Trump-proof plan for NATO? Alliance looks to take over US-led efforts to arm Ukraine • FRANCE 24

It was originally supposed to be a meeting of NATO foreign ministers to

plan

a birthday party, but at 75 years old, the same Alliance that just a few years ago was wondering whether it had outlived its purpose is now having to quickly figure out how

take

on more responsibilities. Until now, the United States was busy arming Ukraine, but in the event of a return of Donald Trump as a member, including the current Administration in Washington, which prefers that NATO headquarters safeguard that mandate, we will ask about the

plan

s of Trump to test the military

alliance

against Russia, a Russia that is expected to go on the offensive in Ukraine, in that sense we will ask about Ke's battle plan, his reduction of the conscription age from 27 to 25 years and what It means a long war for all of Europe today. in the France 24 debate NATO's plan for Trump to prove himself by joining us former German ambassador to NATO Yim bik professor of international relations at escp business school thank you for being with us from Brussels former head of policy at the NATO fabis poier CEO of the political consultancy rasmusen Global welcome, thank you very much and on behalf of Gulliver CRA, our correspondent.

Good to see you Gulliver in the evening, your reactions to the f24 hash debate, yes it is proving to be a tough sell among a few outliers. Hungary is one of the leaders of the resistance to the NATO plan to

take

over, what are weapons of peace? contributions currently from the US-led ad hoc coalition known as the Ramstein group and turn them into a five-year, €100 billion fund for Ukraine, yet diplomats believe they can reach a consensus in time for the UN summit. 75th Anniversary in July We in Washington must ensure reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine over the long term so that we can rely less on voluntary contributions and more on NATO commitments.

Less of short-term offers and more of multi-year commitments because this is a red line that NATO is crossing, they will be the ones directly arming Ukraine. Your thoughts are moving from behind the scenes to the front and I think that should be welcomed. This is. I think it adds to the resources and support that Ukraine is receiving from both members. states but also the European Union, so it puts NATO much more at the forefront of the long-term effort to support Ukraine and is instrumental in helping Ukraine achieve victory. You've been doing the math, 100 billion in 5 years.

Is it feasible? It is easy to do? It's enough? I think it is a considerable amount. 100 billion for five years, especially in Armaments, I think it is considerable and, in my opinion, it is feasible at the same time, but again, how to create such a fund? the first time for NATO and who would share what part of their fund every time there is a big project in Europe the rest of the continent turns to Germany how to introduce really positive burden sharing in this in the EU we are familiar with burden sharing among the member states we have our usual repetition in V, but in NATO we have never done it and therefore the question will be who will help and with what amount look at the EU as such the EU as such has committed around 38 billion euros until So far, in favor of Ukraine, the military only left aside the civilians, but only in the military sphere, it is about 3 pardons, 33 billion euros committed by the EU and now 100 billion by NATO to give it some sustainability.

To underline how the EU has made a certain long-medium-term long-term vision for me it is well fa poier when you are inventing this plan if you are whispering in the ear of the NATO policy makers eh, do you look for the worst case scenario and try to do it without the United States? Well, I think that's one factor that has led NATO to potentially establish that fund because I don't think there is a complete agreement and the fund is not operational yet, but let me do, I think a few more will bring some nuances here first again, As I said, I think this is bringing NATO more to the front of the stage than backstage, something that NATO has been stuck on for the last two years.

However, 100 billion, let's put it in a broader context, so far we have spent something like between 100 to 120 billion dollars in military aid from both sides of the Atlantic in 2 years. Here we are talking about 100 billion in 5 years, so it is substantial but it is not enough, because we can see that 120 billion in the last two. This year has not been enough for Ukraine to have the capabilities and weapons to prevail on the battlefield, so I think it is important to see NATO's effort as a positive, but not necessarily a game-changer. and, thirdly, I think that this is not so much and only about providing weapons and money, as important as it is, it is about a political commitment and what Ukraine fundamentally needs is the ultimate political commitment, which is to join the

alliance

and that is the way to begin to end this war on terms that are favorable.

Both for Ukraine and also for NATO allies, the brilliant Craig. We were seeing Moscow's reactions earlier and, very clearly, they are saying that this is

proof

that NATO is once again on the offensive. In Ukraine, what is the feeling? I don't know how to answer that sentiment, in reaction to the things they say in Moscow about NATO being on the offensive for years, has been what I was asking. Well, you know, they appreciate any financing they can get, but the Ukrainians look more at what they can get in the short term, this 100 billion that will arrive in 5 years is not going to be of any use if the United States or maybe some other European countries that can come to the rescue very quickly raise tens of billions in the coming weeks Ukrainians say they fear a major Russian offensive in early summer and admit they are not prepared for it, they also admit that it is Not only It's about the Western aid and Western trappings that come in, but also about its own particular personnel problems and the difficulty of recruiting enough people.

The two things are related because I think more Ukrainians would be willing to go fight if they thought so. that they were going to give them enough ammunition and that brings us to the point of, right now, the acquisition that we heard about a couple of months ago, the support of the French Presidential Palace for a Check le plan, uh, to provide more ammunition to Ukraine before that Brussels The US Secretary of State visited a Caesar howitzer or cannon factory on Tuesday outside Paris. He's looking to double his production this year to 12 of those uh uh uh uh cannon launchers Anthony blinks, though he takes the occasion to gently nudge Republicans back to Washington in Congress.

They continue to block a 60 billion military package for Ukraine. President Biden's supplemental budget request to Congress must be fulfilled as quickly as possible. It is needed now, it is needed urgently, but it is also an investment in ourselves and who we have been. Speaking of today, in addition to the immediate challenges for Ukraine, is the work that our two countries are doing. Yim Bishum. The United States has had isolationist periods in the past, but it is in the distant past. Do you ever remember a situation like this where military aid for a country fighting Russia, uh, wasn't delayed by Congress, as far as I can remember, it's a completely new situation, what do you think of this?

Well, it's a new trend in the US, the US is turning more to domestic politics to depend less on parties. commitment in Europe more, let's say commitment to the first American preup patients, the border with Mexico as an example, the situation towards Asia, especially towards China, the Europeans could do more, but please, the Americans and the Europeans had agreed in 2014 , now 10 years ago, at the Summit in Great Britain on the famous 2% objective: 2% of GDP The equivalent of 2% of GDP would be dedicated to a million to the military and state budget, but this should be not only a objective but a military investment objective, where the problem now lies.

Europe is military investment there is not enough military investment the figures are too low look at the ammunition situation look at the artillery situation Caesar this girl will go up from 2 to six and then to 12 it is totally new the French now deliver armed cars I wonder why the French didn't decide this 6 months ago to give Ukraine where the needs are, as far as I know, it is first ammunition ammunition and second it is defense air defense Germany no longer has air defense German air Defense has gone to Ukraine , they need a new one to defend themselves, but where are the needs?

We cannot meet these needs of the Ukrainian army at the moment and not in time. Where is the problem we have, perhaps developing our weapons structures, let's say without? Any close experience regarding war? So does this happen? Are you calling for the mutualization of defense production means? Are you saying it should be done with or without the United States, with or without NATO? Well, please, the Europeans. I understand that the weaponry is part of a shared burden between the US and Europe. Do not forget. On the other hand, I think that the Americans understand perfectly well that the Europeans would like and should do more on their own in this field and, therefore, I believe that the Americans will not prohibit or prevent the Europeans from producing more and better than the Europeans.

I think that we have to consider what is happening now as a real wake-up call, aren't they? It is not like this? I mean, the German Foreign Minister today in Brussels was boasting that Berlin we are going to spend 2.1% of GDP this year on defense, yes, but it is new on the German side, please look at the German side in the last 10 years, catch trend, now they are catching up, fabis poer, uh, what is the answer to the question of what? The Ukrainians asked Gulliver to raise the question of how to get those munitions to the battlefield now.

Well, first, I think the biggest mistake that we have made and continue to make is that we manage this war as accountants instead of managing it as strategists which means that we are counting military capabilities, we are counting how much aid we are giving or how much aid we are giving in a way multilateral and therefore we should not give bilaterally, which is basically what Berlin is doing right now instead of thinking about what the end result is. we want to achieve and what we want to achieve is to maintain Ukraine as a free, democratic and sovereign country that will be fully integrated into the European community and for that we need to go further and not only in terms of weapons uh uh and ammunition, but also in terms of our political commitment and returning to the U.S.

I think, to be honest, hearing Secretary Lincoln ask Republicans to pass this important appropriations bill makes sense, but this U.S. administration has squandered a great opportunity to go far beyond. much earlier to provide the type of weapons and the type of long-range weapons that the Ukrainians have been asking for for a couple of years now to be able to put real pressure on the Russian forces and on Vladimir Putin and the fact that today this The Management students really, in one fell swoop, decide to provide some longer range systems or at least release some of the systems that they have provided that have remained in shorter range capabilities.

I think it will make a real difference and the fact that politically they are still managing this war as a content is a contradiction, aren't you saying that in retrospect, after all, if you think back to February 2022, the entire planet was scared by the fact that there was a possibility of a confrontation with Russia I do not believe, I do not believe in this argument that was one of the voices and I received a lot of criticism in public and in private for calling to go much further and make the compromise in terms of weapons supply was much more substantial. criticized for being one of those who ask for javelins and weapons that are not completely standard and conventional and for calling for battle tanks and main fighter aircraft and, once again, these have been decisions that we have made, but we have made them after agonizing moments, especially in Berlin, where Russia and Putin have had time to adapt and actually be able to get the upper hand and this is where we are managing this war six months late and now is the time to regain the advantage again by providing bigger help and substantive, this is what NATO is trying to solve, but also providing a kind of political commitment that we are the only ones who can provide, which is the complete assurance that Ukraine will be part of the NATO Collective Defense Arrangements.

I think this This is where the game starts to end for Vladimir Putin of course, in the meantime Yim Bish, there are European elections in June and we'll see how it

looks

, at leastIt seems that way, but please, when you talk about the long term, I understand this Ukrainian. demand, but on the other hand it is not only the Germans who reject the Americans as well, the Americans have even been warning the Ukrainians to attack the oil refineries in Tatan or elsewhere within Russia, the latest developments in recent days, yes, on Tuesday, we have drones running Beyond 1,000 Kilometers away, the Germans, but sorry, the Ukrainians have shown, I have shown, actually, they have crossed the line, the Americans have crossed the line not to abuse certain systems that have been provided by NATO countries, and they have even agreed on joint planning and targeting, so I think the Ukrainians can be trusted.

The fact that we don't trust them, therefore we're not giving them the kind of weapons systems that they need to put pressure back on Putin and the Russian forces, I think is outrageous. we can trust them, they are almost members of the alliance and they need to be able to finish the job and finishing the job is to put pressure on the common structure of the Russian supply lines and especially in Crimea, and for thatI need a longer range systems glider Craig, the ukrainians, you went and we broadcast earlier in the week your report from the zapara region, digging into the defenses, preparing for once, once winter turns to spring and turns into uh uh, which is a new russian advance um, but continue.

In both senses, Ambassador Bble was heard talking about the drones that have been successful this week in reaching targets 1,000 km away. What's the feeling as we head into spring and then summer? Well, I think Ukraine was facing three main challenges, one of them is getting enough international aid. the other is to get enough personnel for the army and the third was to build these defenses after the fall of AA there was aiva sorry, the city in donbas um there was shock um because of the few defenses that there were beyond avva I think it was a Un Bit of an exaggeration, not that there weren't defensive trenches like the ones you see in my report.

I have seen trenches like that near slaviansk and katos and some parts of the front line defenses were already in place. The good news for the Ukrainians is that the Russians seem to be a little tired and are not ready to launch their next big attack yet and it seems that the Ukrainians have time to build these defenses as I believe they are doing and other international observers have been saying yes. It seems that we are building these defenses at least in many parts of the front line, of course, I could only see what they needed to see.

I can't say it's like that in other places, but it's certainly pretty impressive the parts where um. I saw that I wanted to go back to what we were saying about these long-range attacks on Russian territory because the Ukrainians are really very bitter right now about the international reaction to that, particularly today, a United Nations spokesperson said that the United Nations does not I don't condone attacking civilian targets, Ukrainians are up in arms at the idea that a munitions factory they tried to attack or attacked depending on who you believe, should be considered a civilian target, Yim Bish, completely understandable please, I was.

I've been. Reading this morning about a Russian airstrike on a kindergarten in Ukraine, the civilian target is clear and therefore there are mixed targets, there are targets that are civilian and have dual use, for example the oil refinery is a dual objective, oh I agree, there is no problem with Yo in this interpretation, but what the Europeans especially and the US fear is that the Ukrainians may be out of control until now and therefore there is this, Let's call it, a certain level of mistrust between the allies, it is a fact, it is an obsolete topic. is a written down argument that basically leads to asking Ukrainians to fight a war against nuclear energy with one hand tied behind their back and this is the result we have now, which is that we have a negative stalemate where Ukraine is on the defensive and If Ukraine fails in Europe, Europe fails, so I think we have to face it and trust that the Ukrainians will do the right thing, which they have done so far.

They have legitimate and legal bases to attack Russian targets in Russia and continue to support and augment them. that support and everything else will have consequences for us in a very short time because we ran out of time, are we overestimating or underestimating Russia? We both underestimate Vladimir Putin's agenda, that he is really serious about taking over Ukraine, but We overestimate Russia's willingness to escalate because we underestimate our ability to step back and take control of escalation and this is the fundamental discussion we need to relearn the art of escalation to restore stability in Europe. It's uncomfortable but it's true.

Furthermore, we have to really learn how to stabilize ourselves. helping Ukraine to counter and defend its borders is clear and there is none it is more informal these agreements in Europe are more informal we do not have a clear strategy and a clear division of labor among Europeans how to best help Ukraine in these cases perhaps the today's meeting in Brussels has more light on that as the hours and days go by guliver cag's report from the zapar region is on our website

france

24.com I want to thank guler for joining us from ke I want to thank Fais Po in Brussels.

Yim Bish, thank you for being with us here in the France 24 debate, goodbye.