Meet the Press full broadcast — March 12

This Sunday, a stunning collapse, the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, shakes the tech world and raises fears that panic could spread as banks experience financial losses. It is and should be a cause for concern, why did the government have to take over so quickly and Our other banks at risk I will ask Sheila Bear, former chair of the FDIC during the last banking crisis, in addition to legal problems. Donald Trump faces possible criminal charges in New York, where he was invited to testify before the grand jury this week. Our country has become. the research capital of the world as its biggest challenger visits Iowa for the first time we will never surrender to the woke mob will Republican primary voters care if Trump is impeached and the art of deception?

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy delivers footage from January 6 to Tucker Carlson, who uses it to claim that the insurrection was largely peaceful and serves to divide Republicans at the Capitol. I believe my guests this morning are Democratic Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Republican Senator Kevin Kramer of North Dakota. and join me for information and analysis Mariana Sotomayor The Washington Post Jonathan Martin of Politico Maria Theresa Kumar president of Vote Latino and Republican strategist Brendan Buck welcome to Sunday, it's NBC News' Meet the Press in Washington, the longest-running program in the history of television, the

press

with Chuck Todd and a good Sunday morning was a week of borrowing a phrase from everything, everywhere, at the same time.

Global instability and threats to democracy at home and ended in the second largest banking collapse in US history. All this increases the uncertainty of many. Americans have been feeling for some years around the world that Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore ties in the Middle East and a deal brokered not by the United States but by China and it happened just as our nation's top intelligence leaders testified that China is citing the most significant threat to the national security of the United States on our southern border: the kidnapping of four American citizens in Mexico and the murder of two of them just across our border raised tensions over the issue of border security, prompting calls for President Biden to try to crack down. about the cartels and there are real questions about whether the Mexican government can be a partner in this, then there is the threat to democracy here at home, the Republican division over the attack on the capital opened again this week after the host of Fox's Tucker Carlson presented an alternate reality of the Insurrection falsely described it as mostly peaceful chaos and ended up showing footage that was exclusively provided to him by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Republican senators called the

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that normalized the attack a dangerous and disgusting mistake, even using a slur, but many House Republicans. They defended the

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, but the biggest political story of the year began in Iowa when the co-leading candidates for the Republican nomination took their campaign there for the first time. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis put his retail campaign skills to the test on Friday and Donald Trump has an event in Davenport Iowa tomorrow and guess what later in the week the Manhattan District Attorney's office opened a day for Donald Trump will be in front of the grand jury where criminal charges will be brought for Trump's role in paying hush money to porn stars Stormy.

Daniels could arrive at any moment and how will Trump voters and opponents respond to a new label of indicted former president if in fact the Manhattan district attorney moves forward with those charges, but let's focus our attention on the bank failure Silicon Valley Bank? It became the second largest bank in US history and the first to fail since the 2008 financial crisis. The bank is small compared to the largest banks in the country. It had just $209 billion in assets compared to JPMorgan Chase's more than $3 trillion, but its implosion unleashed a wave of concern not only about the banking sector but also about how venture capital firms behave in Silicon.

Valley and that caused some stocks to fall. The Biden administration tried to keep calm about all of this on Friday as banks experience financial losses. and should be of concern with the 2007-2008 global financial crisis reforms, we have implemented stress testing and other tools that our regulators have to provide more resilience to our banking system. former FDIC chairman who had to take over Silicon Valley Bank on Friday and Steve Lisman is CNBC's chief economics reporter. Welcome both, Steve, let me start with you what's happening tomorrow morning. Well, we're waiting to hear what regulators say what the Federal Reserve says.

Do they do something? They try to calm the market, whether through a statement or any type of program. We don't know if that's the case at this time. That's a great question tomorrow morning, Chuck. Two things: One is if the FDIC announces how much uninsured depositors will receive and that number could be quite critical, Chuck, in terms of the kind of confidence that would permeate the market if the number were something like 80 cents or 90 cents on the dollar that there could be. There would be some currency that would permeate the markets if it were 50 cents on the dollar, so I think uninsured depositors at other banks are going to worry.

The second thing is whether the Fed works with other agencies to provide something related to insurance or some type. of assistance for those who have uninsured deposits at other banks, okay Sheila, you ran the FDIC, what can we expect from them tomorrow morning? So I think you can expect what the forward dividend will be for the uninsured and I want to emphasize that might not be the

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recovery for the uninsured, that will be a number that they are confident that they will be able to recover well, they do, they do as a percentage, that's what he was saying, yes, exactly with IndyMac bank, which is the The closest parallel to a bankruptcy during the great financial crisis we announced a dividend of 50.

Any man, any Mac Bank was in worse condition than this bank, so I can only assume that it will be significantly higher, the fact that they have not found it. a buyer is still what is that what his successor is doing right now well, I think so, I hope so. I mean, that's the easiest way to handle these and almost all of our bank failures during the great financial crisis, we had about 400 of them. We bought into an assumption: we sold a failed bank to a healthy bank and typically the healthy acquirer would also cover the uninsured because they wanted the franchise value of those large depositors so optimally.

That is the best result. The problem is that this was a rush. This was a liquidity. failure, it was a bank run, so they didn't have time to prepare to market the banks, they have to do that now I can understand the fact that it was a bank run, Steve and in fact it was venture capitalist Peter Teal, uh. name that became somewhat famous in political circles for getting very involved in the 2022 elections, it seemed like he took out his money and said: Hey guys, something doesn't look right here and he started a race, does that tell you that maybe this is This is something that can be isolated or could happen in other banks.

Chuck, you're asking the question that Wall Street has been debating 24/7 since this happened. Let's put the context here. This is probably the first bank. run in the digital age I don't know, Sheila would confirm, that means one tweet can cause a bank run. I don't know if we've had a tweet cause a bank run before, but it's worth commenting that that's a comment. by people like Peter Thiel and others caused a massive withdrawal of deposits, so there are four things that are believed to make this bank unique. It had a particular risk on its balance sheet when it came to interest rates, it didn't seem to be moving. to hedge that risk, secondly, it was highly concentrated in the industry, so all of its, uh, most of its depositors and borrowers, by the way, were from the same place.

Third, it had a lot of losses on its books, which, by the way, a lot of losses on its books. a group of banks do it, but they are not made and the fourth thing was these uninsured deposits, 87 percent, however, they told us that their deposits were not insured compared to other banks of their size which were around 40 , so it's isolated, Chuck, but the key for tomorrow. tomorrow is what regulators do to give people peace of mind that they were, in fact, isolated and will remain isolated. I want to present, uh, Sheila hosted a hearing with several companies that people might be familiar with that had deposits here, and they all need to do some basic payroll calculations here, uh, can the FDIC help alleviate the problem of payroll on their own or are they going to need an act of Congress or something like that?

Well, no, I think they only guarantee insured deposits, that's what they do. Do you charge premiums for policyholders under 250,000? They do not guarantee that they are not insured. If there is a systemic risk exception that suggests something is seriously wrong, then it is an extraordinary procedure. Arguably they could, but I think, again, this is a $200 billion bank. trillion dollar banking industry $200 billion bank I think it's going to be hard to say that this is systemic in any way to payroll. I think that the advanced dividend will help these companies achieve that I know some of the names that you put there that is not necessarily payroll I know It circulates those are reserves behind their stablecoin those are not that is not their money they cannot use it for the payroll so I think you need to differentiate certainly yes, but these were all the companies, these are companies that had substantial deposits in the industry, that's exactly right, Steve, it's you, you spend a lot of time watching and Jay friend at the FED, Who should be watching these banks as they try to deal with the interest? rate increases here, is it the Fed's responsibility to warn banks that they need to be smarter about managing interest rate increases?

Or is this from the banks and was this from Silicon Valley Bank, which maybe wasn't realizing that, hey, these interest rates? the hikes could be here to stay, so again, a question many people will be asking tomorrow morning. Chuck, let me explain a little bit about that. Yes, this bank was regulated by the Federal Reserve, if there were enough red flags out there. Certainly some of the autopsies I am reading suggest that regulators should have seen this problem at this Bank. On the other hand, Chuck, this is still a free market system despite the enormous banking regulation that exists.

Banks are free to fail when there is a change. In interest rates, as we have had in recent months, the most aggressive rate increase cycle, in two generations, the business models of some banks are no longer going to work, regardless of whether this bank should have taken action or No. I think I should have done it. It depends on the bank in the first instance, but it also depends on the regulators in the second instance and that autopsy will analyze whether they do or not. The regulators should have seen this coming and what you're going to do next.

What I'm asking is whether or not the FED should cut interest rates. Certainly, the market thinks the FED will be less aggressive. I was just going to say maybe don't cut, but there may be consequences, yes, slow the rate of increase, give the banks more time to manage. Yes, that's what people are thinking. Certainly, the market changed price dramatically on Thursday and Friday. Chuck assuming it's okay. Sheila Bear Steve Leesman. Thanks to both Sheila. I think a lot of people will take advantage of your experience this week, unfortunately, I guess, but thank you for coming, thank you, it's great to see you starting now towards the southern border, four Americans were kidnapped and two murdered this week, kidnapped just a mile away, just a mile across the border from Brownsville, Texas, in Matamoros, Mexico, four friends from South Carolina traveled to Mexico, where Latavia McGee intended to undergo cosmetic surgery in the following days, they were transported to at least three different places, supposedly by members of the Gulf cartel.

Two were dead when Mexican security forces located them Tuesday morning. The Bite administration was already in a political bind over its immigration policies caught between Republicans eager to exploit border security failures.as a campaign issue and Democrats angry about Biden's new asylum limits and that the administration is considering going back to families of 10. Now we also have a national security crisis that just ended? our southern border, so joining me now is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is also a member of the Banking Committee. By the way, this is Democratic Senator Bob Menéndez.

Senator Menendez. Let me start with the Banking Committee. Obviously I invited him before anyone else. Since this happened, have you received a briefing over the weekend and what is your opinion on what we can expect tomorrow morning? Well, Chuck, I haven't had a briefing yet, but I think your previous panel pretty much had it straight. The number one question will be what are the excesses beyond the insured amounts and the ability to deal with them and the companies in terms of payroll compliance. The broader question will be whether the regulators have been attentive to ensuring that this Bank could not have taken this risk and what else is there about it, as someone who sat in 2008 on the Banking Committee when we encountered that last crisis, the objective It is trying to avoid a crisis so as not to deal with it. and those will be questions that will be posed in a simple way.

Are you more concerned that perhaps regulators will underreact or overreact? Are you more concerned that the government will underreact or overreact? What worries me is that we get it right. That doesn't mean over- or under-reaction, it's a matter of getting it right. Were regulators right to allow this to happen as expected in the market or should they have been more forward? I'm inclined to say to this and other banks, "Hey, you have risk here, you need to mitigate your risk." That's something we'll have to see in the coming days. Do you think the FDIC should guarantee more than $250,000 per deposit? has ever risen well, it has served us well for a long time and the question is where are we in the market today, does that make sense of course?

That would require additional insurance proceeds to cover it, that's a question to consider. going forward in the future, uh, but you know at the end of the day depositors know that they are covered up to 250,000, so they can also make decisions to diversify their deposits so that they take less risk of something like this bottom line. It sounds like you're not ready to offer them a ransom oh, I'm not ready to offer them a ransom by any stretch of the imagination, we need to look at exactly everything that is pertinent to the specific set of circumstances and let's see what else is out there, if anything. more what we should be thinking about, okay, let me move on to um uh, what happened to those four Americans this weekend, what is exposed, um, what is the fact that this is an Administration in Mexico, which He has chosen a different tact in dealing with the cartels, meaning he doesn't want to deal with them like the previous administration did and he doesn't seem to want to work with the United States and get our help in dealing with them. cartels, how do we deal with this when you have a Mexican government that may not be on the same page?

Well, this is one of our great challenges. President López Obrador spoke when he took office about kisses, not bullets. Well, that's not working very well. The reality is that, across the board of communities, it is the cartels that run the border communities, not the government of Mexico. Mexico has a responsibility first and foremost to its own citizens to establish security within its own territory and to those who visit its country as Well, then we need to dramatically increase our commitment to Mexico. It can't just be about economics, it has to also be about safety and security, and I fear that we are going in the wrong direction in Mexico in that and in democracy. questions too, so this is a present danger that we have to deal with and we have to engage the Mexicans in a way that says they have to do much more in their security, we can help them and we have intelligence, we have other information that we can share , but we need them to enforce it in their own country.

Do you think that designating the cartels as a foreign terrorist organization helps or harms that ability to work with the Mexican government? Well, slapping a designation on itself is going to change anything. The question is how to go after the cartels, how to deplete their money, how to go after their leadership, how to lock them up, how to deny visas to Mexican government officials who, ultimately, are not participating in prosecuting the cartels - those are some of the questions. things that you can do that ultimately mean something at the end of the day, how would you vote on this?

It may come to a vote, would you vote to designate these cartels as terrorist organizations? Well, that has a certain designation that we just saved for truly terrorist organizations in the world certainly are a consequence of national security issues. I'm more interested in doing something that ultimately seeks to destroy the cartels than just naming them, you know how to name them. them a foreign terrorist organization that in itself means nothing, ultimately you go after their leaders, you imprison them, ultimately you go after their money, you dry them up, ultimately you go after those who are supposed to enforce the law and now you have a real consequence, you have been critical of the new border policy changes that Secretary Mayorkas has made at DHS.

What is the alternative? Do you have and what is your level of confidence in Secretary Mayorkas? Well, look, this isn't about Secretary Marcus, this is about the administration. The best part of the administration's immigration policy during the first two years is that they ended family detention, which proved to be a failure under the Obama and Trump administrations as a way to deter people from coming. What we need is a comprehensive plan to deal with the border and what are the elements, the push and pull factors that attract people to this country, we need to have a surge at the border that deals with asylum officers, uses border security that can ultimately process those who have a legitimate claim to asylum. and to deport those who do not have a legitimate claim to asylum, we need to find legal avenues so that people do not come to the border because they are fleeing, because if my situation is that I am in a country where saying means I will surely die.

I see my daughter was raped, my son was forced to join a gang, I'm going to run away, well, we have to understand that and deal with that, we have to work with the Central American and Mexican governments, to also be part of the solution and Lastly, we. I need to look at the issue of temporary protected status in a way that will ultimately help us address the challenges in the three largest countries. By the way, when you reach the border there are now Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, they are dictatorships, people who flee from those dictatorships when the administration opened a legal path for those who flee from it saw the reduction dramatically, it is just an example of what is can do it in a way that is good for the border and preserves our nation as an asylum-preserving nation, but if not, if the administration doesn't do it. go down this path, I'm afraid the president will become the asylum denier in chief, well, Senator Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, like I said, boy, we had a week and so did you with all the different things that are. on your plate uh and your responsibilities appreciate the time uh thank you for sharing your perspective thank you when we return Donald Trump faces the possibility of running for president while accused of multiple crimes will it even matter if there is an alternative Republican senator from the GOP?

Kevin Kramer of North Dakota, who is also a member of the Banking Committee, joins me in welcoming back two divisions that occurred in the Republican Party this week on Capitol Hill. Senate and House Republicans are divided over the Fox corporation's attempt to rewrite the history of the capital's insurrection with Senate Republicans led by Mitch McConnell criticized Tucker Carlson for falsely portraying the attack as peaceful, although many House Republicans defended the broadcast and called it a must-see. He did not participate in the January 6 whitewashing. It wasn't a walk through Kappa, it's It's horrible what some people are willing to do to get attention and get a little extra money.

I think it's nonsense, so the 2024 divide is emerging in Iowa, where the favorites for the Republican nomination are starting their campaign. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was not an official candidate yet held two events on Friday and Donald Trump, with the

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ure of a possible impeachment looming in New York, perhaps as early as this month, appears there tomorrow night , our country has become the world capital of research, in fact, that is all we do. I could say that if you talk to Floridians, there's no drama in our administration, there's no palace intrigue, they basically just sit back and say, well, what's the governor going to do next, and we executed it well, and now he joins me Republican Senator Kevin Kramer. of North Dakota and, as I said, also a member of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Kramer, welcome back to the

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ing with the press.

It's a pleasure to be with you, thank you and, as I told Senator Menendez, we booked it before this, thank you for this collapse, but, well, I'm lucky that you're on the Banking Committee, so let me ask you this: what have you done? learned in the last 48 hours? What do you expect to happen tomorrow morning? Yeah, well, first of all, when you listen to Steve Leesman, you almost don't need to. Ask someone else because he really is the guy who knows and is the smart thinker and all that stuff, so I would probably call him for advice.

In fact, I think he covered it very well. My sense about it. Chuck is my The sense is that it is a fairly localized problem, the problem is that we live in a very emotional time where the markets are emotional, the reference to social media as an accelerator, so to speak, of some of that emotion um, I think it can be problematic, but I hope that with the weekend there will be some calm and certainly some strategy as well, but there are so many unique things about Silicon Valley that aren't necessarily systemically applicable, so I hope it's very located and we can address it that way.

Do you know something? In 2018 you remember the house where you were a cosponsor of a Dodd-Frank repeal that loosens some regulations on smaller banks. There are some who point to this flexibility saying maybe. that would have um, that was something that maybe would have prevented Silicon Valley Bank from putting itself in this position. Do you think these smaller banks need more regulation or less? Yes, no, they certainly don't need more regulation than they don't Which means it can be mismanaged now we have to add the obvious and I think you talked about it in the first segment: the fact that we've seen a pretty steep rise in rates of rising interest rates that have put some smaller banks uh, you know, at odds with their own balance sheet now, of course, we have a Federal Reserve trying to change its balance sheet at the same time and maybe we need to do a little more review of all that , but I do not do it.

I think the smaller banks need more supervision and more regulation, maybe better supervision but certainly not more regulation with all this volatility right now it's time to fight the debt ceiling yes no it's a big one period, we are living in a you. We know more or less a debt crisis right now and it's not just the US government debt ceiling, but a lot of people have reached their own debt ceiling and their savings accounts are running out, so we have a kind of crisis, so to speak, on our hands. That requires a lot of things, we don't need to have a fight over the debt ceiling, but that's why I think it's foolish for the president to just say, "I'm not going to negotiate on the debt ceiling, this is the time to have a Negotiate and do something, I mean, isn't it better to just have a debt ceiling debate, not mess with the economy right now and then have a budget debate, make a budget and have two budgets and actually , do it the old way, we can't use the debt ceiling well, the problem with the old way is that it has eluded us for a decade.

I've been in Congress for over a decade and I've never seen the old way In the same way, we have never had a regular order, as they call it, so I agree with you that we need to get back to that, but I think the debt ceiling situation is one of the opportunities to demand that maybe

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and and uh and work together, let me move on to a couple of political issues. Do you think you were the former president?one of the former president's early supporters? You haven't endorsed it yet for 2024. You've said you'd like to. see someone like him, uh, and you're out of the question of endorsing him, but if he gets impeached regardless of whether it's in Manhattan, Atlanta, or Washington, do you think it's healthy for the party if he keeps running or do you think he should step aside, sure.

First of all, Donald Trump is not going to take advice from the party or from me, but I think what will happen is that if he is impeached, that becomes one of the factors and whether he wins the primary or not, the other factor is who else is in the race and who can make the best case, obviously, you have highlighted Governor DeSantis, who has certainly earned the right to be the leader of the class through, not only his political rhetoric, but his successful government of a very large state and me. I think you know how to see them on the rung a little more now do the things that potential presidential candidates do.

I think it will help the debate throughout the challenge become that if there are too many people in the race, then there are other good ones Mike Pence Mike Pompeo certainly, my friend Tim Scott, they would all be good candidates to understand the Trump Doctrine, but they would engage in behavior that is probably more suited to the undecided voter, and at the end of the day, the most important thing for primary voters to think about is not just who. they love more, but who can win for the country and who can win for the party because we desperately need new leadership.

Do you think eligibility should matter a little more than usual? I think it should always matter. because for primary voters there is certainly no glory in losing spectacularly compared to winning humbly, so I'd rather see a humble victory. Okay, I have to ask you about January 6th because there were only two different reactions to what we saw this week that Tucker Carlson said on his show on January 6th that a small percentage of them were hooligans, they committed vandalism, but the overwhelming majority They were not peaceful, they were orderly and meek, they were not insurrectionists, they were tourists and then vice presidents.

Mike Pence last night at the gridir dinner said make no mistake, what happened that day was a shame and it is a mockery of decency to portray it any other way. Where do you stand with Tucker Carlson? On Mike Pence's side or on Mike Pence's side, well, first of all, both sides may be right rhetorically, but the problem is that a four-hour walk through the Capitol that is marred by a half-hour of rioting does not make it a peaceful protest and no one was supposed to be in the capital, so there is not a single person who is completely innocent of any crime, but not everyone that day is at the same level of crime.

By the way, 518 confessed to having committed crimes that day. 420 have been prosecuted and sentenced so clearly that it was not a peaceful protest, that does not mean that the vast majority of them do not regret it or that they did not understand the seriousness of what they were doing or what other people are doing. I think it's unfair to say it. all in the same bucket. I never felt like a democracy was really in trouble. We survived a civil war. We will survive this too. What frustrates me the most, Chuck, is that we're talking about it again here.

We had the January 6th commission wrapping up its work, for the most part people didn't care or pay attention, it was very partisan to say the least, and here we were moving forward, we should be talking about the southern border, as you discussed before , we should be talking. about China and the challenge it poses and talking about inflation and a budget that increases deficits forever and those are the winning arguments so that the Republicans do not flirt again on January 6, 2020. eh, 2021. you are a regular guest on Fox News, have you seen all this Internal Communications, it makes you think about how they behave towards you.

Well, first of all, I don't confuse my job with anyone at Fox News, at least of all the primetime performers, that doesn't mean you don't add value. I don't confuse Tucker Carlson with Brett Bear, Dana Perino or Bill Hammer, any more than I confuse some of the MSNBC personalities with what you do on Sunday mornings. I just think there is too much entertainment. My biggest regret probably about the 41,000 Hours release is that it was handed over to a primetime person who, as you know, is pretty sensational in his approach, and instead of just releasing it for everyone, I think.

Transparency is absolutely the best way to do it. I think Kevin McCarthy has the right to do that. I just wish he had divulged it to everyone at the same time. Yes. Neutral transparency if you really wanted it, that's how you would have done it. Senator Kramer. North Dakota Republican I really appreciate him coming out and sharing his perspective with us. It's always a pleasure for me. Thank my Lord. Thanks when we come back. Donald Trump's biggest rival will rally to Iowa voters and steal the spotlight from Trump. Don't say just leave it, leave it because then we're going to live under an oppressive woke precision and that can't happen.

The next panel is as follows: Welcome panelists here Mariana Sotomayor Congressional Reporter for the Washington Post Jonathan Martin senior political commentary for The Politician Brendan Buck, former advisor to House Speakers Ryan and Boehner, and Maria Teresa Kumar, the president of the Latino vote, look, I want to get into Iowa and the presidential stuff, however, I want to start real quick with the murder of the banking crisis. Teresa, you just said you were. I'm surprised you haven't seen the power shout louder already, Jake Paul, Chairman of the Reserve, if you really look at what bank it is, this is the Silicon Valley Bank, this is the emerging bank, it's often the teller bank too automatic democrats of all those investors.

So the fact that we don't have these individual investors investing in people, so the fact that we don't have someone from the administration speaking out and being so forceful, I think what we're going to see is Republicans. saying: oh, you shouldn't rescue this one, he's going to be I think a lot about Long Political Lines, how have you heard Mariana?, if they've already been like, where is he?, you know?, there are people wondering why the administration It's not there because I've been It and I understand it, the other argument is, hey, don't you want to eliminate 2 4 because it could create a new panic?

Many, especially House legislators that I know, have been briefed on this, but they. We're still trying to put together all the facts, what we should do, how we should position ourselves, and I think leaders are starting to connect online about this as well. There hasn't been anything concrete yet in terms of reactions from various legislators, which is important, right, I think they are not only trying to understand what to say, but also the issue at hand. I think everyone is waiting for a big bank to take over this bank and take this all off their hands because I know no one wants to vote for a bailout, let me get to the politics, we got a poll from the Des Moines Register and it was interesting to learn to Jonathan, that's how everyone saw him through the prism of what they wanted to happen, so if you look at Trump's numbers here you can look at it one way and say, hey, Trump doesn't seem as strong as he used to be in June of 2021, right, definitely their number was probably a lot higher than it is now, but when you look at their favorable net rating, you sit up. there and you say, oh look, he's down since September 21, he's in Iowa, he's down from plus 84 to plus 62 and then when you put him in a ranking with the other candidates that were evaluated in this Des Moines Register poll, Trump is plus 62 just below.

DeSantis, to me, those aren't weak numbers, they're just not as strong as they used to be. Trump doesn't look weak, no, he's someone who would win, but he wouldn't win by 30, he would win by 15. in a split surge and that's the key, of course, the numbers that weren't proven in that poll, I think we'll all want to see. what's the showdown between Trump and Santa, especially if it's just those two or at least. At least you know a group of four or five. I think that will be the most telling number you know for a race that seems to revolve around Donald Trump.

In fact I think the next six months will be more about the Sans and here's why Think if he can show off his medal and it's clear that he is the alternative to Trump, for now we'll know and I think if that's the case, This race becomes much clearer, it's more of a head-to-head race. If it's not such a clear alternative, if he can't take a hit and launch a blow in the Republican primaries, not against the left, not against the media, but in his own party, then it's going to be a tougher race, Brendan, you're agreeing , Yeah.

I mean, look, Ron DeSantis is clearly the alternative and the argument for anyone other than Ron DeSantis is pretty weak at this point, but he's untested and there's something that I think every successful presidential candidate in recent years years he has had. something called charisma and we don't know if Ron DeSantis is able to connect with people, but he is obviously capable of energizing the Republican base, but when you run for president you are under that spotlight, people want to see if you have the emotional appeal and Joe Biden Barack Obama George W. Bush Bill Clinton everyone had it and it's not clear if they have it and when Donald Trump attacks you you will have to respond: I hate to mention that, he didn't pass the beer test to Santa, right , he's just not right, you know, George W Bush, you know, so people used to make fun of that, but that for some people that's absolutely important and it's also about likeability, I think one of the reasons and that's that we mean, but you know, a lot of times people say that Vesantis is a strong opponent of the Democrats because that's where wokeness goes to die and the challenge that he doesn't realize is that wokeness is what made Americans They will wake up.

ACA is what basically wants to make sure that people in gay marriage wake up it's what gives women agency over their bodies wake up it's making sure that a kid in your classroom isn't afraid that they're going to lose their life and that's actually a juxtaposition to what most Americans really want, it sounds like you think Democrats should pick up on wokeness, not fight for it, instead of ignoring the attacks, right? I mean, corporate operations really want to wake up, right? They don't want dissantis to regulate what they can and can't. Let's say you look at what's happening with Disney right now and this is an opportunity for them to not only reclaim it but recognize that it's actually their strength that got Joe Biden into the White House because he encouraged not only women but that animated an entire generation of young people, this woke theme, Mariana, is the only thing that keeps the Republicans United, whatever that means, oh yes, exactly.

I mean, you asked what does awakening mean and they can't really give you a firm answer just because what does awakening mean? and I think the interesting thing about DeSantis is also that yes, he has been able to do all these things in Florida, but the closest lesson we have is the midterm elections where we saw in Michigan, in the key states of Pennsylvania, many Republicans or Republicans who They became independent. or even moderate Republicans who say: I don't want Trump. I don't want someone who acts like Trump. I just completely reject this extremism that, to your point, Democrats are looking forward to having that debate and framing both of them well, that's the question.

I don't know if DeSantis is going to talk to undecided voters. This is like one of the things he said yesterday in Las Vegas. Listen to this. We are also the first state in the country to establish the day in our schools every November 10. is intended to teach our students at all levels about the evils of communist regimes throughout history. Let's tell the truth about Marxism and Leninism. You know, Jonathan. It's kind of like looking at being a Floridian. I know what he's talking about. what he's trying to play there and all that, but I would tell him I went to Florida Public Schools, you know they taught us that this was called history, it seems like a strange politicization, you know he's doing everything he can to politicize something, but Chuck, you said it right, Donald Trump is to the Democrats what Wokism is to the Republican Party, he is the singular unifying and cohesive force, okay, the reaction to the perceived excess of the left, which is basically what Wokism okay, it's what galvanizes the Republican Party right now, it's not just anything.

The political agenda is that, so of course he's playing with that. Here's something that's speaking to voters and donors. I like him about Santos, which will help him. They want him to be the guy. They are almost great with it in a corner. they want this to work, they almost want this to be a real deal against Trump and that helps him because even if he goes to Iowa, it's not very good on the Rope line, they still want it to happen, you know, Brendan, I'm curious, you know there was a cocoon of protectors around Obama when Hillary Clinton attacked him in 2008yeah there will be a bunch of DeSantis protectors if Trump comes next and Jack and I were talking about this before he's the only person when Donald Trump hits him that people like whoa whoa whoa whoa if he hits Mitch McConnell that's pretty funny but if you hit Rhonda Sands it's like well we don't hit other Republicans it's like since when yeah that speaks to something that people like John said people support him whether it's ultimately a good thing or bad for him, it's a problem, it's very fast, let's watch how a group of hardliners in the chamber come out to defend the scientist and give him a little insulation on the right interest to protect against Trump, I would say.

I would say the only Republican voter that really matters over DeSantis and Trump is Rupert Murdoch and you actually see Fox News pivoting to Santa, they've tried it before, we'll see if they can pull it off next. In addition to March Madness approaching, we'll look at how much money is at stake for the growing sports betting market in this country and how it's now starting to become a real source of funding for state governments. Welcome back, data download time today is not just any Sunday it's Selection Sunday when the NCAA names the 6,018 who will play in the next college basketball tournament, but what you may not realize these days is when you throw a couple of dollars to your office's March Madness bracket group and you're contributing.

What has now become a multi-billion dollar industry thanks in part to the growing number of states that have legalized sports betting, has been transformative in recent years, with this NCAA tournament alone expecting $10 billion. . it will be bet right on March Madness. 52 percent of people will make some kind of bet online now, and by the way, for the first time it appears that this year legal gambling revenues, $6 billion, will outnumber illegal revenues. of gambling, why? Because since 2018, when the Supreme Court said that states could have sports gambling, 36 states have already legalized it and it's all over the country, it's red, it's blue, if you look at it, there hasn't been any political trend, so so to speak, the states. that haven't legalized gambling yet, almost everyone is going to try to get it done, maybe Utah and Hawaii will be the only two states over the next decade that don't actually make a serious attempt to do so and, if you will, look at how the states already They have benefited.

See this for the first time in 2022. State tax revenue from sports and gambling crossed the billion-dollar threshold. Now the real question for state lawmakers will be: how much revenue they will add to improve schools and roads. Is it revenue that they use to replace in order to replace revenue and it doesn't really help the state in the long run, we'll find out, and sports betting has led to betting on other issues, the Oscars may actually be something that has been to a smaller number of states, six of them. Allow it for tonight Colorado Louisiana Indiana Michigan New Jersey and Massachusetts, so if you have a favorite actor you might as well spend a couple bucks on him, and speaking of Hollywood, politics in Hollywood have often been intertwined.

Donald Trump is just the latest celebrity to harness the power of his fame to launch a successful political career. In 2004, during his first appearance on Meet the Press as governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger spoke about how his experience as an actor helped him sell his policies as governor. Ronald Reagan said that you can't be a good president without being a good actor. Do you think your training as an actor has helped you as governor of Sacramento? I think one of the things they learn in acting is how to sell, how to promote things and why you go.

You always promote us and try to sell tickets to your movies, so I think it's the same to be able to start any type of program. in your state or in your country, you have to go out and You have to communicate with people, the better you can communicate with people, the more you can let them know what you are trying to achieve in the state, the more you can connect with people, the better will be and more will do it. Vote for your show when we return. President Biden's new immigration policy is dividing Democrats, but are his new rules working?

This week, Mariana, we have this border debate about immigration and then Americans are being murdered literally a mile from the border and it's one of those things, you know, I talked to a senior Homeland Security official a few weeks ago, who said that you know that northern Mexico is perhaps one of the most dangerous places in the world right now, it's no different than Syria, uh, what do you have and that there are parts of Mexico that are not governed by the Mexican government, what do we do in the United States Joined? I mean, that's the question and I'll be honest.

I haven't necessarily heard Republicans or Democrats on Capitol Hill talk about this specific issue and honestly, any Democratic chamber of the Republican Senate will say that addressing the border and immigration in general is probably the most politically toxic issue for each party, no one wants it. , nobody wants it and we have this new generation of Latino Republicans who really want to do something that they are calling their party and saying: I am living this every day. I represent the Border, we have to do something about it, but people, I mean, we have all experienced immigration attempts, how they have come so close. and obviously this is a different scenario, but I don't necessarily think it's going to add a lot of pressure on Congress to act and do something and it's a separate issue, but it's linked.

Maria Teresa, well, this is what's wild, if you can believe it. I think we said at this table almost 10 years ago, 10 years ago, when we were talking about the gang of eight, it is the tenth anniversary of this internal policy question of what to do with the 11 million people here who are undocumented and we allow them to combine with what is happening on the southern border and it is time for the administration to recognize that we have two problems: we have 11 million undocumented immigrants who are married, who are married and who live in mixed-status households, who will vote on this issue, but then there's also what's happening at the border, which is a Western Hemisphere problem.

It is time we start paying attention to Latin America. It's been almost 25 years without us doing it, but you know who's paying attention to Latin America. Russia and China, Russia has invested and has military forces in Nicaragua. Right now we have China that is actually investing in infrastructure in Central America and so the more we look across the Atlantic at what's happening in Ukraine, we actually say what our domestic and international policy is. building democracy here at home, you know, and the other complicating factor for Brendan is that even if you want to be tough on the cartels, if the Mexican government doesn't want to be tough on the cartels, there's not much you can do and I really think that I think that's why, as Mariana said, almost not much has been said because it could be a game of pointing the finger?

The real problem is amla, yes it is a political problem, it is also a real political problem that is not easy to solve and I think Let's make a big point: for a long time we have put off seriously addressing any of these issues in the hope of that there is some kind of big agreement. I think we need to realize that a big deal is not in sight anytime soon and so you do. The border needs to be addressed and I think, frankly, Democrats have been a little behind the curve politically for a long time.

This is an issue that absolutely sets Independence on fire, we know it sets Republicans on fire and they just seem to have a blind spot. The border is a serious problem, it's only getting worse, and I think Joe Biden is probably recognizing that now, but the problem is so serious that it may not be easy to solve. Well, they have, by the way, Bob Menendez called it that. a tough that was tough what did you think of that that was tough because he was basically a silent denial because he was hanging with the left side of his head towards Obama that he would have believed that Obama was a deporter in chief so That was not a reelection number one that actually won, but I think what I mean is not that yes, but I think that the administration recognizes the vulnerability of Latin America, it is one of the reasons why, as you know, Common, the vice president has We have invested about 3.5 billion dollars, but the most important part is that we have to divorce ourselves from these two issues because what we find in our surveys is that among young Latinos, who represent 35 percent of the voter base, it is one of the three main themes: immigration.

It's immigration for them and they've separated themselves from borders, it's absolutely a different thing, but tomorrow in the Senate you can probably find 60+ votes for a pretty comprehensive bill that addresses immigration, if you had some compromise on both, Right? You'll find a gang to send them. If we're told to do it, the problem is that Kevin McCarthy is never going to introduce any compromise bill on immigration because he could effectively be giving up his position as president, but we all know what would happen in the Republican primaries, so he's There, there's something there, but we're going to pause there before we go.

My colleague Lester Holt will sit down with the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak. It is his first interview on American Network. Meet the new British Prime Minister by tuning in on Monday. Nightly News with Lester Holt, that's all for today, thanks for watching, we'll be back next week because if it's Sunday it's Meet the Press foreign, thanks for watching our YouTube channel, follow today's top stories and breaking news by downloading the NBC News app.