal tender I'm not buying it and he and the guy at the register said well no no . no I'll put it on my card just give me the cash so he had already received this type of feedback from many others and he had a side business where he was so the good news is it seems like people are at least there. aware of this cashless um uh this step towards cashless is a first step before digital currencies and using cash is a way of protesting against us and I would love to see everyone start using cash only when you go out, that the cash forget about credit. card, okay, cash is King, look, you know, Edward, you're saying that fortunately this is becoming more aware of people in the mainstream are becoming more aware of this now, generally, you know, you talk to people and they paint a similar scenario, um and one. you could argue well, you know they're in the gold sector, they have an agenda, their agenda is to sell gold, they're talking about their book or, conversely, because we're seeing similar themes and similar concerns in blockchain and crypto. conferences and then similarly people will say, well you know they have an agenda, they want to talk about Bitcoin, that's the game here, what would your agenda be in saying this is coming.

I mean, this doesn't really factor into anything saying, uh, what. products that you are marketing, yes, so I am not marketing any products. I am an analyst. I like to predict what's coming, so I'm putting my reputation at risk by not receiving any kind of profit from plugging Bitcoin, gold or silver. I'm not involved in those markets. God bless you. I have nothing against gold, silver or Bitcoin, but I'm just analyzing what I see coming, yeah, so I'm just giving you my genuine best guess and I've been in the credit markets and stock markets for 30 years and I know how the game works and this is where the analysis leads me to this endgame, okay, we're still a hustle, although somehow agenda C could get derailed if there's enough pushback. against, um, that's my understanding, but can anything derail the broader implosion that you're seeing? uh no, um, no, there is going to be a new system, uh, the dollar, uh, is at the end of its um, uh, the dollar is a Fiat. debt based credit system so for every dollar created there is an associated debt of one dollar and constant credit creation is needed to keep it going and N2 going negative is a bad sign so the reason why What they want to introduce the cbdc is that they know that We are like at the end of this epic debt bubble super cycle and that it is going to implode, whether they want it or not, so if you know that it is going to implode and you are the people who designed this or maybe you didn't.

I didn't design it, but you've come to the conclusion that it's at the end, wouldn't you like to introduce a new system and be on top of it? That's why they want to take us to cbdc. I'm suggesting that I need to protest that and we global citizens need a seat at the table of the new monetary system because you know for years and decades monetary systems are discussed in the back door, uh, rooms, Bretton Woods, uh, there have been a couple of those and then we got away from gold in the70s and we had the petro dollar and that gave the US the ability to print unprecedented amounts of money and borrow as we basically exported our dollar based Fiat system to the world so the world has Basically we have been funding the US lifestyle for over 30 years, so we need to figure this out.

The question is whether the general population will be aware of this or whether the general population will be aware of this or enough of us to have a seat at the table if we don't do it. if we take a seat at the table then we have to create a new table and that's where the Bitcoin blockchain people come in and there will be a black market economy and if we go the route of full control of the CBDC, that's I guess again, I'm just analyzing, you're just analyzing. I don't understand that there are no vested interests in any sector or asset class here, but if a cbdc is inevitable, you foresee a black market where or potentially gold, Bitcoin is used. is used both are used yes, there will be something and you know, if they win, I will be part of the resistance, yes, I will, I will declare myself, I will. be part of the resistance, my two gentlemen, uh, Carlos and Yuri, in my firm, they were working on the issue of the magic juice vaccine, we have worked a lot there, but we have done it all pro bono.

Next, we will create a hedge fund and then use it to fund alternative systems in the future, so we are already thinking about the future, we are thinking about that, you know, there will be other systems and we are in war games. That's all well and good, but again, before we get into it, you know the potential of a central bank digital currency and everything that that can entail because, again, this is still potentially preventable, although you're seeing some laying the groundwork with digital IDs becoming more prevalent. and that ties into the need for a digital wallet and that ties into the Central Bank digital currencies and you're looking at a system failure that, as you say, creates the right setup for a big reset, so to speak, but in At some point in this process you have said that you still anticipate the dollar and that, ultimately, you are still long overdue for the dollar to fail.

I think that's how you described it, especially because we have a global sovereign debt crisis with other economies that are affected by what's happening, so explain that scenario well. The dollar is the world's reserve currency right now and there is $15 trillion of US dollar debt, so as the dollar rises it is an indication that it knows about global credit stress and potential sovereign debt defaults. eventually, and if now people ask me. Is the dollar going to disappear? Is it going to reach zero? The answer is I don't know, but what I do know is that the Fed wants to be on top of the new world order, whatever that is, so people say, "Oh, it's the Fed." It's going to disappear, no, the FED is trying to direct and control what comes next, so I don't know what will happen after the dollar, if it is a global Central Bank digital currency, I don't know, but what I do know it's if those in charge of the current system aren't going to put their hand up and say oh ok my god guys forgive him for that and leave you know they're trying to control and reestablish the dominance and unfortunately the central bank system is working". a system that is inherently unstable and has led to wars in the past.

I see kinetic wars on the horizon, not just Ukraine. I see global conflict as a result of the filling of the dollar. Well, let's analyze that because we are seeing de-dollarization. Crane conflicts, such as the increased use of the dollar as a weapon, we are seeing many countries move away from the economic dominance of the United States. The BRIC alliance, for example, will discuss a new reserve asset that will potentially rival the US dollar this August in Durban, South Africa. We are seeing new alliances forming very quickly. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently concluded a visit to Moscow just before China mediated the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, long-standing enemies now resuming relations. diplomatic relations.

Both countries have expressed interest in joining the potential major BRIC Alliance. The powers here, we touched on the petro-dollar issue, perhaps they are compromised, we know that India has been buying Russian oil using rupees and rubles and Saudi Arabia has said it is open to stopping pricing oil in dollars, so that all of this comes together and certainly threatens. The role of the United States as the dominant currency of the Global Reserve. Do you consider this Brics currency, potentially backed by raw materials, to be the rival of the dollar? I'll ask you a question before that happens.

What do you think the United States and its allies will do there? It's going to be a kinetic war, so I don't know, whatever comes, it's going to be a global crisis with wars, unfortunately again, I'm not, I don't want to be a doomsayer, but that's how my analysis leads me to this. What I believe is that if the dollar is threatened, the CIS, those in power will not go away quietly until late into the night, there will be something kinetic or something and you know, there will be a propaganda campaign to launch it. to American citizens under the color of freedom and democracy probably not.

I have always maintained that if you are the king of reserve currencies you are not going to give up your throne without a fight and it seems more likely that there will be some kind of military response that you say will result in kinetic warfare. What would that war potentially be like? Who is on which side of the conflict? I think Europe and the US, I think India would side with the US and then the others are against it, so again, this is all speculation, all speculation, yeah, I mean, in the end , at the end of the day, we are heading towards a financial crisis, an introduction of potentially an introduction of cbdc and bricks that don't want to be. part of any new system that is developed because they know that the old system was not very favorable to them because we have established our dominance through the US dollar, which is really the secret weapon of the US government, it is the dollar and It is reserved for the world. currency status, so it is our secret weapon and they know that that is why they are trying to do what they are doing and that, as I said, decisions will be made internally at the highest levels of government that that cannot be allowed and then we'll know, go to war, whatever it is, that's again just my analysis and yes, I hope I'm wrong, yes, no, I get it, I hope you're wrong too.

I've had several guests on the show express a very similar sentiment and yes, I hope they're all wrong, but I think it's important to present these potential scenarios to our viewers so they can better prepare for this type of event should it unfold. Anyone watching this interview should listen to his analysis and understand that it's mostly based on data analysis and speculation, but nonetheless, what should anyone do right? I've been recommending people shorten my investment advice. I don't give specific investment advice about stocks. or advice on timing. I've been telling people for the better part of 12 months to raise cash in their portfolio as risk assets go down and you can get back into the market at the bottom of this crisis and that's been a good decision that people has taken.

He thanked me for raising the cash. I don't think it's too late to do it yet. And you know, if you're worried about your bank, which I'm not, if you're under the insured amount, don't do it. Don't take your money out of the bank, but if you have money well above the insured amount, you'll know that Treasury bills aren't a bad option. Three-month treasury bills can go into the treasury for direct investments directly, so that's the monetary aspect and you. We are also going to have to adopt a new way of thinking, there will be a lot of uncertainty and you have to be comfortable with that, you have to be comfortable with uncertainty and I have found that when you are, you are not actually in fear and anxiety, so you can see the opportunities because, although things are going to get crazy, there will be many opportunities for those who stay alert.

You have some cash on hand and look at the gold people. I don't care about people. buy some gold, physical gold, silver, okay, don't have all your eggs in one basket. I would have a six month supply of food just in case and that's it, it's the best thing you can do and live your life and search. Opportunities when everyone else is losing their minds. I don't want to sound alarmist, yes, but usually these types of scenarios lead to public unrest. Know? Should we prepare for civil unrest? Alianza, a major insurance company, has political violence and civil unrest, uh, potentially. triggered by an economic crisis as one of the top 10 global risks in 2023.

Is this something you anticipate happening as the economy falters and political conflicts potentially intensify? Do you foresee things descending into any level of civil unrest here in the United States? He says, hey, I don't want to be a doomsayer, I can't control what other people do, but if there is an economic collapse and there is an understanding of all kinds of corruption that, as you know, is emerging as we speak, there may be some social unrest and Because a lot of your viewers and a lot of people that I've talked to on different podcasts are aware of what's going on, so their mindset is good and they're prepared.

Unfortunately, there are many people who don't have it. a clue as to what is going on so they will be surprised and shocked by this and their first reaction will be emotional and angry so I wouldn't be surprised if we see social unrest when the realities that I see and many of us see being done reality, so I can't control that and I hope people stay calm, but it's not a bad assumption to think that there could be some social unrest, yes, well, again, to be clear, we are speculating, we certainly don't support any of these scenarios but I'm just giving an analysis as these events unfold as to how you think they're most likely to play out but I hope you're wrong Edward I finally know you're about to publish a report on the economic cost. to the US of the covert vaccine gives us a preview of what we can expect there, yes, so I wrote a book called Unknown cause, the sudden death epidemic in 21 and 22.

My team at Finance Technologies and I have We've done extensive research on the economic costs and what we call excess deaths, disabilities and what we just reported this week on vaccine injuries, so those are the three buckets and we finally get the last piece of the puzzle, which is the vaccine injuries and I'll give you a sneak peek. I won't give you the dollar amount, but I will give you the number of people we believe were affected. We have estimated 300,000 vaccine deaths in the US, we have estimated 1.36 million injuries, and approximately 30 unfortunate disabilities. and 13.6 million injuries and are people who chronically miss work and get sick frequently and miss a lot of work.

The data is there, that's about 15 million people in the US that we think have been harmed, we'll put an economic cost on them. that next week and that's about five percent of the US population and we think our number is conservative and to allege the Devil's Advocates here, why are they necessarily as a result of the vaccine? Oh, we've made a stop, we've established all the correlation analyses. Excess deaths are not specifically among US employees and what you need to know about the US employed population is that they are typically healthier and die at a much lower rate than the general US population.

The US included 21 and 22, just one statistic, group life policyholders, the most elite among us in Fortune 500 and mid-sized companies, have 40 access mortality in 2021, that is, between the ages of 25 to 64, and no, 18 to 64, and the US in general. the population had an excess mortality of 32 uh the difference is that some had a choice, others had the mandate and they had to take the job, especially in the Fortune 500 companies and, uh, what you need to know is the Society of Actuaries , these are your numbers, not mine, the Society of Actuaries, uh. They also did a report in 2016 that showed how big of a deal this was for them.

Their group life policyholders die at one-third the mortality rate of the general population in a given year and then disability data from the U.S. Health Bureau labor statistics showed the same thing: We saw a increase in the number of disabled from about 3.2 million out of a base of 30 million over the course of 18 months, 1.7 million of them were employed, so something happened to the employees in our country, their health. the results are worse, that's whyWe blame the vaccine, maybe it's just work, I said, maybe it's just work, maybe it's just that they're employed and have to show up to work every day, yeah, well then we have a problem, look in any direction. the results the results are so bad that if it's not what I think it is, what is it and why don't we talk about it look I'm sorry, Gallows humor, humor, humor is my preferred mechanism here when you're bombarding me with everything. of this potential, uh, death, doom and disaster, um, but you could say that you can take statistics and manipulate them and the data to suit you, you know several different narratives, what would you say to that and what would you say to the people who say it's okay, this guy? crazy, he's a conspiracy theorist, well let's forget about the excess deaths, let's put that aside, let's look at the absence rates that have gone out of control in 2022.

Option rates in the US and work time lost are very constant very constant uh trend line that goes like this for 20 years 2002 to 2000 uh 22 we look closely 2019 was like that from 2020 it went up a little because there were lockdowns and people who got sick these numbers have risen to the standard 13 deviations per above trend in 2022 2022 is 50 percent higher than 2019 in terms of work hours lost and the graph looks like this 13 standard deviations is crazy in my world uh three standard deviations happens at the zero point the three per hundred of the time, so let's say it's not just the data, what's the explanation for what's causing that, that's where we can have the debate, but if it's not what I think, what is it and why aren't the authorities They point it out because it is A statistical anomaly of this type is such a strong signal that our health authorities should be shouting at the top of their lungs that we have a new pandemic, which we are not, and again you lay out the arguments in favor of this in your book because I know that in the epidemic of sudden deaths in 2021 and 2022 and you will have an update soon with a report on the cost of the US economy, Edward, thank you very much take your time and give us a very gloomy forecast and hopefully , inaccurate, but important information for people to really appreciate.

Thank you. Look, if I'm wrong, I'd be happy, but I call it like I see it, unfortunately, thanks. Michelle very good thank you very much and as always thank you for watching the Kitco news I'm Michelle McCoury thank you