Keller @ Large: Analysis reveals Geoff Diehl lost large number of Republican voters

welcome back to our conversation with the director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University, Dave paliolocus, one of the top pollsters in the country, Dave, let's talk about the Massachusetts elections here. The Republican gubernatorial candidate only got 82 of the Republican votes in his post. -election

analysis

20 of Republican primary

voters

opted for more healing, that's a big

number

, isn't it at all? I mean, Republican

voters

should vote 95 96 for the candidate with so many people respecting the critics and then among the voters who had voted for Chris Doty facing his opponent in the Republican primary, they sought a greater cure 41 to 35, if Have you ever seen anything like that, no, and independents got about 20 percent of those voters, which shows total dissatisfaction in a division within the Republican Party, an issue that Republicans are going to have to deal with on a serious level, Well, to me, that says the race for a bad GF deal ended the day Donald Trump endorsed him more than a year before Election Day, maybe even going back further in the party. leadership, but President Jim Lyons and his decision to become a Whole Hog Trumpist, yeah, we never say impossible.

I mean, in the polls you know, but you're absolutely right, after primary day, it was very unlikely that a deal could be reached given the demographics. The agreement was going to be able to overcome our healing, okay, let's talk about one of the results of the electoral question, specifically question one, the so-called millionaires tax, which went from 52 to 48. Uh, you and the majority or, if not, everyone else. The pollsters gave the correct result but not the margin. Your last poll had question one winning 58-37. That's a pretty big difference. How do you explain what happened? Yes, absolutely part of the reason why surveys like the one in Massachusetts don't.

What counts for our score is that it was more than three weeks presented more than three weeks before the election, there is still no reason to explain why we had the Yes side at 58 and the Yes side was actually 52, which six points were outside the margin, so I think what we take into account in a survey is that you are registering people who may vote blank or who may change their mind in that three-week interval and in this election there were more than a hundred thousand people who voted blank, meaning they vote for governor and other offices and then skip voting for ballot questions.

In our survey we made sure that everyone answered not only the government this question but also the valid question, so I think we recorded some of the support that may or have changed their mind in the last three weeks or who may have voted blank well you You're going to laugh because I'm going to regurgitate a theory that I shared with you a couple of months ago and there's no way to prove it but I want your quick final opinion as we wrap up here, that maybe there were voters who gained Booth to vote for all Democrats in all parts of the ballot and then, in a sort of classic contemporary Massachusetts style, maybe you want to send a little bit of a last minute message to all this blue ticket, voting yes or rather voting no one, well, there would be some chance that be right, you know, I think, I think that's possible, I mean, you know, one of the problems on the no side over the last three weeks is just to create doubt right when you're on the negative side of an election question, nor You don't even have to convince people to vote No.

If you raise doubts, people will go for the negative side just to keep things the way they are and to make it harder for the S side to hold on. There is usually people who walk away from the site as a general rule when questions arise about what the legislature is going to do with this with this tax increase and so on, and the no side was very effective in closing the gap much closer than most the polls showed Dave paliolocus Suffolk University Political Research Center great job on the polls thanks for joining us, it's a pleasure, take care