This Cloud Of Smoke Is Controlling Our Weather…

Welcome back everyone. Ryan Hall here with the

weather

forecast. There's a lot going on right now, so let's jump right into the forecast. First of all, what the hell is going on here in the northeast? We have

smoke

and apocalyptic scenes on Casey Neistat's Twitter here. This is not a filter. This is not edited. This is what New York City looked like yesterday for most of the day, as an emergency level situation developed due to air quality. A dangerous amount of

smoke

particles filled the air yesterday across much of the Northeast, thanks to some wildfires, some pretty intense wildfires in Canada.

And

this

is what New York City looked like, which is one of the most incredible things I've ever seen in my life. There will be more smoke today. I don't think it's going to be that bad, but we'll see

this

level of smoke in perhaps more places as we go. And let me show you the smoke forecast. Okay, so what you're seeing here is our plume of smoke that came down from Quebec from all of these wildfires, and that's building up over the northeast. And the really bright colors are where we have the highest concentration of smoke.

Now, this is around 8am. from this morning. By the time you're watching this, it's probably noon, maybe 1:00 p.m. m., and as you can see, everything is moving a little further south and getting a little more diffuse. We don't have as much high-contrast smoke as we saw yesterday, but we can still see some haze in the air as far south as Atlanta, Georgia today, as smoke continues to build up here along the East Coast. Now, I don't see any signs of orange skies or red dystopian vistas in the near future in places like Washington, DC. and Baltimore, but today through tomorrow we will see some smoke and it may reach unhealthy levels.

So, this is what the smoke will look like as we move forward in the near future. This lasts until 4am. m. and 5 a.m. m. Saturday, and everything seems to calm down a little at this time. But we still have a light layer of smoke across much of the eastern United States. And any new fires here in Canada will suck more smoke into the United States. This is something we will have to monitor as we move forward. Now, why does this happen? Why is there smoke, like what's happening here? This is not a common thing on the east coast.

Many of you here in the west are used to seeing this, but in New York City, the reason why that sight was so crazy yesterday is because this is not a normal thing. Well, it's because a couple of abnormal things are happening. First, we have a winter trough practically establishing itself over the east coast. This drop in the jet stream is very rare in June, and wildfires are not that uncommon. Typically, you'll see the smoke that appears here blow out to the northeast, okay? And then go up towards the Atlantic Ocean. The reason we're seeing so much smoke right now is because of this depression, right?

It's locking all this air in the same place. So when a fire forms up here, it just wanders down and then it just spins around and builds up because there's nowhere to go. It's locked in this channel. And smoke isn't the only thing this channel blocks in place. What else does Canada have? It's not just fire and smoke. It is very fresh air. And you can see it very clearly here. You can see exactly where the feeder is. You can see a clear boundary between warm air and cold air. And that is what is happening with this channel.

Not only do we have smoke, but we also have fresh Canadian air over Pennsylvania and surrounding areas. And this boundary determines where we see our thunderstorms. So this time of year, we get a lot of showers and thunderstorms. There is a lot of energy coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and this depression and this area of ​​smoke is dictating where that is happening. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that this smoke thing, this big conglomeration of smoke, literally controls our climate. What you decide to do 100% determines what happens to the rest of our

weather

systems.

Because if this wall stays here, then everything is going to hit it, explode here and fade away, and we will continue to experience dry conditions anywhere east of it. So the big wall of smoke is absolutely

controlling

our weather right now. And we are completely at its mercy because many other storm systems are trying to form here and move east, but they can't because of the trough. Now, this isn't going to last forever, but the complexities of the intensity of the trough and the amount of advection of this warm air as we move into the future will dramatically change the type of weather we will see.

And one of the things we're definitely going to have to deal with as we move into June is severe weather. In fact, we have a slight risk of severe weather today from San Antonio to Houston. This is Thursday, June 8. Mainly risk of hail and wind. But you can see here that we have that little risk implemented. So make sure you're prepared for that. That will happen a little later today. And then on Saturday we have a slight and large risk from Oklahoma City to Tulsa, through Dallas, Shreveport and almost to Little Rock. This one could be a little more intense.

It still looks like a hail and wind threat for the most part, but we're thinking this might actually be a little further east than this, it might be a little further west. It all depends on what happens with our big smoke area and that trough that traps the colder air up there in the Northeast. Look at this. You can see it very clearly in the instantaneous flash rate of the EURO model from noon today until 1 p.m. We are going to have a lot of scattered showers and thunderstorms. It looks like a mesoscale convective system could form here in East Texas.

That's what's generating that slight risk of severe weather. Notice how there is no lightning or storm here and that is because of the trough. All this energy, all this moisture is hitting our wall. And if that wall moves further east, I think things will break loose as far as severe weather is concerned. But right now we have that little layer of protection. However, it won't mean much Saturday for the areas between Oklahoma City and Dallas because there will still be a significant round of severe weather as we move into Saturday. In fact, I think that slight risk will widen quite a bit.

This is all dispersed in nature, but there is a bit more organization. Once again, another mesoscale convective system is likely to try to form here in Oklahoma and accentuate the threat of hail and wind a little more, perhaps in the form of supercells at the beginning of the system as we head deeper into the day on Saturday . And then, from there, we observe that wall very closely. It looks like it's going to try to break up and we may be dealing with severe weather a little further to the east, and we have another storm system on the way and that's where things get a little crazy.

So I mentioned before that this is not normal, right? Having a depression as big as this in the eastern US in June is just not something you normally see and that's why we don't typically see the effects we're seeing. Well, it's not normal for the jet stream to be circling the continental US during June, okay? And this is why there's usually severe weather and stuff here in Canada this time of year. Don't get me wrong, we have mesoscale convective systems and severe weather in the southern, central, and eastern US all the time in June. But what we'll see as we go into next week is literally a spring-like jet stream setup where we could have some real interactions, some real wind shear, and some really tasty ingredients for severe weather.

And this could cause a multi-day severe weather threat from the Central Plains to the middle of the Mississippi Valley, perhaps even to the southeastern United States. This is something we'll have to watch very closely as there will be a lot of climbing here and it's June so we don't have to worry about humidity returning or heat indices or anything like that. All the energy will be there. We simply need some mechanism to lift it into the atmosphere. And this looks like it could be that. So I'm watching this very closely as it could be our next set of significant weather conditions.

We've had a little break. I've been feeling like I've been on vacation for a bit, but this active jet stream sweeping across the US in mid-June will definitely bring us back to reality here as we're going to go strong. weather until mid-June. And another thing to keep an eye on as we move into June is the tropics. Well? We have been seeing a very consistent signal of something entering the Gulf of Mexico as we approach the June 19-21 period. And if this really happens, the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, okay? And if we have this kind of big ridge up here, we won't have any persistent jet stream floating around the Gulf.

There will be nothing to stop it from exploding into a tropical storm or hurricane and eventually reaching the United States. Right now this shows that a hurricane will probably reach somewhere between Mississippi and Florida around June 21. Now this is not going to happen. This is just one model, but I've seen different tours that show this going all the way to Texas, going all the way to Louisiana, a couple of them even take it all the way to the Mobile area. This could disappear tomorrow. This is a departure into la la land   here. But it's something we're watching and it's something we need to remember because, well, we're entering the depths of hurricane season and this is something we need to pay attention to this time of year.

So don't worry too much about that. I'll keep you posted if this   develops into something more significant. And that is. That's all the time I have for you guys today. Thanks so much for looking. Tomorrow I'll be posting a video on the main channel that will go into all of these things even more in depth and we'll talk more about severe weather. So make sure you also subscribe to the Ryan Hall Y'all channel and we'll see you next time. Bye bye!