Former national security adviser backs general's warning on possible war with China

Alright, the Pentagon is distancing itself right now from a memo from a US Air Force

general

warning

of a

possible

war with China in the next two years; in fact, he predicts so, according to a statement from the Pentagon press secretary. The appointment remains to work alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific. Let's now bring in General H.R McMaster to give us his analysis of what's happening. Here he is a CBS News foreign policy and

national

security

contributor and author of Battlegrounds. the fight to defend the free world, he also served as

former

President Trump's

national

security

advisor, H.R McMaster, welcome back to CBS News, it's great to have you here, what do you think of the Pentagon's prediction and response to this war with China within the next two years?

Well, good morning everyone, good morning, Emory, it's a pleasure to be with you. Hey, this is exactly what General Minnehan should do. He is the head of the air mobility command and his job is to be ready to fight tomorrow. go to war or not, but he has to tell his command to prepare, what he said is: hey, I have a feeling that we are in a period of increasing danger and I think he is right about that, you know, he has spoken Regarding the Taiwanese elections in 2024, if the Chinese Communist Party does not see the result it wants in Taiwan, then I think the chances increase if China continues to face the internal difficulties it has had.

Economically, financially, real estate does that. An attack on Taiwan is more likely, I think maybe he does it in terms of his desire to stoke nationalism and take people's minds off internal problems, but the most important thing is that Errol, I mean, hey, shisha pinga said that he's going to do it, you know, and a lot of In his speeches he seems to be preparing the Chinese people for war and, of course, it's the job of our military to be prepared and, you know, I think there's a trend in the Pentagon these days and in Washington to think that we can have this ingenious form of deterrence right.

You know how hard power matters, I mean, we learned that in Russia we threatened every sanction we had. You know, a big diplomatic campaign was going to prevent war in Ukraine and it didn't work, so our defense department has to be ready. make their ability to fight and win the top priority because that's what deterrence does is convince the People's Liberation Army in this case that they cannot achieve their objectives in Taiwan through the use of force, so what could be a war with China? It looks good, Henry, you know, we've already seen, you know, something below the threshold of what could provoke a military response aggression from China, so they're trying everything they're trying with economic Coors and trying to build economic and financial dependencies in Taiwan. a sustained information campaign War against Taiwan and you've seen the threats of direct military action with multiple overflights and violations of Taiwanese waters and then of course remember after Speaker Pelosi's visit really something that soft. blockade that they almost implemented with those massive military exercises, so I think what you could see in a scenario that could lead to conflict is more of those increasing measures to coerce Taiwan, you know, after maybe the 2024 elections and then, of course, from China.

They become much more aggressive elsewhere as well. I mean, we have to remember that they are trying to affect the largest land grab, so to speak, in history in the South China Sea to try to take over the ocean or a portion of the ocean through which a third of the world's surface trade flows, they have been beating Indian soldiers to death on the Himalayan border, they have been threatening South Korea and Japan as well, so I think General Minahan was right and I wish more people in the Pentagon They will help you get ready. To fight and win the number one priority, we hear a lot about other priorities, uh, but hey, I think we have to remember what the military is for, yes, the South China Sea dispute itself has always been a

possible

all-out conflict of Flashpoint and not to mention the accusations of how the Chinese are treating millions of Uygha, I mean, when you talk only about human rights, so you know how to choose your topic, but China owns a massive portion of the American debt, I mean, both nations are intertwined financially, what would be the motivation?

I mean, I guess that's the difficulty of diplomacy, it only goes as far as you want to avoid war, but that doesn't complicate any potential conflict between the two nations that could effectively defeat each other, you know, for Xi Jinping, I don't think so. Daryl does it I think I mean, of course, it doesn't make sense from our perspective, we look at it and think, okay, how could it be in Japan's interest to have a war? I mean, it depends on us financially. trying to meet these really high growth targets and you're not meeting those growth targets, but if you look at the series of decisions you've made, how about the zero greed policy that was a shot in the foot?

How about cracking down on your tech sector and the negative economic implications that that has had, so I think the time has come to recognize that this is a party driven by ideology and by emotion, especially the fear of losing the exclusive control of the party over power and associated with that is this aspiration, this drive. to restore China to greatness, this is the division for National Rejuvenation and of course Taiwan fits perfectly into that impulse and that is why it is such a dangerous flash point. I think it was also very clear from General Minahan's memo that he understands. that deterrence is a simple equation, right, it's capability multiplied by the enemy's assessment of your capability multiplied by your will and he mentioned not just the Taiwanese election in 24, you know, but the American election and the degree to which you know the polarization of In the United States, a perception of the fact that democracies are weak may influence Putin's calculus, but you know, I'll tell you, Earl, everything that I think she should do, it would be wrong if she did that.

I mean, you know our democracies look a little messy, you know we are, we are ugly, those authoritarians. The regimes look strong from the outside, but in reality they are quite fragile and our democracies are much more resilient than these authoritarian regimes give us credit for because they taught us that obviously playing the long game means an unprecedented third term, that's right. I mean, I'm not going to predict it, but I don't know that the third one will be the last one for him. It certainly seems like he's preparing to be there for the long haul, but you know General Taiwan is an island.

We have provided a huge amount of military aid to Ukraine since the war began. You can't do that in Taiwan. You cannot provide military support after there is a blockade. You won't be able to get it. Are we in any position? at this point engage in any kind of military action if Taiwan becomes a Flashpoint yeah we're Emory we have a wide range of capabilities so you'll typically hear people really pay close attention, as they should, to what's called Chinese anti-access. area denial capabilities this is staggered and layered air defense it is its long-range missile systems it is its drone capabilities but we have a variety of capabilities the problem is that China has a positional advantage China is challenging us in the confines of the American power and and that's why it's so important that a command like General Minahan, the

general

who warned about this air mobility command, be ready to project power there, but I will tell you that they will take over Taiwan if that's what China want to do. that wouldn't be easy, I mean, the island is the size of Maryland, you know, it's about 150 miles they have to cross, very difficult to sustain and offensive, with an amphibious operation like that, the seas are stormy, it's about two or three.

I know very good landing areas on the west coast of Taiwan, so I hope the People's Liberation Army doesn't underestimate them, you know, maybe they're like Russia underestimated the difficulty of trying to subsume all of Ukraine with its brutal invasion in February . 24th of last year General H.R McMaster it is always a pleasure to speak with you, thank you sir and Marie. I have one last thing, um, I'm not a fan of egos, but there you have it, of course, one more reason to like it, thanks General, thanks Rachel.