This Is What Putin REALLY Wants (It's Not Ukraine*)

This is a map of the former Soviet Union and

this

is a map of

what

Russia looks like today and as you can see

what

was once one giant nation is now fragmented into many different jurisdictions and nations or as Putin sees it, he lost lands that rightfully belong to him. Mother Russia, after all, classified the fall of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century and describes the expansion of the USSR with much frustration by saying that tens of millions of our fellow citizens and compatriots are beyond the limits of Russian territory, all

this

suggests that he dreams of restoring lost Russian power and relevance and on February 24, 2022 the beginnings of this dream would come to light when the leader of the Russian federation, Vladimir Putin, ordered the invasion of Ukraine and changed everything forever and if his actions have anything to do with Ukraine it is part of a larger plan, a plan that I have spent the last month investigating and reconstructing while Putin has denied a dream of reunifying the Soviet Union, it would not be the When he first goes back on his words about Russian military activity it sounds absolutely crazy, but after a full-scale invasion in our modern times it's certainly not impossible, so what would it take for Putin's supposed Soviet revival to come to fruition? become a reality?

He will soon learn that the chess pieces might already be in place and that the tactics he could use to fulfill this dream are very different than what he might think. Some former Soviet nations are already heavily influenced by the Kremlin and may not put up much of a fight if an invasion occurs on their soil, take the case of Belarus days before the invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops showed their military might in the border between Belarus and Ukraine and Europe's last dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, is suspected of sending troops alongside Putin Lukashenko, who has led the country for 28 years.

He also confessed that some rockets have been launched from Belarus towards Ukraine, but this is to be expected as Belarus is strongly tied economically to the Kremlin and the two leaders have a friendly but strange history with massive UN and EU sanctions against the country due to Lukashenko's decision. human rights violations to cling to their power

putin

is their only lifeline the kremlin has financially bailed out belarus before and sent military and financial support to crush mass protests after the hotly disputed 2020 belarusian election ended with lukashenko winning a again, so the relationship between two is currently in a place where one party is highly dependent on the other and this is not by chance, this is by signal, this is demonstrated by the fact that Putin has proposed that Belarus returned to Russia in the past and throughout the country it decreased, but that rejected does not matter much since Putin already has troops in the country around 30 000 to be exact, it would not need much reason either, I mean, he claimed that the large minority Russian ethnicity in Ukraine is a reason to post a quote. special military operation could do the same in belarus even without invasion belarus in its current state raises as an example of what

putin

might want for

ukraine

to have a state directly influenced by the kremlin while presenting itself as an independent nation a kind of soft annexation that we could say, and it is a recipe that could already be in use in other independent criminal nations such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

If you look at a map of Eurasia, you'll see that Kazakhstan, for example, shares its entire northern border with Russia, the largest border it shares with Russia. For the federation, this means that a large-scale direct invasion like the one in Ukraine could prove too difficult as it would spread Russian troops too thin, especially if the conflict continues in other countries, but that's what Putin knows, so that It has never been the plan. It is very likely that he simply negotiated for that northern land through strong influence and an opportunity to do exactly that arose recently. Kazakh President Kasim Jumar Zakayev asked Russia and its allies for help after protests swept the nation earlier this year after decades of government accusations of corruption and inequality in iron-fisted rule frustrated to Kazakh citizens who took to the streets calling for reforms as things escalated. 2,500 troops were sent to deal with the protesters and most of them arrived by plane from Russia.

This aid could very well be used as a negotiating tool to claim even more parts of northern Kazakhstan. You heard that Russia already claims certain parts of northern Kazakhstan and that with such dependents and external allies to aid in unrest, Kazakhstan might have to bow to Putin's whims. As we have seen Belarusian leaders do in the past, a similar situation is now occurring in Turkmenistan, which just went through a strange election, but before I tell you the results of these elections, I just want to emphasize that Turkmenistan is not a monarchy. I'll understand what I mean in a few seconds, so 73 percent of the people apparently voted for this guy, sardar badimu kamerov, who happens to be the son of the previous president, kurban ghouli badi mukhemedov.

Now I'm not saying this election was rigged. or anything, all I'm saying is that Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated him shortly after the results were announced, stating that it was a convincing victory and that Turkmenistan could be especially interesting because of this authoritarian government that the nation has experienced since the fall of the Soviet Union. since it creates the perfect conditions for unrest, furthermore, the transfer of power from father to son could create some tension and Putin could help Turkmenistan in case unrest arose, as he did with Kazakhstan, or he could squeeze the country economically, the latter of which, in turn, has already begun, as the two countries recently signed an agreement linking the economy of Turkmenistan with the Russian Federation, more specifically, this agreement is called the economic cooperation program and will last from 2021 to 2023.

This agreement is hugely important for Turkmenistan, boosting economic activity such as the distribution of natural gas between the two, and may already be working as planned, given that Turkmenistan has not outright condemned any of Russia's actions. in Ukraine, so it seems that Putin is playing the long game here, but if we focus our attention on the Caucasus region which is mainly occupied by Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and of course parts of southern Russia. We see that something interesting is happening, at least in Putin's eyes. Armenia and Azerbaijan are currently in a major conflict over the Nagarno Karabakh enclave located right here.

This enclave is. It is not internationally recognized as sovereign and is not part of Azerbaijan or Armenia despite being surrounded by both countries. Russia could use this disagreement as a reason to send troops and summon help to solve the problem. After all, Russia has previously negotiated. The 1994 peace agreement that initially slowed down the fighting ended, but since the conflict continues to this day, it would be a perfect cover-up story and Putin could easily rally Armenia to his side. I mean, they supported the annexation of Crimea in 2014, while Azerbaijan rejected it, claiming that Nagarana Karabakh belonged to them.

Just as Crimea belonged to Ukraine, another reason why Armenia would probably let Russia fly a group of troops is the fact that it already hosts a Russian military base in the city of Gyanri, giving the Kremlin direct access to the country, but there is a small problem. Armenia is isolated from the Russian border by Georgia and Azerbaijan, meaning Putin would have to pass through Georgia. A nation that already faced Russian invasion in the past allowed this to be done and it's

really

interesting because the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 started exactly the same. In the current Ukraine war, Russia claimed it was aiding separatists in South Ossetia and Abcasia, who declared independence from Georgia much like Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine.

Tensions then rose when Georgia expressed interest in joining NATO. Russia then became interested in backing the separatists, creating an opportunity to intervene after President Mikhail Sakashvili sent troops to the disputed regions to push back Russian-backed fighting. The war lasted five days and Russian troops stopped just 48 hours away. kilometers from the capital from georgia to belize before the ceasefire agreements began russia still has troops in those regions today not to mention the kremlin backed separatists so it's not impossible that something could happen here . Many fear that Moldova could suffer the same fate as they are contesting Transnistria, an unrecognized pro-Russian breakaway from the country, and this is largely due to the troops and, so to speak, Moldova has reason to be nervous.

Putin currently has between 1,500 and 2,000 soldiers stationed in Transnistria and an estimated paramilitary force of 10,000 in Terraspol. In comparison, Moldova's active staff is only around 7,500. There is a pattern here, there is enough division to create a window to many of the former Soviet states and now could be the time Putin decides to exploit that, but there are three main obstacles in his trip: Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. Let's see that these nations are full. -on NATO members and they meet all the requirements, including the role of committing two percent of GDP to finance defense, so they would fall under the attack on one, it is an attack on all protection.

NATO is made up of 30 nations, including the most powerful nation. military in the world of the United States for Putin to dare cross any member of NATO he would have to be prepared for retaliation from these 30 nations and be financially capable of carrying out a war on the main borders surely Russia has 900 000 active military but almost 200 000 of them are dealing with

ukraine

and if you activate those from moldova, georgia and armenia they would simply be stretched too much of course you could take the feared and hopefully unlikely route which is nuclear , a nuclear war is always an imminent threat and Russia has world power.

The largest arsenal of nuclear warheads, but the NATO nations also have theirs, so it is a sure way to kill us all and as much as Putin has declared that interference with Ukraine would bring consequences never before seen in history, the nuclear war does not benefit it either. Mutual assured destruction is too risky, at least I hope so, but if Putin decides that the Baltic States need to be liberated, the shared borders with Latvia and Estonia will make it easier, as will the border between Belarus and Lithuania, but the meeting of troops on these lines would be immediately noticeable and it is very unlikely that Putin

wants

to go directly into an all-out war with NATO.

I think Putin might be testing the waters of the Western response to Ukraine as he plans extensive invasions into the nations we've already discussed and it seems likely, but not certain, that he will stick with non-NATO members, but we'll see. . I mean, if the ultimate goal is to rebuild the Soviet Union, you're going to have to fight NATO, but I feel like it's time to address the elephant in the room. and the question is whether or not russia would have the resources to do this with more sanctions against russia every day. Putin will have to tap into Russia's $300 billion in foreign currency and gold reserves to keep this going.

This fund includes around $132 billion in gold held in the Bank of Russia's own vaults, as well as foreign currency held in the country or abroad in countries like China that have not applied any sanctions against Russia. And if we compare the value of these reserves with the 62 billion that Russia spends on its military in 2021, combined with the price of the invasion of Ukraine, things don't look so bad, an estimate from the Center for Economic Recovery based in Ukraine, a think tank close to the Ukrainian government, has estimated that the first five days of the war may have caused Russia up to seven billion dollars in direct military costs, although most Russian military equipment is produced in the country using domestic raw materials, so Putin could get away with covering those costs even with an inflated ruble, meaning it

really

comes down to what Putin is willing to sacrifice to fulfill his dream and, although I hope nothing of this happening, I still want to know what you think, so leave it in the comments below, but that's it for this video.

Thanks for watching. See you next time