Und er hatte doch recht - Dr. Markus Krall erklärt, wie es in Deutschland weitergeht | WOV Talk

so dear viewers dear friends from the world of valor and alphatrios here they come again ten of the perhaps 15 minutes that we have to see that Michael asked me about current affairs as always with great pleasure and belatedly to all of you first of all a happy Pentecost, I hope We all had a wonderful time with the family and were able to enjoy the wonderful weather we had in Germany, but the good weather immediately goes straight to Medias Rees, specifically when it comes to the question: where are we now, what has evolved ? what has happened since we last met here at this time, what a significant development the recession really is, not only did I predict it in my last posts at the beginning of the year, but I also said that we are actually already in the Through this, now the figures are public.

We have officially reached recession, however the 0.3% contraction in our economy assumed by the official figures is, in my opinion, certainly; I don't want to say false because it could be misunderstood today, but it must be treated with caution. For a relatively simple reason, I think the economy is contracting much faster, we have a huge drop in consumption, which is simply due to the fact that people's disposable income has decreased extremely sharply, consumption has decreased by more than 10%, and disposable income has also decreased significantly, by more than 10%, which is, by the way, the steepest and largest drop in disposable income in this short period of time that we have recorded in Germany since the beginning of the Great Depression in 1929, not only in Germany but throughout Europe and also in other Western countries such as the United States and Canada.

In Australia, people's disposable income is collapsing because of this urban inflationary combination of a shrinking economy and inflation, which is now Here and naturally the question arises: first of all, why is it suddenly so pronounced, why is it so extreme and why is it so strong, especially in Germany? Because if we see that we have a drop in consumption of more than ten percent, Of course, in Germany we do not have an investment boom that can compensate for this. On the contrary, investment conditions are worse than ever and investments are also declining. We can't do anything about exports either.

Growth impulses are also opening up here, on the contrary, for the first time in decades we have a situation of trade balance deficit, which is largely due to the catastrophic energy and climate policy of our government: cheap energy has been abolished and It has been replaced by super expensive energy, so there are no positive impulses from foreign trade here and at the same time we have a public sector that is already overloaded and that can no longer make large expansions in its spending without entering into difficulties that could compensate for it, which means we are certainly not a drop in our economic growth -0.3, but probably -3 - 5 percent, maybe even more if you look closely, which of course is prudent and the question is, of course, what leads to the aggravation here.

I would like to divide the issue into two elements: on the one hand, the issue of a latent or latent banking crisis and, on the other hand, the question of the economic policy of our Minister of Economic Affairs, who I think could be said to have invented the planned and unplanned economy. So he thinks he can plan everything, he creates a planned economy that is basically completely based on the spirit of the Soviet Union or the GDR, so you would think that politicians could plan what they have in mind, but he does it in a way so disordered that it produces an oxymoron, the randomly planned economy, which is actually a completely new phenomenon, has now presented us with its heating law, it is the biggest nonsense that has happened in terms of economic policy in the last 100 years, so that that is already in the league of Venezuela or other countries or Zimbabwe in terms of the effect on the economy, so we do not have a minister of economy at all, we have a Minister of Destruction of Economy now he has attacked us with this heating law mandatory and what is the result that real estate prices in Germany, which had already plummeted by a good 30%, have fallen another 20% due to interest rate increases, because that is approximately the cost of this law of heating, which is around 20%? of the value of the property, you have to spend to implement these crazy measures, but in addition to the fact that this is not possible, it means two things: firstly, the costs of this law exceed the equity of all home owners in Germany, which which means this is not the case.

Less than a complete expropriation of the owner, we must be clear about that because the magnitude of the investments are so large that they basically exceed the assets of the vast majority of the owners and that means that they are ruined, that is, the entire population. The house is more than 80 to 90 percent, if there are no additional reserves somewhere, that are so expropriated that poverty in old age has now been programmed and that, of course, means that the demand for the real estate sector is going down. collapsing catastrophically. We have several banks that for months have not granted large amounts of real estate loans unless they are extended, the real estate sector, which we had already fallen by 60 percent in 2022, is now probably 90 plus And what you are willing to spend on consumption, Of course, it always depends not only on what you earn but also on what you have.

Income and assets are the main drivers of consumption if at the same time disposable income falls by more than ten percent, closer to 14%. and the assets that people own also decrease in value by 20, 30, 50 percent, so that means that consumption has to collapse massively and that means that we slide into a recession that has been decently overcome, which means a recession with simultaneous inflation in exactly the same way. As I have been saying for two years, if I allow myself to say this, that means that we are in the middle of urban inflation and urban inflation is the most difficult animal for economic policy to handle. and the central bank First of all, this brings us to the second question: what is monetary policy doing now?

Monetary policy, which finally came to the conclusion a good year ago that there is inflation that must be fought after the first year of inflation refused to exist at all to take note of it and then trivialized it, trivialized it, declared good for the Greens, declared that monetary policy basically had to be tightened at some point and now realizes that the imbalances that have accumulated for 20 years are so large that we can no longer control it, on the one hand we have the zombification of businesses, meaning business bankruptcies increase with rising interest rates, that's what they're doing right now. but the great wave of company managers is still ahead of that because right now many companies are still living off the little of substance they have.

That means it doesn't increase linearly, but it increases slowly at first and then it will increase. they increase exponentially and the second is, of course, the effect that has already caused the collapse of some banks, that is, the devaluation of bonds, that is, the loss of market value. Loss of bond value of between 15 and 20 billion euros worldwide. until now, which has plunged Silicon Valley Bank into the abyss, which has put the First Republic in difficulties, which has put other banks in difficulties, such as CS is no longer there and Fett has just announced to us that more than 700 banks in the United States, of the 4,000 that still exist, used to be 8,000, but now there are 4,000 left, so more than 700 of them have lost more than half of their capital because they had to accept short-term losses on bonds.

In the case of cross-country skiing. alone, they keep them on the books because of rising interest rates and that means that these institutions are basically no longer operational, they no longer have any ability to take risks, of course, the banks are now being told that it is not necessary Cancel it, you can do miturity today, so you can do this. You don't have to cancel the bonds you bought for listening purposes, you just hold them until they mature and then you get back the face value. That is, of course, a fraud, a yes, and this balance sheet is because if you look at it this way, I imagine that we have two banks, one bank once had equity capital and invested this equity capital in long-term bonds term and then the price fell and now the bank no longer has equity, but you act as if you still have equity and you don't have to pay it off if you can hold it until the maturity date in 10 years because of the 10 year term. old, then it does not have to be written off and is still considered to be healthily capitalized.

Let's imagine the other way around, we have a bank that has 0 equity capital in the current situation and would then buy bonds at the current price. rate with borrowed money and then we would write them down to the value they had immediately two years ago, then we would have a bank that would be completely identical, physically identical to the bank that refrains from depreciating them, but no one would approach the idea of ​​​​buying bonds but at a price low and then say two years ago they were worth more, so now I can write that as the balance sheet value on the balance sheet, that is a big nonsense and fraud that leads to cancer.

The spread of bad balance sheets can extend to the entire national economy. There was a time when we still did not have the so-called International Accounting Standard that makes something like this possible, but we still had the German Commercial Code (HGB). there was a principle of lesser value. Things were always written down at the lowest possible value as a precaution, he was the cautious businessman. Now we are throwing the idol of this issue and this cautious businessman overboard, why, because we can no longer afford to say it. the truth about the balance sheet and if we can no longer afford to tell the truth about the balance sheet, then I think everyone can understand that we are in serious trouble and that leads to the banking crisis, which is currently brewing under the surface. and where every day there are more banks that are losing more money due to this phenomenon and still do not cancel it, so they act as if they are still healthy with a lot of makeup on the balance that this is more and more. and more widespread and that the number of bank runs by bank customers will discover at some point that their bank no longer has equity capital, that these bank runs will increase, that is a matter of time and there is always a gap between Sometimes They last a few days, a few weeks or even a few months, but at some point there is a big one, kind of like last time, at some point a big one comes, there is a panic visor and then the climbing radar goes off.

There and all this brings us back to the question of what is happening. With this world over-indebted, this world has 235 trillion euros in debt, which is two and a half times the amount of debt as the gross national product of the world. The national product of the world product is only 95 trillion euros, which means that we are over-indebted as a planet and for that, I am sorry, because we are in all the major industrialized countries, in all the large economies we have followed the same false monetary policy . In the superstition that we could deal with debt by printing more money and creating more debt, the result was simply more debt and the scheduling of the next crisis even bigger and we will see that too.

Once again, central banks will try to solve the problem. with more debt and therefore raising inflation to the next level, but of course the question still arises: what are we facing? Inflation or deflation, this controversial question that is actually not a controversial question at all, but a logical empirical question. Observation question I explain in a moment that now concerns us. One thing is clear: we have to get out of the global debt overhang, otherwise we will no longer reach equilibrium and get out of the global debt overhang. We will reach balance again. The only question is how and there are exactly two paths to follow: inflation, that is, the devaluation of the debt, all the zeros remain, but the debts are no longer worth anything, depressive deflation and with it bankruptcies and bankruptcies.

This leads to the debts not being paid, they won't be paid because the debtor can't pay them, so they declare bankruptcy, declare their disclosure oath and say the money is gone and then are the debts gone too? debts disappear due to permanence or inflation, which seems paradoxical because in reality both are completely opposite phenomena but both lead to a global apology. The question is which side of the razor blade we are on, in balance, we fall or should we say we are a wire, because the wire is a particularly beautiful image of what we will soon see with central banks.

The central banks are on the cable at a height of 400 meters and there is nothing. below them - it is neither a net nor a double. The ground is there and you areexactly in the middle of this tightrope, now balanced at the maximum distance from both safety points and now you lose your balance, you start swinging back and forth and what what does a tightrope walker do when he loses his balance when turning to the right Yes threatens to fall, tries to orient himself to the left. If he falls to the left, he tries to orient himself to the right to maintain balance.

On the right, in our case, there is inflation. On the left, in our case, there is deflation. That means the central banks are fighting inflation, so if you absolutely have to and the moment you do it, you stumble to the left, threatening to slide leftwards into deflation, that's called a banking crisis, then you have to fight against the banking crisis so as not to fall to the left because otherwise, that will be your end when the banks disappear. So they will turn to the right again flooding the banks with money thus taking inflation to the next level and then they will be right again and down again so they will move restlessly back and forth until they lose so much the equilibrium. that they fall so far to one side that they can no longer turn back and that point will come soon, so I am quite convinced that it has reached the point where the problem can no longer be solved by simply flooding it with debt. can be solved this way without this leading directly to the next level of inflation because we have already seen ten percent inflation and we have even seen almost 46 percent inflation in producer prices, which means that this is not the end of the story if it is decent A flood of money is coming, my estimate of what the bank bailout will cost is 4 to 8 trillion euros, terrible dollars on both sides of the Atlantic and that is not including the rescue measures that will be necessary in China for the really overinflated real estate market, which means that no bailout will come from there either and I strongly suspect that at the end of this fluctuation, 30-40% inflation will be the final stage of this economic decline and that will also be the end of our central banks, that is basically the current situation as I see it and what does this mean for our trading this means that we will see strong volatility we will have some markets that will skyrocket when they are flooded with liquidity then everyone will I repeat, you see that everything is great, we will have some markets that will crash when that happens.

We will also see a similar situation with precious metals. The moment the banking crisis reaches its boiling point and the money floodgates open, the price of gold will rise sharply, while otherwise it will probably go back down a bit, so we will see a lot of volatility here as well. . This means that, hopefully, we will continue to see buying opportunities and will only see a recovery of the real. real estate markets when this government and they were able to see real estate as, um, yeah, like a golden donkey, a corrupt cliff of industrial speculators, when they are no longer in government but are replaced by someone else, that's my today's summary. so I hope I have dated it a little and I wish you strong nerves and a good hand when investing in the coming days and weeks.