Jim Rogers: This Rally Will Be The Last One Before Everything Implodes

So we may have another gigantic

rally

, but that would probably be Richyon's

last

welcome. I am rich. I'm the founder Adam Taggart. Thanks for joining us for part two of our interview with legendary investor Jim Rogers, if you haven't seen it yet. First part of our conversation with Jim in which he explains why he expects 2023 to be the worst bear market and recession of his lifetime. Head over to our channel at youtube.com richyon and watch it there first. It sets the context for the investing topics we discuss in

this

video Jim also thinks the

rally

we're currently seeing in the stock market

will

be the

last

good rally before

everything

falls apart and shares his thoughts on which assets he thinks

will

hold up best the storm that's coming. make sure you stick around for it, okay let's start watching part two of our interview with Jim Rogers.

The global economy is slowing, we are likely on a trajectory toward the worst recession of his lifetime. That says there are cross currents that will go. here probably all the time but, in other words, cross currents, while things are slowing down, China may come to the rescue in the short term by opening up again and improving things a little, but overall the trajectory will be down and in At some point period, we're going to fall into a really bad global recession, it will probably be accompanied by a bad bear market, like you've been saying, maybe the worst bear market of your life and therefore of our lives too, head Of the arc. right, or is there something else you would put in there, well, I just want to add that you know there has been a lot of pessimism, as you well know, and in my experience, when there are large amounts of pessimism, something usually happens that breaks the Pessimism that we said we have had for the last few weeks because people at the Fed have talked about maybe we're not as tough or whatever, okay,

this

is not a projection, but let's assume there is peace. in your brain or something, you know, often something happens that breaks the pessimism, we get a big wave of optimism and a gigantic rebound.

There have often been gigantic rallies at the end of the global market, so it is the beginning of bear markets, so we may have another gigantic one. rally, but that would probably be the last one if you ask me, usually at the end of a long school market, when you have a gigantic rally at the end, that's usually the end. I mean, if you can remember the NASDAQ in late 1999 and 2000. I mean it's skyrocketed, someone doubled in six months or something, but just when we were about to crash, that's how the markets work, fortunately or unfortunately, so I just want to point out that when you have a lot of pessimism, start thinking about going to the other side.

For a while, that's a great point, we've had a lot of people on this channel who are experienced investors like you say, hey, some of the most violent rallies, you know, bull rallies have occurred in bear markets, which is something similar to the warning. you're giving here, we've also had people say we've had the longest secular bull market in history, about 40 years by some people's measurement, and you'd expect that to end with an explosive spike rather than a No I'm saying that you necessarily share that point of view, but the scenario that you just laid out could somewhat validate what those people are also saying, but what I hear you saying is that there are reasons why we could have a bad rebound.

What I hear you saying is that I wouldn't trust that, since this is a secular return to a bull market, that it is more of the last gasp, it is the last rally before things really go well, as I would repeat about the end of the 1999-2000 period with that beginning of that bear market shot up there at the end after a long secular bull market and then everyone would think the happy days are here again, this will go on forever, an interesting side hustle in 1999. I think that It was the exact year that The Wall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal, I mean, not some neighborhood newspaper started using those words in capital letters the expression the new economy capital n capital and that's how The Wall Street Journal referred to the world , it was the new economy absolutely and capital E them By the way, don't do it anymore, yes, after knowing, it took a while, but eventually they stopped capitalizing on the new economy, but that's how things get in the longboard markets , that's how wild they get and that last gasp, as we were discussing before, can be tremendously exciting if you're on the right side, okay, so in the immediate term don't be too pessimistic, reserve the right to participate in a big surge here, but don't become permeable because it could very well end.

I've heard I've seen too many times when everyone was on the same side of the boat. You better go to the other side of the ship when that happens. Understood, but looking at that trajectory here, then, um, it's there. Any particular advice you would give to the everyday investor, the viewer of this video here, who would love to get in on some upsides, but really their priority is not to get killed by the downsides, so they're probably less. looking for a short-term type of trade and more like, you know, is there a secular trend that they can take advantage of here?

I don't want to seed your answer, but I know you're a big fan of hard assets, but is there any particular advice you would give to these people? Going back to what I said before, when central banks panic and start printing money again, inflation returns and bonds are certainly in a bubble that they are not going to be in a bull market for decades, property is going to have problems , as we have discussed, many stocks have been a bubble, the only thing that is still cheap are real assets and if they print money, when they print money, some things will go up, but usually they are silver wheat, you know, real assets, the price of sugar is down 70 percent from its all-time high, that's not a bubble, the price of silver is down 70 percent from its all-time high, those aren't bubble type numbers, so the only thing that is cheap as far as I know, I mean yes there is property in some places yes blah blah but the only thing as a class is real assets and they go up when there is a lot of money printed so if people know about real assets. assets maybe they should do more research and do more homework and maybe that's a way to protect themselves, okay, and you know, right now, don't say, I'm not saying how long we're going to be in this, but right now.

It seems that we are in a period of disinflation, we are back in a period of disinflation just where we are falling from the highs that the CPI has had. Jerome Powell and his team are doing

everything

they can to kill the lawsuit. um, that's probably going to continue for a few more months or quarters, um, unless and until you know there's something that forces a Fed pivot in the interim, so I guess you'd say you know start doing your homework during this period, um and maybe. start with a little dollar cost averaging, but once there's a policy change and you either ease again, hike again, or sorry, cut rates again, then it's time to really dig into those assets that you just mention because we will return to inflation is training well, but some stocks will also rise.

I mean, you know, Hot Shots, Hot Shot stock is going to go up again for a while. Yes, everyone will rush up and say hooray! Happy days are here again. You know Amazon is going to shoot through the roof. for a while, you know 10 cents will skyrocket for a while, but in the end, usually for a while you have a bull market in real assets and those who know what they're doing, be prepared and Jim, how are you? So that's something like that. From the inflation market rule book, is stagflation any different? So let's say we have that sugar surge you're talking about, but we get to a point where inflation actually picks up, but economic growth doesn't.

And we're kind of stuck in this period where inflation is high but the economy isn't doing much. Is there anything that fits well with that Playbook? Well, I started investing in Uzbekistan recently, but most of the people who watch this show I couldn't find Uzbekistan on the map, it was one of the Soviet republics, it was a disaster, it was ruined by the communists and even after the communists, so it's very cheap, but now the people who run the place run the country. You and I would say it's cheap and there aren't many stocks, so that could be an example, but my main answer to that question that fuels Baker's booth is to only invest in what you know if you want to be successful, stick with what you know.

I know everyone who watches this show knows a lot about something, whether it's fashion, cars, sports or something, stick with what you know if you want to be successful. If I told you that you could have 25 investments in your life, you wouldn't jump in and out of every Hot Shot you hear on a show or somewhere or in the newspaper and be a successful investor but a lot of people said but that's boring, be boring if you You want to be a successful investor, be boring, don't go down to the bar. on Saturday night yelling about how much Amazon you own or whatever, be boring, go to the bar on Saturday night and let everyone say, "Oh my God, there's that guy again talking about his boring boring stocks, be boring if you want to be successful." That's great advice, I just want to remind people, you know how successful your investing career has been and you know how to get the nuggets of what works from a guy like you, folks you know, listen carefully when Jim speaks here .

You know he's talking about how he's performed over the arc of his career. Okay, Jim's still watching as we start to wrap things up here. I'm curious because I'm glad that several times in this conversation you've had. flipped to focus on where optimism may lie in the story. um, you're not just a shady wired guy, you're not at all, um, but you have two daughters and we've talked about some pretty serious issues facing the world. face in the future and I'm curious if there is any other advice beyond what you've shared so far. I'm just talking about life in general, as a parent, you know, raising children and in your case, two daughters and I have two daughters so I have a selfish hand um uh you know uh in this fight um you know how you can help them have some optimism in this future you know you're entering into um where there's going to be some of these challenges and you know you're a successful guy.

What are some success secrets just for happiness in life that you are passing on to your children? Well, the answer to that question is, and I don't know how to do it, but it's teaching. Discover your own passions and then follow your own passions Don't listen to your parents Don't listen to your teachers Don't listen to your friends Discover what you love and if people laugh at you when you tell them what you love and what you're going to do that it really means that you're doing the right thing you know you're on the right path so uh because that Adam those are the successful people in life that get up every The days that they never go to work they get up and they have fun and they're usually successful because they love so much what they do, no matter how absurd it is, you know, and even if they're not successful and I don't care because they're happy, you know, and you'd rather not be successful and be happy or be successful and be miserable, so I hope to help them discover what they really love and encourage them to do it, especially if it's absurd and esp.

If everyone else thinks we're wrong, well, Jim. I really appreciate that advice. I'm absolutely sure you have much better things to do than watch Wealthy on weekends and weekdays, but in our latest weekly market summaries. I ended up with Lance Roberts, we actually started to get pretty deep into this topic, exactly this, which is helping people, but particularly younger generations, find their way to their authentic career path and there are a number of resources and additional resources. and the tools that are available these days. I'm not going to go over them now, we're talking about them in that weekly series.

I'm only going to mention one though because I assume a lot of people will watch this video, Jim. because it's you, of all the ones I've found, the Johnson O'Connor aptitude test is by far the most useful if you're going to take one of these things, and folks, if you're watching, I'm not. I don't have time to tell you the whole story here in this video, but go and see that it is a hugely useful tool, especially when your children are younger and by younger I mean middle or older teenagers where they don't have a There's still a lot of life experience to draw from, but it really helps them understand some key elements of themselves that won't change for the rest of their lives and that can help them find their way toward what Jim is talking about here, which is itwhich really makes their hearts sing where they're going to perform better because they're leveraging their natural strengths and of course they're going to perform better and they're going to be recognized and rewarded for it, so you know they're going to win.

His business partners are I'm going to win, it's a great test, anyway, Jim, thanks for that. I didn't know what your answer was going to be, but it's wonderful. Wait a minute, what's the name? I want to go take it myself, yes. I think you should, but John Johnson, what is Johnson O'Connor's aptitude test? I'm ready to take it quickly in 30 seconds. It's GE over 100 years ago, they used to hire college grads and that was back in the days when you spent your entire career at the same company and they very wisely said you know we're recognizing that everyone They're better at certain things than everyone else, and if we could figure out what someone's personal superpowers are when we hire them well, we could design a career path for them at this company in which they play to their strengths. with their best result they will be the happiest and they all agreed that they just needed one test, so they hired this researcher, a guy named Johnson O'Connor, who created the test and it worked so well that they turned it into a non-profit organization. profit.

It's been running ever since, so over a hundred years, over a million people have taken it, there's a ton of data, so there's no guesswork, it's just super statistics, very cool. I'll go take it right, Jim, okay, look. I can't thank you enough, Jim, for coming back to us, especially when you're traveling to a foreign country and coming out of quarantine, and you're clearly in a wonderful place, the Rogers Lounge, so thank you for taking the time to talk to us. I hope to have you back on the show in 2023 to call us some audibles when we know a little bit more about what it's going to be like there, but I really appreciate it, Jim, thank you so much.

All in all, it's always a lot of fun. I look forward to 2023. I hope we all survive because we all survived the tough times. Well, now it's time for the channel where we bring in the senior partners of New Harbor Financial, one of the supported financiers. Richyon advisory firms to react to what Jim said and talk about what's happening in the markets and there's actually some important things to talk about in the markets relative to what Jim said, um John, why don't we do we start with you? Listen to your reaction to Jim's comment, but maybe we can also start by looking at the markets right now.

They've had a bit of an up week and seem to be approaching a critical level here. They are approaching the 200 daily moving average. There is a headline here at Zero Hedge that says uh s p is 20 points away from a possible key breakout level. Here now Jim talked about us potentially being in what he called, quote, the ultimate rally, so how important is this technical level? I'm a little disappointed you didn't use your bow. I'm a little disappointed that you didn't use your bow. ata, uh, the same way you did when Jim Grant was on the show, but wouldn't it be fun to sit in the Rogers uh Lounge where he was and have a coffee with him or some other drink?

Really really funny guy, uh, I'd love to. To start with a tribute to his last piece of advice when you were talking to him about any advice he could give to the younger generation, his daughters, your daughters and your love, where he said, you know, you know, follow your passion, which is a cliché. I know and I don't think he says it the way a lot of people do and he said, "You know, if people laugh at you, you're doing the right thing." I love that advice, basically, be brave and and do the things that maybe other people aren't willing to do well and be authentic, fearless, authentic, yeah, exactly, um, but he's a really Egyptian guy, you know, many people might know that he co-founded the quantum fund with George.

Soros, they had an incredible track record. He, quote, retired in 1980 and rode his motorcycle around the world. He got the handles of the so-called Investment Bank. Biker, so he has a lot of perspective and certainly lives in Asia as he does. I think he's a really unique Alabama kid. I think he grew up in Alabama and looked at the US from Asia, which gives him a world of perspective that is reflected in some of the humorous interpretations of him. where we are in the world, but yeah, he, so, look, we've been saying for the last few months that we think we're in, uh, uh, probably the early stages of a secular bear market, but one that will probably be defined. as it has been so far this year to date and really all notable bear markets in history are defined by some very sharp bounces and rallies along the way.

In other words, bear markets don't happen in a straight line, it just so happens that we had a lot of frustration and it turns out that we are in the middle of a pretty strong balance that has brought us back to a very critical juncture in the markets. You know the S P 500 is right on its 200 day moving average, uh and and. a breakout above that, from a technical standpoint, I could know will certainly fuel some follow-through, gets into seasonality, things like the Santa Claus rally and the prospect of a, you know, a deadlocked Congress, all These are things that, anecdotally, can be supportive. of moves to the upside um and we are not uh at all um you know uh resistant to that possibility in fact we are quite open to it and we have made several tactical trades on the long side this year and In fact, today we are about to play another one, uh, we will, uh, I'll probably talk about um, but the bottom line is, um, you know, he, he, I think he summed it up very well, any great rally here. could be the last one before a really sharp drop, we agree it's pretty likely if we get a big continued move up here, in other words, people who are really looking to keep their retirement savings safe, know this one isn't It's the moment.

Being thinking about riding a multi-year bull market is, at best, a flash buy that sees more downside ahead and, you know, trying to time that exactly perfectly is very difficult to do, and even in the broad panorama. We think that, um, uh, stocks and it calls for a very conservative stance in the grand scheme of things, um, Jim said you know nothing is cheap except natural real assets and we agree with them, stocks are cheap and we'll talk more about that, but i. We'll stop there and I'm sure we have a lot more to talk about, okay Mike, we'll come see you and let you sound however you want.

If you can, talk about the importance of yes. we broke above the 200 day moving average, what kind of juice could that add to the markets here, especially since I think the 200 is not that far from the 50 day moving average and there is a technical term for if you break both? pretty quick it's that right yeah that's right Adam I'm taking a look at the chart that I have right now in front of me we're sitting at the 200 uh day moving average the 50 day moving average I need my glasses it's a bit. below and around 38 38.80 or so and so if we go up quickly or even if we go up slightly to one side for an intermediate period of time, the 50th day will cross the 200th day and you know, that's the so-called Golden Es That crossover is very likely to cause a more bullish reaction because it's a pretty simplistic indicator, but it's very followed and so even though we remain in this kind of hyper-overvalued state, if the technicals really do seem to indicate that we could go higher from here and What we will see the big picture is that we have been in a downtrend since the high on the s p which I think was on January 4th and it is a pretty well defined extended downtrend, almost like a basically megaphone bearish pattern and if we get a advance to the upside as you said, Zero Hedge said 20 points higher and I assume they are referring to the high of the handle and the so called recent cup and consolidation handle which again is only about 20 points higher you know? it's projected a little bit higher than here, only, again, if you look at the charts, it would be somewhere between 43 and 4,500 on the S P, that would be the short-term projection, at the same time, it would have a crossover of the 50s. almost certainly above the 200-day moving average, so this is what's really complicated about this environment.

As money managers or individual investors, we have a hyper-overvalued market that has not been allowed to sell off. You could even argue that we haven't really seen a true market clearing event in 30 years, you know, in 2008 the law was not a market clearing event. 2002 was not really a market clearing event in terms of Excursion to Undervaluation, even at the bottom in 2009 we only reached a cyclically adjusted p e. ratio of about 15, which is a long-term average at best, so you know we are dealing with this market that has been almost, you could say, permanently overvalued, we have internal components that are not great in terms of breadth and a lot of other things and this is a market that only operates based on what the Central Bank says and what people think the central banks are going to do and there were some conversations at the beginning of the conversation with Jim about the central banks you know, he says that this market has been driven by nothing more than artificial stimulation, he is right, but he also said that he believes that artificial stimulation is coming to an end, so we have a hyper overvalued market, a Fed that is adjusting the bad internal aspects of the market at the same time, very, very short.

In the short term here it looks like we had some bearishness a month or two ago that could have been extreme in the short term and was probably extreme in the short term and a technical pattern that seems to want to break out to the upside with a 50 to 200 day price. moving average crossover that looks likely if this continues, so what do you do? I think we would say just be careful if you're going to do something, make it tactically small, size small when I see tactically, keep your position size small if you know how. to use options, cover it with options, we certainly will, so we are considering adding a small trade in the regional banks today and we will certainly cover that with very short or near-the-money short calls, which will give some forgiveness , it will give us some forgiveness, maybe five or six percent down, something like that, but this is the type of market where you want to have some forgiveness for imperfect entries, so, in general, yes , short-term things actually look like this.

We want to break out to the upside but we are not going to take big positions and we would suggest that most people don't either and have a good amount of cash for which there will probably be many more opportunities in the future, all good and presumably. you know, if you're long and we're going up from here to the end of the year, don't put words in your mouth, I guess I'd say use that as an opportunity to lighten those positions at higher prices to accumulate cash as this rally shouldn't become gross. I would absolutely say, I mean, frankly, it would be lightning right here if you have too many stocks, bonds, long-term bonds have been hit hard, so I wouldn't do it.

I'm bound to say you know to immediately reduce your high-quality long-term bonds, but certainly, if you have stocks in your traditional mix 60 40, maybe 60 stocks 40 on balance, definitely look to lower stocks maybe towards 30 percent , you don't have to. all at once you can do it in pieces, although if you did it all at once, I think it would be good to rebalance it now, but yes, absolutely, because we don't know that this could just be a hoax, there are many times. that the market will break even if it breaks out of the cup and handle pattern and then it will fail immediately, the surprises should be to the downside in a bear market and I think this is, as Jim said, probably the biggest bear market of our lifetime, I think . said that someday we are going to have the biggest bear market of our lifetime and someday it could be today so I wouldn't be playing with the weather starting to lighten now and certainly if we go higher and lighten even more yeah and Jim, you know he has a great way of saying things, he doesn't beat around the bush, you know, this is the last rally before the worst bear market of our lifetime, which will coincide with the worst recession of our lifetime.

Should not. I'll be laughing at this, but you know there's a, he made a good case for why you know that might be the case here and look, you know nobody knows what's going to happen, and while we think there's a preponderance of evidence of what reasons to be bearish, you know, who knows the market, you know, it has caught people you know doing things they never thought could happen more times than we can count throughout history, so there could be a even bigger bull run here than you think. Potentially we're referring here, so you must know some part of your portfolio that is positioned in case of that, um, but I want to ask you withclarity, you know how you see things here, um, Mike.

I mentioned potentially getting to know a stock exposure level of 30. um, John, I'm coming to you with this question. I know that in your new hardware portfolio, as you have told us, your largest stock holdings are in precious metal mining companies. Well, um, and you tell me, I guess you won't go if we have a good rally in the markets and everything participates in that over the next month. I guess you probably won't relax. too much into those stocks, um, let me know if that's not the case and also my assumption, correct me if I'm wrong, is that as miner prices go up, rather than lightening, it will probably add more hedges to the position in case If there is a general market correction and that causes those stocks to go down, you are hedging that exposure, you have what your answer is thereYes, precious metal mining stocks are one of our most heavily weighted stock exposures right now, forgetting What they do for a moment, they are as big a value play as can be found in the stock market right now.

They did a tremendous job cleaning up their balance sheets. They have really attractive free cash flow, so forgetting what they do, they are fundamentally good value stocks, we think right now they have faced some big challenges of late and that's why I've been covering them, but they've had a very nice bounce in the last couple of weeks here, um, GDX as a proxy bounced from the 20s to around $28 a share, so it's been a very, very nice bounce here from so we think we're at levels very oversold, uh, and yes, further strength is usually a good sign, especially when you get something of such value and so oversold, so we would probably go ahead with that move higher if it happened to move our hedges up maybe relax a little those hedges when I say move hedges up, it's pretty much the same notion as a trailing stop for people who use stop orders, you know, basically allowing discipline to trend up with stocks as that advances.

Further up, we also have a pretty heavy weighting in emerging market stocks, which themselves are deep stocks relative to the US stock market, and we actually have good exposure, one thing I want to point out . You know this is a year when most stocks and bonds are down for people who have invested heavily and passively, maybe so when Mike talked about using this time to lighten exposure to stocks, actually presents for most people a good It's time to do it, but at the same time mitigate capital gains taxes because they're probably some opportunities to harvest losses elsewhere in the portfolio, so this is a very Good time for If people have been reluctant to sell high-flying stocks because they don't want to incur capital gains, there's a good chance they can sell them and offset the otherwise taxable gains through loss harvesting.

That's something we try to do with some discipline, where it makes sense for our clients. The year is coming up, uh, in the calendar year, great and there are two things I want to mention just to build on your comment. John, one is, um, in terms of the mechanics of how you would use options to protect the position. I just want to remember you. people who may not have seen it, you and Mike did a really great free webinar to explain the basics of the options to people and explain how to use them. They know some basic strategies and how to use them. protect to protect positions friends If you haven't seen it and if that's a topic that interests you, just go to richyon.com, options trading and you can see it.

There you got a lot of great feedback on that quick question. I think it was options hedging, not options trading, oh. God, I'm sorry you're right about the options coverage and we'll make sure that when we put the overlay on the screen we show the correct URL, thanks for the correction, John, um and then you mentioned the tax loss, the pickup that we've mentioned. I've done it a couple of times recently on this show, so I'm not going to go back and re-register that horse, but I just want to tell people that if you have some losses in your portfolio, it can be a very smart strategy. to reduce taxes as John mentioned and it's great to call your professional financial advisor now as we approach the end of the year to get some guidance on tactics that you know that you might want to implement in your own portfolio to maximize your your your tax losses, um , okay, so, um, Michael comes back to you with this question, do you know that the markets are, um, up a little bit this week?

Now it's a light trading week, this is Thanksgiving, we're going into the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US um and we just talked about some technical reasons why the market, you know, could go up more here as we get closer to the end of the year and we've talked about this show with you and some of the other experts on this channel about, you know, the capital flows that happen at the end of the year with the major funds , where they basically sell their losers and then buy back the companies that performed the best this year.

There are many showcases happening around the end of the year that add some additional buying pressure to the big stocks. Additionally, buybacks are back in effect, so there is a lot right now that could drive the market. A little bit further up from here, I want to point out something that continues to develop here, which is the FTX scandal and, um, it seems like every day you know there's some new development there that leaves us speechless about how absolutely mismanaged, um and in many cases, FTX appears to have been fraudulently managed, but the more serious thing is that, you know, a lot of value has been vaporized as the world has woken up and you know what happened there, and then the remaining assets that were in the FTX portfolio.

The auditors who are sifting through the rubble have said that a good amount of those assets are missing or stolen, so I mean we're talking billions and probably total losses in the tens of billions here. We're starting to get names from hedge funds and you know other big players that were caught off guard by this that had substantial funds in FTX or subsidiaries of FTX and so there's this sense of contagion that's developing in real time. at the moment. that we don't know how deep it goes, how far it goes, the last estimate I've heard in terms of creditors that will line up against FTX here is in the millions right now, but like I said, There will be some big players that will lose a lot in this;

They could be catastrophic losses for these companies and because these things tend to happen, these scandals you don't know who they are on day one or day two of the process. The crisis is often discovered a month later, three months later, etc. um, so that's another kind of shoes to drop and a story here that could actually be very negative for the market, as we suddenly discover that knows some big funds, uh, all of them. Suddenly, they're forced to liquidate because, you know, they reveal it to the world. Hey, I know no one knew this, but I lost my shirt at FTX and we're going to have to close here, so how big is the concern about the risk of contagion? you right now, oh, I think contagion is quite likely.

I mean, I think there's a lot of problems out there that we don't see yet, like they like, they say you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. and, for example, I don't think we would have ever discovered Bernie Madoff if it weren't for the housing crisis of 2008-2009. In a mega bubble they can get away with anything, but once things start to break down you can really see where the frauds are and maybe that's too strong a word but there is some, if not fraud, certainly hot air built into this, the biggest bubble of our lifetime that we've been living in, you know, Bitcoin and all the other cryptocurrencies were I'm just stuck in that whole bubble, particularly in 2021.

Bitcoin just takes it below 15,000. Yesterday again be above 16,000 now and who knows what the real value is. I still don't see many places where you can spend cryptocurrency. I know there are some, but you know it seems to have gotten caught up in this in this whole bubble and of course you just mentioned FTX which is part of it. Coinbase is another example, I don't want to say Coinbase, but um, Cell, there was a place called Celsius, where you can deposit your cryptocurrency and get paid with an interest rate of 8 to 12. It seemed too good to be true.

Now, in retrospect, it seems too good to be true and there are probably a lot of other things out there that we have no idea what. They are and once one thing is triggered, uh, it is triggered and often another chain reaction is triggered as you said and this is all due to Jim's use of words, you know, central banks have printed money like crazy and they will probably do it again. They'll print money until they run out of trees, I think he said in his words, and you know we've tried to abolish market cycles, but you really can't.

He mentioned the Old Testament, you have seven good years and seven bad years. or bad years and in the last 30 years we have had this kind of permanently high plateau of hyperal evaluation, at the same time that the debt has been expanding from maybe seven or eight trillion in 2008 to 31 trillion now and now every time. we try to correct the run of the central banks and they save us and of course everyone says and the politicians also say please save us, please save us, and the central banks do it, so we have created these bad incentives for you to actually get out . a tip about the leverage too much speculation and I have no hesitation in shutting down this thought that there are a huge number of bodies buried there then we just don't know what they are and we will find out as soon as This develops as I almost certainly agree with Jim once again, we're probably at or near the beginning, even if we get one more big peak, of the biggest bear market and biggest recession of our lives, so that's okay. well said and that's a good kind of trajectory for the conclusion here where I want to take this is, um, many of the experts who have participated in this program, uh again, not all of them completely agree, but an Arc consensus is a kind of um the bear market isn't over it's going to go down even further for a lot of the reasons that Jim mentioned um and at some point um it's probably going to get bad enough um the recession the collateral damage of all the feds uh walking and tightening quantitative and wherever, um, the central banks, the Federal Reserve and other central banks, um, will probably be squeezed and cut and forced to engineer another bailout, and then that bailout could potentially be the biggest one we've seen yet. , and so from a standpoint Um, you know, the destruction of purchasing power from a monetary standpoint, that's a real concern that people are right, it's like you know they tricked us out of the pandemic, they created the last hurray of the everything bubble that is now bursting.

Right now, the Federal Reserve's hands are tied in the short term, as are many other central banks because current inflation is going to lead us to disinflation and perhaps real real deflation that will get so bad that they will have to do it. engineer another bailout that many experts believe is going to be really inflationary, right? And that, of course, brings people back to the topic of gold. I know that John, that's not the reason why you guys are investing in the miners right now. oh, we're worried that the value of the dollar will go to zero tomorrow.

I know you guys have long-term concerns, but I know your fundamental positioning in those companies right now is largely based on how cheap they are valued. because of the cash flows that they have, but there are a lot of people who have long-term concerns about fiat currency and I'll let them give any comments on whatever they want, but it's one of the reasons I'm bringing this up, people believe it. or not, it is because this is Thanksgiving week along with Thanksgiving Day, today in modern culture is Black Friday, you know that many people start their Christmas shopping and on this channel a year ago I briefly mentioned a company that shares investors with richyon that was offering a special offer to Wealthy for viewers last year.

We got a lot of good feedback that they're extending the same offer this year, so I just want to mention it very briefly, it's a company called. is a jewelry company, a precious metal jewelry company and basically their mission is to look at, we believe that there are many good reasons to own gold and that people of all socioeconomic levels should own some gold or be sober,possess it in many ways, as you offer, you recommend. It's almost like a kind of crisis coverage, just have some on hand, but the premise is, why not have it in a form that you like?

Furthermore, by making well-designed jewelry, you increase its attractiveness. a broader audience than just people who are concerned about the purchasing power of fiat currency, so they are introducing more people to the precious metals lifeboat, even if people don't realize that's why they come. They think they're just coming because they're buying some pretty jewelry, and of course, we've heard a lot of stories here of people who, you know, believe in the reasons to own some precious metals, but their spouse doesn't. I really don't agree at all and many of you know friction about why you are buying gold and silver.

It seems like a waste of time and money. Often that conversation is very different when you say: Hey honey, here are some gems. and it was just received as a really nice gift, so anyway, the company is called. From now until November 28, um, for all full price 22 and 24 karat gold jewelry and all full price sterling silver jewelry, they're offering 50, sorry, 15 percent off and a discount for all rich viewers if you visit the above website. something you like just type AU wealth 15. I'll put that code here on the screen when you check out and you'll get the 15 off there so great people just wanted to let you know you were getting so nice.Little profit from Auber again this year.

I also want to mention a couple of other quick and free resources as we wrap one up here, like I've been doing in all of our big interviews. I recently wrote up my key takeaways from the interview with Jim, so if you don't feel like you took good enough notes or want to see what I captured from them, just go to Adam's notes on richyon.com and you'll get them there for free, also just a quick reminder if you haven't watched John and Mike's options hedging webinar and would like to watch it after this video. Just go to Richy on.com.

Bar John's coverage options. I'll let you have the last word. sending us here, um, I want to just hand over the baton to you in the spirit of the week of Thanksgiving and gratitude. I want to thank you and Mike again for being such great advocates of financial literacy, huge supporters of richyon um, you and I have been working together for about a decade before I founded Wealthy on uh and you guys have helped. I've seen you help, uh, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds, probably thousands at this point, of clients that we've referred to you over the years, um, I really appreciate your calm, uh, and managed risk management. of client assets, and given the kind of future Jim sees us in, it looks like we're going to need that more. than ever, so I'll let you finish here John, yeah, thank you Adam and really on behalf of our entire team, at New Harbor, we've really enjoyed and appreciated our continued collaboration with you, it's been over a decade and Um, the work that has done at Richian to expand The Horizon and the education has been extraordinary and, uh, congratulations, congratulations, we're thrilled to be a small part of that experience, um and uh, at the end of the day, we're here for some very important work, You know, and it's a humbling job when we're in the trust business, we have no doubt about it, this involves a huge amount of trust.

We are asked to do something very important. for things for clients and their hard-earned assets that have all kinds of implications on their life, on their real life, on the actual daily decisions they can make, the psychological and emotional journey that their financial life brings them, so that people resort. for us for their education or if they end up becoming a client for their management and guidance, it's really humbling and we're so grateful that they ask us and, you know, and give us the opportunity to do something so important because it's a job. significant. It's not always fun for us, it's a challenge to see the profession in these times, for sure, but it's important and we're very grateful for that, well Mike, I'll let you comment here as well as we go.

I just want to say that I am also very grateful for the continued trust our clients place in us and we are grateful for the people we talk to all the time every day who are not our clients or who do not become clients, we enjoy every one from those conversations and last but not least, Adam, we want to thank you and Wealthy on for everything you know, the partnership and the great work that we've done together and you've allowed us to have. This platform is simply about educating, so thank you very much and I want to wish you all a great thing.

Thanksgiving is great and yes, thank you all for the kind words, but really in my case, guys, I have the wonderful job of really just being the avatar of the viewer here, I mean, literally, I'm like everyone. to the rest of you watching this, who are just trying to figure out what's going on and trying to pick the brains of the smart experts out there and thank you all for being included. in that, the experts at CAD Drive and the fact that they are willing to participate in this program week after week, in addition to having all the free conversations with people that you have during those consultations, and it's interesting, you know, I get asked a lot .

Hey, do you know what the criteria were that they used when choosing financial advisors and there was a checklist that we went through and you know risk management is a big part of it, performance is a big part of it, um transparency, independence, all that kind of stuff except the number? one on the list is reliability and the great thing about you guys in particular is that we have such a long history here that it's not a thesis, it's a reality, which means I've worked with you long enough to see how you handle yourself on many types different situations, uh, and the verdict is on that and one of the things that I appreciate about you guys, which is important for our viewers here, is that at the end of the day, the currency here is trust, why?

The people who come back and listen to them on this channel are because they have proven to be quality advisors who provide, they know the quality of the comments week after week, but they are also a good manager of client assets and that's old stuff. Saying it takes a lifetime to gain trust, but it can be lost in a second, right? You understand exactly how important retention is, you know your role there, and you don't do anything adverse or that could jeopardize that sense of trust. in you and that's what makes me like guys risk their necks in terms of brands uh with this relationship I sleep very well at night um and in that sense friends um uh you hear me say this all the time uh but yeah uh Look, given everything that these guys and I just talked about and with Jim, obviously not surprising, we think that you should work with a good professional financial advisor if you have a good one, stick with them, but if you don't.

You know this is the time, given everything else we just talked about, especially as it relates to your end, where there are many of you who know specific tactics that you could adopt in the next 30 days in your portfolio. uh, to talk to a financial advisor. Make sure they're good ones and take into account all the macro issues we've talked about here, and if you don't have a good one on hand, or would like a second opinion on one, you know. fill out the short form on richyon.com talk to one of the advisors we support, maybe even John and Mike and their team in New Harbor, it's totally free, there's no obligation, it doesn't cost you anything, it's just a public service that is offered.

Um, this is really special as we approach the end of the year deadline. They know the right time to do all of this, especially given what we all think might happen next year. Alright guys, look again. Thank you so much. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, uh, take it. Easy on the turkey, uh, I know we all want to go crazy this time of year and you probably know that I'll let the monster out of the cage a little bit, um, but remember that health is the greatest wealth, um, to all else, just thank you. So much for seeing John and Mike, whatever happens in the markets over the next week, it'll probably be a little quiet given the Thanksgiving holiday, but I'm sure there will be some curveballs, whatever they may be, we'll talk about them next week. everyone else have a wonderful Thanksgiving and thanks for watching, thank you all, see you soon Adam, happy Thanksgiving everyone and see you soon Adam, thank you if you would like to schedule a consultation with one of the financial advisors at New Harbor Financial, just go.

At richyon.com, these consultations are completely free and there are no conditions. The good people at New Harbor will simply answer any questions you have about your investment goals or portfolio and give you their best advice given their latest market outlook. Doing this because they care about protecting people's wealth and because Richyon has connected them with so many thoughtful investors like you over the last decade, we started doing this because so many people have come to us frustrated looking for a solution because they feel out of alignment. or downright ridiculed by the standard financial advisors who have been managing your money, you know, the guy who just pushes all your money into the market scoffs at the idea of ​​owning gold and when you raise concerns about the market skyrocket. -high valuations say don't worry, the market will always take care of you for many of the reasons discussed in today's video we believe this is one of the most challenging and treacherous times in history for investing we firmly believe that today's investors They are best served working in partnership with a conscientious professional financial advisor who understands the risks involved.

We are now independent which professional advisor you work with, as long as they are good, if you are already working with one who is fantastic, stick with them, but if you don't have or are having trouble finding one you respect or trust, consider talking with John and Mike and the New Harbor team now. For those interested in asking, yes, there is a business relationship between Richyon and New Harbor that we have established to make sure everything is handled in accordance with SEC regulations. All the details regarding this are clearly provided on the richian.com website. Additionally, it is important to note that New Harbor can work with US citizen green card holders and those with existing assets in the US, but for regulatory reasons, they cannot accept non-US clients.

With all that said, if you would like information and guidance on how to protect your wealth during this unprecedented time in the markets, visit wealth.com to schedule. your free consultation with the good people of New Harbor thanks for watching foreign news