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Mr. Dax Dirk Müller: "Wir sehen einen massiven Wirtschaftskrieg - jetzt Operation Dagobert"

Mar 17, 2024
Dear viewers, we live in turbulent times after the coronavirus crisis in Ukraine, war, inflation, recession, energy crisis. At least we are not out of the crises and how investors can perhaps get through this relatively well. I am discussing this today with Mr. DAX with Dirk Mü

ller

contacted me from nearby Frankfurt Dirk, nice to see you, hello fear, yes, I have already said one crisis after another, now the markets have experienced such a rally in recent weeks , this Maybe now is the starting signal for an autumn rally, so that all the negative things can be seen.
mr dax dirk m ller wir sehen einen massiven wirtschaftskrieg   jetzt operation dagobert
This year's things can be left behind, as you know, unfortunately it is always behind and we are in the massive downward subordinate movements, there everything is intact and unchanged and of course in this downward movement there will always be a bullish formation, the rallies of the bear market and that. The stupid thing is that you never know if this is just another bear market rally or what's to come, the big countermove and permanent upmove. , especially or will it fall again after 10 to 20%, we have had it since the beginning of the year. We have seen time and again bullish moves in the falling market this year, but this year they are also disappointing. and we will certainly be watching that for a while, but at some point there comes a point where it just doesn't come back anymore, it just keeps going up and then you'll say shit, after all it was already low, so stupidly in the stock markets you always know where it goes next.
mr dax dirk m ller wir sehen einen massiven wirtschaftskrieg   jetzt operation dagobert

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mr dax dirk m ller wir sehen einen massiven wirtschaftskrieg jetzt operation dagobert...

I have good reasons why I think we will still have a lot more pressure, but I also have to accept and recognize that this can happen at any time. The market is going uphill and we can't miss it either, so it's a very, very exciting time, as is often the case in stock markets, but timing is once again what matters. In some crises like this, a year ago we would have said inflation would be ten percent and I wouldn't have thought that was possible. Now we are here, even if things are getting worse again in the US.
mr dax dirk m ller wir sehen einen massiven wirtschaftskrieg   jetzt operation dagobert
Central banks are slowly taking action, raising interest rates and want to counteract this. How is inflation evaluated at this time? So first I have to make it clear where inflation comes from and what the increase in interest rates actually brings and then you will be surprised to realize that something is not adding up because the increases in interest rates hardly have any effect on this form. of inflation that we see. They hardly have a braking effect on inflation the other way around, what effect do increases in interest rates have? Rising interest rates affect all areas in which I borrow.
mr dax dirk m ller wir sehen einen massiven wirtschaftskrieg   jetzt operation dagobert
It slows down and makes lending more expensive, which is why I take out loans to buy real estate. I also take loans to, for example, buy a car or buy long-term assets, industrial investments where it is not affected by food prices, gasoline prices and other things and that is exactly where inflation comes from. , inflation comes from food prices, inflation comes from energy prices and inflation comes from the lack of Asian goods from China in particular and that is why they rise Interest rates have almost no influence and high Commodity prices and high energy prices are not because we have such a strong economy and therefore energy prices are high, but because of a scarcity and scarcity that I can hardly combat with rising interest rates unless it really drives my economy into a recession so deep that it actually drives down demand even further, but of course it would also destroy an incredible amount of the economy, so interestingly, interest rate increases have no effect in the areas where inflation comes from.
Sorry, you don't eat less just because interest rates are high, you simply have to spend more on food and that's what drives inflation. Curiously, sometimes it is food, sometimes it is a lack of chips, then again it is a lack of raw materials that is saved, so the Chinese confinements here have very, very effects and the Chinese, curiously, for this time they lack one and that also means that the basic effect is barely noticeable because when one goes down the other goes up again, that's a very interesting story that we see here, so something has to be different here behind this increase in interest rates, In the US we already have four percent again, in Europe with the ECB a good two percent, what does that mean?
Do you just push the markets lower first because they prefer to have a zero interest rate policy to express what is happening here? In my opinion, and it is not entirely unfounded, what we are seeing here is a massive economic war between the US and China. Um, I announced what's happening right now years ago. The processes that are taking place now have been announced and described in advance, not because I am clairvoyant or particularly intelligent. but because what is happening here has been developing for a long time and is developing in a predictable way. The larger the system, the longer the processes and because we are at a more strategic level.
At the level of a huge system, the processes are extremely long over many years. years or decades and therefore it is relatively easy to predict its development and what we see here. China has clearly decided to take global power away from the United States. The United States, of course, wants to avoid that and they do it now economically or at a later time. At the same time, a military exchange between two nuclear powers is not exactly popular, which is why, in their view, the Americans are doing it exactly now and at exactly the right time to disengage the Chinese with massive rate increases. of interest, which will not happen otherwise: the Chinese real estate bubble that we knew 40 years ago is about to reach its Minsky moment, just before the bursting of this bubble like in the late 80s in Japan and the rapid rise of US interest rates.
They are the decisive cornerstone that practically spins its ass on the precipice that helps the Chinese real estate sector to overcome the minskippe and so that a massive economic recession with all the consequences can and probably will be unleashed in China, as happened in Japan in late nineteenth century. 80s and I believe and am convinced that the increases in US interest rates have much more to do with the Chinese economic and real estate bubble than with the increases in interest rates in the US, the Chinese, in turn, are counter-pressures on the United States through lockdowns are raising inflation for Americans in an area they cannot influence with interest rates and are therefore putting pressure on the US government.
A competition between these two and I think very few people understand it right now. that both lockdowns and interest rate increases have a lot less to do with superficial issues of inflation in the US and a lot more to do with causing harm to the other here in this economic war, that's what it means. In principle, we In the coming months and years we are witnessing such an economic war: interest rates in the US will remain high for longer or the US Federal Reserve may next year go down slowly so that the stock markets can also Get going, you can see exactly This topic will not be remembered until last year.
Many well-known financial experts have said it, and I say it exactly the same way, so, with all due respect, central banks will never raise interest rates. Interest rates are high if they go up to two percent, but the highest is two and a half percent, but then it's all over, they won't make the same mistake in 1929, when an overly motivated Fett raised interest rates. interest too much and triggered an economic catastrophe and they said that inflation was only temporary, not temporary, it continued to rise and the central bank has already raised interest rates more than was thought possible and has already announced that we now officially assume that we will be in the terminal rate of 5 5 1/2% is in the US and that is the fastest and strongest increase in interest rates since the 80s, but not within an exuberant economic performance but in extremely difficult times because the figures of the Federal Reserve say that the general conditions are the economic conditions for the real estate sector. purchases, car purchases or even economic durable goods is between its lowest and worst since records began in the 1960s and this is where interest rate rises are having an impact on an already devastated area of ​​the economy although they have little impact. in any area that is really being fueled by inflation, so that's where we are at a very, very dangerous point for the American economy and of course also for the Chinese economy, yes, and we, the Germans and the Europeans, I say, when two titans fight each other in the arena then we should stand up, the problem is that we cannot escape if we fight this war.
Deep down we have pretty much what that means for the stock markets, for the financial markets in the US, but also for us, for the DAX, that means exactly what we are currently seeing: we continue to see the market rallies bassist because you think they do that, not that we do that. The central bank won't do it, they never will. For us, in the last ten years it has been said that interest rates would never rise because the American economy and especially the American State with its high levels of debt cannot afford it and suddenly they are talking about a terminal rate of five and a half per cent. hundred. that means no, we have misjudged that Fett has a different agenda here than saving the markets right now, that is not his main problem right now, quite the opposite and it is always the hope that yes, but now you will definitely see them soon . it's bad economic data, now they will cut interest rates again very quickly, then everything will be fine again and then there will be this next bearish material again and then you will realize that the central bank will continue for longer, it will go even higher and higher than we feared The next way down comes the question: at what point will the US Federal Reserve actually do the pyot, so turn around and make massive interest rate cuts to stabilize and protect its own economy?
If they believe they will, if they have helped China over this cliff, if China has reached a point of no return where they can no longer absorb the collapse of their real estate market on their own, then if this sounding giant now If it capsized, then the Americans might already be in the same situation without us. According to the mainstream media, Americans should immediately lower interest rates as quickly as possible to stabilize their own economy, but this would initially lead to a significant upward movement. in the markets because interest rates will go down again because the central bank supports them.
Only then will it have to be done. It will be clear if this is the case that China is falling and when the giant hits the ground we will feel the waves massively. and it remains to be seen whether this will actually lead to a stabilization of the markets or further irritation. We are in an extremely dangerous situation and we must not forget that in 1929, the American central banks caused the crisis with their aggressive policy of The increase in interest rates triggered economic collapse and threatened a massive drop in interest rates, Markets did not rise sustainably but came under greater pressure because the collapsing economy had taken a hard hit and it will be very, very exciting to see how this develops in the future.
The longer it takes for the US Federal Reserve to lower the official interest rate again, the more dangerous it will be for this crisis to turn into a massive economic crisis. If it lasts for two or three years, we hope not, the faster it progresses. "The best for all of us, but we'll have to be vigilant. That means a little bit of what you're saying, that the next year or two will probably go sideways at most anyway and then we'll have to be careful not to fall back into the next big crisis, that's what I just described, is what it looks like right now, what is the current direction and currently that's what we have to face and wait for, but it can happen anytime tomorrow today Give a new report in the evening we saw it suddenly the Chinese say oh wait a minute we will change something with the lockdowns coming yesterday we arrived massive support measures for the Chinese real estate market we have no idea what can It may happen that suddenly there is a new president in China because something crazy has happened internally, Putin can suddenly be affected and suddenly we have a new situation in Ukraine, the central bank can make a new decision, so no one can bereally sure what will happen.
What will happen in the next few months I can only say this for myself based on the expectations I have, what is happening at this moment is what I feared years ago or what I hoped to see how it will develop that I am currently implementing this, from this I deduce how they could things going, but with the humility to say that at no time will there come any new decision that will make us think again, a slightly different perspective, the euro has also lost enormously and is practically at par The dollar has moved, inflation makes money worth less and less, it has also increased the danger that at some point the euro will slip out of our hands, I fear this will also apply to both currencies At the moment we are only looking at the euro in relation to the US dollar, if it is US or of course it is on the massive bullish path due to the US slope of the ten, which may last a little longer, but it can be the case at any time. for the US Federal Reserve to say that enough is enough, that we have to massively reduce interest rates again and we have to protect the economy.
If we achieve our goal with China, the dollar would initially come under enormous pressure and give up these benefits, but I think you have to see that, generally, in the phase we are in now, our mountains of debt will cause all currencies will have problems in the future. I am afraid that the moment the US Federal Reserve lowers its interest rates, we will not enter a calm situation. phase of prosperity but rather accelerated inflation, then let's assume we still have inflation of around 10%. and now interest rates would begin to fall, what would happen to inflation? So I think we have to be prepared for the fact that currencies around the world, existing currencies, will experience massive devaluation in the coming years, at least compared to each other in terms of purchasing power.
Maybe one is ahead of the other, I once described it with an image like this: when two jump out of the plane, one is in front, sometimes the other is in front, "But for both of them the ground is closing in very quickly. Central banks they are also preparing digital currencies. Before the digital euro and the digital dollar, these are already preparations if at some point the money we have now were to collapse. That is my also a speculative assessment, so it is not something I can say that it will definitely be received or is it my expectation if that happens.
If you ask me, I will answer you like this. Yes, my expectation is that as a result of this crisis, the previous finances, the previous money or the previous monetary systems will no longer be the same, so that a possible digital currency will replace the previous systems, with any turbulence and impassibility. That would certainly be a good topic of discussion in the evening and I would be the least competent person to imagine it, but they asked the money experts, the experts in central banks, but here you can surely imagine that now we are also massive in terms of currencies, international currencies.
The shift towards a digital currency can also have completely different mechanisms of action because we also have to keep one thing in mind: we come from a world that has been geared toward ever-increasing growth for many, many decades more more more consume more consume faster sales speed buy throw replace replace make a living off our economy, I think if we think about it for a moment, no politician has said the affirmation of more prosperity for all in recent years; It is about saving, recovering, slowing down, we are saving the planet, less consumption. , less sales, you don't have to own everything that with others I retain less long distance trips less fuel consumption less new cars and so on, that means that we are obviously changing in our society from an economy that is based on more more to a economy that wants to be a circular economy without physical growth.
On the contrary, maybe in the first phase you would even want a contraction to save the planet, save CO2 and save all these resources, etc. etc., and in society this is also being consolidated. So if we think about this world in an economy that is no longer designed for maximum growth, we currently have a monetary system that is designed for more and more growth, more and more new, inflationary monetary debt. "In a circular economy or in an economy that even for a certain period of time should cause a contraction to achieve a recovery. I don't need an inflationary monetary system.
On the contrary, I even need an inflationary monetary system. deflationary monetary system. In fact, you have to think about it. Bitcoin is a deflationary monetary system that is limited in its mass and in such a new system, Bitcoin would actually be very exciting, maybe future digital state currencies will also use such mechanisms, but as I said, we are very, very far away with a lot of speculation and, in any case, none of that certainly awaits us in the next 12 months, but if you ask a question like that, I have to answer it with a bit of perspective.
Yes, now let's look at different asset classes and how you already mentioned Bitcoin, maybe let's start right away. I remember something in the last few years. Since we are not fans of Bitcoin, it has changed a little bit. because this vision has become very clear to me in the last two or three years. My initial argument about Bitcoin was always that it can't work at all. Insanity is completely impossible in our economic system with an inflationary monetary system that is necessary to make this type of economy possible at all. The deflationary test cannot work at all.
Yes, that was the reason why people moved away from the gold standard because it was not inflatable enough and now suddenly homage would be paid not only to the gold standard but also the other way around, a deflationary monetary system, namely Bitcoin. That doesn't make any sense, but it does make sense if you say, wait a minute, it's not this Bitcoin that's wrong, but we have to change our economic system to a deflationary one. economic system by consuming less than Bitcoin suddenly becomes very comfortable as a prototype, for example, but I certainly cannot imagine the other way around, I would be surprised if there was a more or less anonymous currency in which more or less uncontrolled consumption and transfers could be made.
Those who determine money and power in the world would accept it, but I believe that in the end there will be digital currencies that very well will be under state control. It remains to be decided what role Bitcoin and similar currencies will play in this system. "It looks, I think it can be done, so I'm not there to give an answer as to where the journey is going. Until then, cryptocurrencies will remain what they were before." , pure objects of speculation. They are hardly If ever used economically, you risk cryptocurrencies going up, you risk cryptocurrencies going down or even have special moves if things really work out like last time, but I would advise against seeing the cryptocurrency as a serious investment right now, it can still be fun and gaming You can make a lot of money from it, you can gamble very well, you can also lose on the farm, so in this department you can do it, it is legit in the long term, who You know, many have celebrated it a lot. great success with just a few euros or €100 bought and then the thing went to 30 40 50 60,000 so of course you can win a lot of money like with a lottery ticket, but you can also lose , that is why they are used as speculative. object and you can definitely participate in it, but you have to seriously calculate or the trip to the next weeks, months or even days is almost impossible.
Let's take a look at the shares. Are stocks still one of the most important investments? What do you think of the stock market? I have exactly the same opinion as I have already said: we still have a very long period of pain to go down, but no one can say where the end is. In technology, more than 30 percent have already been lost, in some cases even much more than 50-70 percent and now I have stocks for which a year ago maximum prices were disputed, suddenly I buy them at half price and , as an investor, for me there is nothing better than an accident because when should I buy low when I am in an accident and?
Usually among the population it is usually like this, if there is a case of beer somewhere for half the price, then people stand in line, if there is a large company for half then the price is as if there is no water of knowledge, then everything is too dangerous, so, on the contrary, you should do it. Use falling prices to buy, if now is the time to go all-in, to say it won't drop any further. I'll buy it all, I wouldn't necessarily sign that, but then no one knows where the bottom is, you could think of a smart strategy.
Say, wait a minute, big companies that I've wanted for a long time and they won. I will not go bankrupt, so I will start now after 30 or 50% price losses and buy this stock for 10-20% of my invested money if it continues to fall. Thank you very much, then I will be happy to buy others. 20 25 or 30 percent and so on. I swing down the deeper I go the more I invest. I get a great average price sometime. This creepy thing will end. The question does not arise. At some point the market will go down again. and then with what I bought cheap, ideally only very low when I'm already fully invested, but if it shoots up surprisingly beforehand then at least I already have something and I don't mind not having it.
Everything in it, but I'm happy with what I invested. I think it's a very interesting strategy if you don't want to depend on maximum market time to implement it, load something regularly and still keep your powder dry. In case it happens, many people also have ETFs and savings plans, ETFs and funds and have savings plans, you just have to keep using them to keep using this cost averaging effect. Definitely with savings plans I get the question, aren't they exactly based on the fact that you always buy at any time and the deeper you go, the more you buy what I just described for individual investors who say I'm making a great investment now. here and there and there at different stages, which is nothing other than what I do with a monthly savings plan and you should definitely continue with that, so on the contrary, the lower the better it is because for the same €100 that I save per month I get many more shares than I did a year ago, so you should be happy about that, especially if you are still young, you still have a lot of time ahead of you.
The older you get, the more problematic it is, because you have to do it. so to speak, the crisis of 1929 took more than 30 years until the original highs were reached again and the Japanese also suffered their drop of 88.8 which has not been updated to date, but that is why buying cheap is not a bad story. The great fortunes that dominate the world today were generally founded during these crisis phases because investors with little money bravely entered at low prices and then rose. They have made fortunes and this opportunity is now available again, so despite everything, pity and I Describe the crisis-like development in great detail and very clearly, you can see, my God, that is really bad, it is a bad crisis, I say on the one hand.
On the other hand, this is the biggest opportunity we will probably have. in decades and prepare for it and say if that really happens then I also want to benefit from it but if I only have the pain then I also want the gains. You should also use it, but you have to think about it beforehand: How do I want to act strategically in this market, wherever you can to get out of this crisis, no matter how long it lasts, if it passes quickly, it would be better to save, but it was not a mistake to keep your money. together and then invest this money in productive investments when prices fall, more and more.
And everyone has to find their own time, but like I said, if you don't want to go too far out of the window, do it in batches. , but now keep your money together, don't buy a new car, don't buy the new things that are nice to have, buy every euro I have now go out for nonsense that I lack to buy cheap Scrooge was also known for having gold coins In your money deposit, what do you think of precious metals? That is also popular now. A good portfolio on a balance sheet is also the case here, so I would not recommend anyone to invest in precious metals.
On the contrary, I would advise against investing everything in precious metals. This is certainly not advisable. , but to a large extent it is a good distribution of assets. Gold and silver are also usually included and each person has to decide for themselves what they want to add and here I also don't care what that ounce costs in euros or dollars, but in the end, what interests me is that an ounce is an ounce and at least in the past I got decent purchasing power and it was relatively stable and I think it will continue to be that way for years to come.
Are bonuses interesting? or is it basically because interest rates and inflation should be neglected,yes, it's natural, little by little it becomes more attractive when I get a 4% American government bond. By the way, that's also a big danger for stocks if I get four and a half percent on 10-year and five-year U.S. government bonds, maybe five percent soon, and on U.S. corporate stocks, it's possible that also earn only four and a half five percent free cash flow yield over the next five years. years. So the question is why should I take the risk? Why should I, as an investor, take the risk of buying highly volatile and dangerous stocks and not have more corporate income there?
As if you were going to buy a safe bond from the US government, So if there is any doubt, interest rates will rise, the more pressure US stocks have to suffer, the more pressure prices will have to suffer for the company's performance still make sense as a comparative investment, so this is a big danger for stocks, but in fact bonds will come back. It's more interesting if you say, man, I get 4% on corporate bonds, maybe even two percent more on stable companies, but it has to be said that I don't currently meet the requirement of at least taking out inflation because inflation continues being higher than interest rates.
I still have a negative real return. I can only hope that inflation goes down again soon. Then I could have bought a 10-year bond. with four four and a half five percent and inflation will return to 2%. Man, that's cool, then it'll go up too. Prices are back up and I have my profits and I have a great return, but that means inflation will come back quickly. However, I fear that inflation will remain high and if in doubt it will even accelerate significantly as we have discussed before and this could mean that bonds are still not a good deal if we draw a conclusion from everything we have discussed with the situation. economy and asset classes, how could you set up your portfolio right now?
How could you combine them well? So I would say it again, so I would go for tangible assets, I would definitely avoid monetary assets at this time again. So at least as a long or medium term investment of cash in the account, you can say yes, I'll wait until it's cheap, I'll wait a few more months. Banks won't do it now, perhaps at a later date. I'll have problems there too, but not in a serious way now, I'm excited. I'll wait until it's cheap and then buy. I currently have 89.10% inflation, maybe even a year, but if I buy stocks or make any investments and they lose value, yes, then I have 10% inflation plus my price losses, that just doesn't improve them, so that I have to wait for the right moment for things to fall and fall right now and I have to say that too, it depends on each individual what their assessment is, maybe they will say no, I don't see it that bad, I have an idea completely different, they have to create a completely different portfolio than someone who says Yes, I also want to be sure, I'm afraid that will come from inflation.
I'll wait a little longer and then buy again when it's cheap. I think we will see a geyser effect, so first of all a sharp drop in prices, which we have already seen so far, and then also a very sharp rise in asset classes and rising inflation and then the moment can become very difficult if in doubt because then we could have 7% in one day like we did I just saw it on Friday Thursday Friday or maybe 25-30% in two days yes and then you're there and you say yes now I should buy no I'd rather Don't do it, so gradually down.
Buying tangible assets is certainly not the most important thing not to do. Whoever divides it for himself, I have to decide for himself, as I said, stocks are definitely the right decision, but here in Pay attention to the quality, the technological situation where everyone wins and if not, I still have my return of joy. So someone who had no idea and didn't enjoy whiskey shouldn't collect whiskey bottles, someone who has no idea about art or doesn't enjoy it and if I just leave things somewhere in the garage or in the attic or whatever I want What they do so that at some point they can bring in money, they should also leave it that way, it should really be done by people who enjoy things and therefore know how to deal with them.
It's not something that you just blind yourself to and you have to know a little bit about what you're doing and it's interesting to them, but that's why we rarely talk about it because it's actually a niche area, absolutely a nice niche, but it we have today. Yes, all other topics are also covered, so we can briefly talk about the niche as well. Thanks to Dirk Mü

ller

Mister DAX from cashkurs.com, I thank you and I wish you all the best Dirk, thank you also Manu and thank you. Dear viewers, for your interest in watching.
Stay healthy and happy and we'll see you next time.

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