This Winter Is Going To be VERY Different…Sep 18, 2023
goingto be really interesting because there are major changes in weather patterns happening right now around the world and these changes will directly affect our
winterhere in the US. Snow storms are hitting the Arctic and even the severe weather is on the way. table, but the interesting part is where these things are
goingto happen in
thisvideo. I'm going to tell you all about that and what you can expect in your own backyard, so you've probably heard about
thisalready, but El Niño is rising. Here in the Pacific Ocean, this simply means that the waters are getting much warmer than usual, and since it is such a large body of water, its temperature fluctuations have a major impact on the global climate over the last three winters we have been through. in La Niña, which is when the Pacific waters are actually colder than usual, so as we approach our first El Niño in quite some time, we expect big changes during a typical El Niño winter, we generally see an extended jet stream in the Pacific and This brings many storms south.
We also tend to see the polar jet stream passing through the Great Lakes, allowing much warmer than average air to build up beneath it in western Canada and the northern US, at the same time as things get warmer. Much wetter and a little bit colder here in the south thanks to all the storms and between all those areas we generally end up a little drier than normal, but things fluctuate a lot here, but what I just showed you was a typical El Niño. and what we are about to experience is anything but a typical El Niño.
Here is where we are now with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and here are all the specific places we monitor when determining the intensity of an El Niño. We can see
veryclearly that we are warmer than average across the board and you can also see here the long history of these waters being colder than average, but more recently things have plateaued and if the warming were to stop here only We'd be looking at One Week to Moderate El Nino for this winter, which would make a big difference in the overall US forecast, but will the warming stop here?
Well, let's take a look at some forecasting models. Here is the latest projection of the CFS model, as you can see. Within a few weeks we expect these waters to begin to warm significantly once again and around October we will likely be in at least a moderate to strong El Niño, so what exactly is the impact here in the US when there is a strong El Niño versus a weak El Niño in the winter. As far as temperatures go, with a weak El Niño, we would expect to see much colder than average temperatures across much of the east coast due to that polar jet heading south, but with a stronger El Niño, things change completely, we get colder in the west and a little warmer in the east, but even reducing it that much doesn't tell the whole story, it sure looks like we're going to have a moderate to strong El Niño. and we're going to have a lot of historical data to back up what that really means for us, but there's no historical data for the next big part of the equation that we have to solve right now: the Atlantic Ocean is warmer than it's ever happened before and Not only will that have implications this hurricane season, but these warm waters have the ability to fuel all storms, even snow storms.
Especially east of the Mississippi River, most of our largest storms depend on warm, moist air. of the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic to survive and the warmer and wetter they are, the bigger the storms can be if we find ourselves in a situation this winter where we have plenty of cold air and sea surface temperatures are still as high like the ones we are going to have. a
veryactive stretch of big snow storms, but again, we've never seen an El Nino winter where the Atlantic was this warm, so we have nothing to compare it to now, we're still pretty far from winter and there are Not much can be predicted at this point, but I have a very early, preliminary outlook for winter for you.
First, overall, I think temperatures will follow a pattern consistent with the strong El Niño of the past. It's going to be much warmer than usual in western Canada and much of that heat will descend into the central US and south due to the amplified storm track, things are very likely to be a little colder than usual and, despite the record warm sea. surface temperatures in the Atlantic. I think a lot of those southern storms will travel parallel to the east coast and that will bring much colder air on a more regular basis to the eastern states and everyone else in between can expect mostly average or typical seasonal temperature swings in the swings this winter, that's a pretty useful forecast, but I have an even bolder prediction for you right now based on everything we've learned today.
I think I have an idea where our next big blizzard dad is going to be what in the world is a big blizzard dad you ask well almost every year somewhere in the US there is a storm of snow that is quite memorable to the people it affects, you've probably heard people talk about this year's blizzard. or that year or have you heard someone say I remember the old days during the Big Blizzard of 1980, whatever those types of storms are that I refer to as Big Daddy Blizzards. I think there's a good chance we'll have one. this year and I have a map that shows where it is most likely to happen first here is the general two percent probability area it is big because the probability is small now here is the fun thing that represents the dark blue where I think we have a five percent percent chance of seeing a big snow storm this winter the pink will represent a 10 chance and the red will actually be a 15 chance.
I think at some point this winter there will be a large area of cold air in place as one of those El Nino enhanced southern storms start moving north when that happens someone is going to get a lot of snow now of course this is a very early prediction and is mostly just for fun but go ahead and hold me accountable Yes I want to come back to this video in March or April 2024 and let me know how it went in the comments. I would love that the reason I have even a shred of confidence here is because El Niño winters and Big Daddy snowstorms are no strangers.
You probably remember the January 2016 blizzard, which dumped up to three feet of snow at the center of the Earth and caused more than $500 million in damage. That storm occurred during the 2014-2016 El Niño event, considered one of the strongest El Niño events. children in recorded history, another strong El Niño occurred in 1997 and 1998 and there were plenty of large winter storms during this period, including the North American ice storm of January 1998, which actually left 4 million people without power and caused seven billion dollars in damage and the list really goes on and on and it's also important to note that most of these El Niño winters were also quite active in terms of severe weather due to the increased storm track in the south and the great changes in temperature.
Unfortunately, severe weather outbreaks are something we're certainly going to have to deal with this winter, so whether you're facing a big snowstorm or a big nasty thunderstorm this winter, something I think you're going to need is a good radar app, just look at me, my life revolves around the weather. It's obviously a big part of my life and you know how I choose to monitor the weather on my phone most of the time via the Omega radar app. I use it when I'm chasing storms. I use it when I'm just trying to do it. look what's in that dark cloud over there.
I even use it when I guide millions of people through some of the worst storms to ever hit the US and you can have the same thing on your phone for less than the price of a Big Comida Mac, what can I do for you today ? Can I get the most capable weather app in the world? Thousands of you have already downloaded this app and love it, but there are thousands more who haven't gotten this tool yet and I'm not going to shut up until all of you do. This is a potentially life-saving product and I truly believe it is better than the alternatives if you are even slightly interested in watching the radar for severe weather warnings or watching the satellite or watching live streams of Storm Chaser or anything else , click the link in the description right now to download Omega Radar for iOS or Android.
I promise you, you won't regret it and you won't regret it either. subscribe to this channel which you should do right now and see you in the next one, goodbye that
If you have any copyright issue, please Contact