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Tory polling in free fall as ratings spiral

Apr 19, 2024
You were talking about drinking whiskey and I think the conservative strategists might have wanted a strong whiskey when they saw the ipsos polls today, so ipsos is one of the most established pollsters in the country and they found that today the conservatives fell to 19.% yes , below the 20 point mark, below 20, but fundamentally the lowest they have recorded in 45 years of surveys, so it really is a bomb. The Poles from uh IP actually had the Labor vote slightly down as well, so this was Labor is widening its lead, but obviously they are still way ahead. It was the conservatives fighting and a jump again in that reform vote.
tory polling in free fall as ratings spiral
It's a surprising moment. Isn't there something in the data that tells us precisely why they have passed if we call 20% the floor, they have passed through the floor, well, one of the really interesting things that you see is if you look at those under 35, now we know you know that conservatives traditionally don't do so well with young people. but they have always had a bit of a base in this survey, they are in the 7% of those under 35 and of course that will worry the conservatives not only for this election but also for future elections because they need that group to move forward . uh, voting slightly better news from Yugov today.
tory polling in free fall as ratings spiral

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tory polling in free fall as ratings spiral...

They were back above the 20 point mark with Yugov at 21%, so it wasn't all bad news, but I think just because the ipsos poll has gone on for so long, I think that's what will worry people and it was interesting that Sonak's personal

ratings

also took another hit now that he is now the prime minister of the most unpopular party they have ever recorded on par with John Major minus 59. I want to come back to that because that's another pretty powerful one. I found, but on the age question, I saw some poll numbers that discuss the crossover point where you are most likely to be A or depending on your age and now up to 70, you are most likely to be Ator after age. 70 years old and at the time of Boris Johnson's election he was 39, yes, just under 40, so this was an analysis by JL Partners that found that yes, I mean, it's not just the retirement age at which you start voting conservative, now it's actually beyond that and again. you know that raises questions for the future because not only are you losing, you know the very young are losing all the people of working age, it's quite useful to explain compliance with the triple lock when it comes to the pension commitment and what What's up with rishy sunak?
tory polling in free fall as ratings spiral
I refer to those numbers for your popularity rating. Again, it's the lowest we can see, it's down there, with anything we've ever seen before, with confidence, um underneath, Boris Johnson, unlike the ones that, of course, Elizabeth, this confidence gave us. the dire budget they gave bis Johnson was the party gate and all sorts of other problems, but rishy sunak, what did he do to win that? I think what happens with rishy sunak, when you talk to people in focus groups, it's been a kind of constant erosion. We had higher hopes for him when he arrived, people would say we're worried he's too rich to get it, but he's pretty competent, isn't he?
tory polling in free fall as ratings spiral
And they really liked him as Chancellor and I think as time has gone on and he hasn't been seen to control his party to change the economy quickly enough, he's changed not just because he's out of touch with more people who say oh, it's a bit invisible, isn't it?, it's a bit weak, it hasn't changed things. and so I think that's what damaged it, unlike the other two, it's not a big event, just a constant erosion of faith in the rishy sunna. Well, let's talk about the s

tory

that has been going well between one or two other dominants this week, the s

tory

of the so-called LES. conduct of individual MPs, the Conservative party is going all out after Angela Raina over her tax affairs and previous housing deals.
Today we have the uh story of the parliamentarian who is well accused of various types of misconduct, any sign of how he is playing that. The public saw a UAV survey that said that when it came to Angela Raina, only about 25 people were aware, yes, 25% were following the story closely and I think you know, separate it with these Le corruption, whatever you want. call them type stories is that the public has become desensitized to them there is a bit of a feeling that it is a kind of smallpox for all its inhabitants well, of course, they have their hand on their tail, we did a focus group this week and they Well , you know the two people at the top do it, you know they did it during lockdown, so why wouldn't everyone else do it too?
One thing that really stood out to me, especially in this year's focus groups, is how cynical people are about politics. Yes, it's always cynical in general, but I think in particular at the moment there's a real sense that they don't believe that people are in public service for the right reasons. Yeah, so maybe it's the kind of, you know, what I know, disappointment or indignation. in one particular scandal outweighs the fact that no one rates anyone in politics, which is also a pretty depressing and depressing thought, and Michael Heslin, who I was speaking to while driving here recently, insisted that these things it doesn't matter, but it may not have much of a direct effect on opinion.
PS: The fortunes of the party, but it does have an effect in a broader sense, doesn't it? Because a story that is published and published displaces other stories that might be less useful to a particular party, yes absolutely, you know that and I think one of the challenges for the Labor party with the Raina story is that you can question the faith of the people who are carrying out the attacks and knowing that you can say you know it's pretty much a minor thing is the fact that it prevents them from spreading their message, which I think is the most damaging thing.
Richy Sonnak and the conservatives wanted to talk about inflation today and instead they're talking about the Mark Meny thing, you know? It seems that every time the government receives good news, it is drowned out by something happening with one of its parliamentarians. Luke, there have been some polls about who people think a particular party represents Bash. Let's explain it, yeah, so uh. We did some polls looking at a number of different groups in society, from the working class, retired students to the rich, and asked whether workers or conservatives represent them better and what was really interesting was that almost all labor groups were ahead in the inclusion of pensioners.
Actually, which is quite significant given that Bo and Tor only lead among the rich and middle class. In that, again, I think it's a reflection of his rating in the polls. The most interesting thing is that we ask what areas of the country the parties are in. uh, represent and what was really interesting is that you know, given that the Conservatives have been so strong in their anti-London rhetoric that they've even used it as a campaign technique in other places, London was one of the few regions that People said they were better represented by the Conservatives, more so than Labour, they felt the Conservatives represented London and the South and Labor represented the North Midlands and the Nations, yes, and what about the issues the people think about? people today in the Daily Mail.
I think it sprinkles the story that, uh, that. Labor is blunt about everything, including Brexit, and then immediately points out that people don't want a Labor government. It's hard to argue that people don't want a laboratory government when they're 21 and 22 points ahead, but I think we're making a mistake, we're expressing a lack of ardent enthusiasm, yes, and the interesting thing that goes back to those leader

ratings

is which you know are pretty terrible for Rishi Sunak, but actually you look at Kia Starma and his approval is underwater. -31 about the same level that Ed Millerand and Michael Howard were when they were opposition leaders, so it still seems like the mood in the country is that it's time for change, it's time to give workers a chance, but not with much enthusiasm.

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