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The 'Soon" Fallacy | In Depth

Feb 27, 2020
company in a big factory to build cars but it seems like it sounds super familiar Miller it's like there's another guy who bet his whole company on a big like big factory called the Giga Factory that's right oh it's Elon Musk. if you're basically, you just told the Elon Musk story, except in the past you're like okay thanks to that guy we're going to be okay he's like friend he's dead he's not going to be here to help you and it's like his ghost was I'm going to visit you, it would be like you switch to electric cars.
the soon fallacy in depth
The word battery didn't come up once during this conversation, and yet we're talking about trucks and cars that need batteries. He throws the word interrupt as if he could. it means something well and everything that someone invented one does not understand that this trip is an interruption, right? You threw it away no, that's not just garbage, no, no, taxis, that's the interruption, I don't know. I'm going to disrupt the taxi market of Of course, I mean Henry Ford back in the day put humans on the line, drove them all crazy with a job, a hundred thousand workers in one place and that was unheard of, exactly what Jim Hackett was talking about, right, I mean, no one had ever heard of this way of building before.
the soon fallacy in depth

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the soon fallacy in depth...

It was great, you know, an innovative idea. give each person a very specific job they can make it super fast super good and then the car is built super fast it's good for efficiency right oh well in general I don't know oh right that's fine but in terms of making cars it's a very way efficient to do it comes Elon Musk with this idea of ​​a machine that will build a machine for eventually a dreadknot alien factory that will be fully automated now that it's not in place yet but all the too big cars laughed at him. manufacturers because Oh house, how many models did you build through an alien battleship?
the soon fallacy in depth
But he's trying the same innovation that Henry Ford tried for. Ilan has patents growing out of his ears. He has patents that we have told you about. giant machine that will go crazy and make a car frame look good all you know 70 parts reduced to one this is innovation and Elon has said before that he releases all his patents to the auto industry that is not a hundred percent true it is It's ough patents to do well basically a proper Model S that no other company has done yet, so apparently no one has taken up that offer, but those patents are there like they want to make an electric car that's sweet they could do. exactly, but autonomy and a lot of the different manufacturing processes that are still Tesla patents that they're not even using knowing that Tesla has given them, they're partnering with companies that don't have a clue and they're trying to figure it out as zero and not get it done and i think this is fun Hackett keeps going back to how fast they can produce a ford f-150 like there's a factory they own that in 53 seconds can start with a block of steel and come out the other end in 53 Seconds later a Ford f-150 would come along they don't have such a factory what it's saying is if you take all of our factories around the world and you count the number of cars that go out every day the average is one truck every 53 seconds. true that's because they have so many factories because they're a giant car manufacturer that's been around for over a hundred years true but being a larger size doesn't mean you have a huge advantage when you need to change exactly um because that means all those factories need to change and you know it's ok if you want to add a new cup holder ok we plan for that and next year we'll have a new cup holder or it's going to be a little bit bigger touch screen type of cup holder but if you want to switch to a full technology new like electric cars you won't be able to do it like that it's a whole different ballgame right when you're turning off millions of cars a year and then you have to put batteries in those cars that you don't have and can't make so how many cars per second are you going to take out?
the soon fallacy in depth
I could imagine the CEO of Kodak back in the day being like we make a roll of film every second like don't worry we'll be here forever r digital cameras where was the last time you bought film? when was the last time you saw a movie canister? throw away all the movies i watched for four decades they said shot on kodak film at the end on the right and they all said there will never be a day you see a movie that isn't shot on film there's no way you can make that look like this. They even called it a movie, right?
They were just saying Oh it can't fail always be a film camera now maybe you'll switch to digital eventually but you'll always shoot it on Kodak film mm-hmm and it just ain't true any magic the only innovation Ford has right now it's this little start up company they just invested in called Vivian have you heard of them? Yeah, and that wasn't mentioned in the Hackett thing at all. so smart at ford because we keep our eyes open for young startups with no brains and invest our money in them made it look like ford had made this ford f-150 all for their lone right they bought rivia and then seconds later they started to filming that marketing we saw with the land I mean it was literally like I said before it had to have been days after they invested the money in Rivia yeah yeah I mean or as fast as they could because it's not like they were talking about nothing on that ford f-150 it's not like they're like oh and the seats are like this and the screen is like this and this everything to do with the interior or the exterior was just that it has an electric powertrain You also notice that there is no mention of the fact that electricity is good for the environment and how good it is for the global warming crisis because we are helping in that sense, do you know why they can't say that?
I know they would maybe be neutral in terms of you know the vehicles they were putting out right? It's so weird for them to make a product where they can't even talk about the most important parts of that product, right? I think I should have. He phrased this as a learning experience I should have said something like you know I actually went for a test ride in a model 3 and was actually very impressed and realized you know this and I wouldn't even have to say model 3 I could say I stepped foot in the Rivia and was so blown away I was like wow this is definitely the future of trucking I knew I had to get on this so I said we need to acquire this company because they have the brains and you know what it's a big company we don't know you know just be honest there's the thing that they haven't acquired the company it's not like the company has been wrapped up and it's still its own company right you can't mention because it's going to compete against them st Ill that's the weirdest thing about this you know they didn't even get it right they didn't even buy the company outright they're right there with Amazon and four driven was super smart they have enough money from both os so there's still their own company that's why they're not going to listen to four talk about riffian let's watch the next clip he keeps them up at night Elon Musk well I'd like to make the threat of disruption the bogeyman and can come from anywhere. there's a part of your brain that says, let's rationalize it, it's not as good as it could be, so the railroad isn't really going to disrupt the Pony Express, look at our market share, right?
I go the other way and say the good things the way they do it. we're thinking about their products and it's not just Amazon or Tesla you know we pick more suitable ideas so one of the things we've instituted is that Ford is a thing called curious minds which means like at the table, we will not invite the smartest people. in the world to come in and tell us what they're doing so we can derive from that how we could use that ability the question was does he stay up at night and again he didn't answer the question i was such i mean is a pivot is a misdirection and you know it's beautiful it's paul he talks politics he should run for office I mean, this is exactly what US politicians do well.
I don't know why I think that because I don't even know what he said, right? um, what is a proper idea? boat language in this is this a new phrase must be a Detroit phrase because you know I'm in the market for high tech jargon and I don't listen to proper ideas and so okay it's Ford the Pony Express or the railroad in that example I think which actually meant Ford was the Pony Express which is not good as just a little history lesson the Pony Express was like you could mail something across the country in the United States and like some guy rode a pony and then I'd pass your letter to some other guy on a pony and he'd ride it, you know, and they'd keep doing that all over the country and then the railroad came in two days, the Pony Express broke up because nobody wanted you to. but I mean I saw him three times and I think he was siding with the Pony Express so what he's saying is that Ford is the Pony Express and they shouldn't look at it as having a huge market share which is true .
I agree. Yes, it's a good point. you've got all this market share that you're leading, but then he says he's just walking away from that right and then he just hints again that they're going to get all these great third-party ideas come and share them with you. freely although for this it is obvious slyly not to listen to these disruptive ideas there are a lot of good ideas floating around the idea of ​​a good CEO is that he or she already knows where the company should go not that they are just going to sit and wait for some bright ideas come along and some of you know we are going to have a curious mind session this afternoon would you like to come listen everyone is invited to the conference room we are going to have a curious mind suffer your notepads with you like yeah wants CEO who is a leader it's like we're doing this and if you're not going to do that you're going to get out of my way because that's what we're doing this is the direction we're headed and you're either in the direction correct or not, we cannot show these sessions of curious minds.
I encourage you to google it, it's very hard to find, but basically think of a TED talk but done in a high school. I know I think they had some pretty awesome people, but it's just no, you're not going to get out of it, you should make serious business decisions. like Thanksgiving and your grandpa tells you something you've known for 10 years, have you ever heard of these things called TED Talks? he will mention Ford Ford was innovative in its day and actually Citroen and Pujo and Toyota visited the Ford factory to find out how it did things and then they copied it because it was a great idea for car manufacturing but what does it mean Hackett? it's that they're not going to look to tesla for inspiration you like these you know how Citroen did it and poopoo joe they're just going to ignore that upstart because I don't know what the hell they're doing there that they can barely do whatever car they said to get out there and to be like we're making this electric ford without mentioning when they're going to make it without mentioning what they know where they're going to make it was where it's going to get the batteries from it says for the next 20 years you know you're going to buy our cars ok and i'm sorry , no you're not going to and you might be saying go this is a wake up call for me welcome thanks so much for joining us I understand if you're confused we have a whole series dedicated to talking about our future of driving tons basically every car on the road will drive itself and hardly anyone will own it it will be like it's just a service but yeah he's capable of just say no that's not what it's going to be the future, will you be buying cars from us now. i think he might know that's not the future, but he can't tell because all his right business model is to make so many cars and make them kind of horrible so he needs to buy one new from time to time. ok ok so much for the service that's the moderate business and also act like they have decades to find the answers oh well you know we'll find something with this Tesla thing don't worry we're going to win in the end and that's the



it's like we'll do it


we'll clean the room don't worry we're going to clean it's like first of all you have to clean pick up your room than just like the world the whole world is dying cause you know you dragged your feet In this, it's so disgusting and crazy, but when I hear VW or Ford say they want to go into V and they want to go into autonomous, I really do. get excited and I did when I first read these articles because this is what Elon wants he wants this transition to happen as soon as possible and so do I.
I don't care, you know I'm not agnostic when it comes to companies like I hope all of these companies are, but then when I pull back the headlines and I hear what they're really saying and I realize they don't have a clue and thatthey're way behind that's when I get really upset because they're just paying lip service to us and if they really got it they'd see it in their financial reports you'd see big investments in batteries big investments is an unprecedented investment in fact shareholders would be saying : oh my god, why are you investing somewhere in batteries? should be saying you need to read dude a storm is coming, change is coming, winds of change are coming, but instead they are partnering with companies that have no clue as to whether they are right or p investing some of money on cruise ships, farm or riffian, you know companies they should work with, but that's just the tip of the iceberg of where they must be right.
I think one of the reasons these CEOs don't get it is because they've never gotten into a Tesla and driven it for more than I'd say, probably ten minutes, and it was probably hiding behind a Ford building somewhere. place and they're at their private test track, so you know Jim Hackett. he got in the car and started it and drove it around for a bit and then he got out and he's looking at his employees all he has to say no matter how he thinks my father's piece of shit must be ok let's get back to the business of truck building in the uk even if you were impressed with the acceleration and handling even if you were like oh it's really nice and quiet in here you can't say any of that because you're the CEO of Ford and especially not you can go about what I think is the most important thing especially with Tesla and that is road trips yeah because let's be honest this is groundbreaking technology you need to spend more than 10 minutes with it to understand it actually I would say most people have to spend about a week with it at least driving a lot before you fully appreciate what you're getting and to that point I'd like to read a blog post from one of our viewers re I was actually really touched this is from our friend so she and I said day 100 is here.
I'm in love with my Tesla even more than day one. Is incredible. I'm pretty sure on the 100th day of owning my Honda I was already bored with the car, well adventures are far away. Since last night I planned my four and a half week road trip and here it is, I am beyond excited. This thing that I feel has unfolded over these past 100 days is unfamiliar to me. People call it wanderlust. I call it liberation. essentially all my life i have longed for li living in seclusion even when i was traveling all over the world and was that wild girl planning amazing trips and events nonstop.
I always long to be alone, so every decade when I had a complete mental breakdown, she would disappear into my house. Nobody saw me for months. in the end i stopped answering my phone it would take me a couple of years to figure out how to date and meet people again major depression has been my closest friend and worst enemy since i was a kid now before it seems like tesla me cured. I must emphasize that I have gone through and continue to go through years of counseling. I worked hard to break my mental habits and find a way to grow into myself but I have always sought to be alone, in fact I feel better when I am alone I am never bored never alone I like it but I realized it since I bought my Tesla Never I want to be home I don't know what this is but now I understand why people love to travel the last eight weekends I take to somewhere new and exciting I research places to see and just go sometimes take people with me sometimes go just as long as i drive somewhere i'm happy i mentioned that on my way back from my first trip to portland i started crying i realized this feeling of being trapped i felt all my life this feeling of helplessness of being controlled took another big step Get out of my life this car what Tesla has done has deinstitutionalized decades of trauma I've been working hard to be mentally free but now I'm physically free I go where I want and I don't pay for it my wallet or my mental health.
I just go for as long as I want and arrive like I've been teleported there. Instantly, without a tired body, without a tired mind, my limits of existence have expanded far beyond what I had ever imagined. I'm not familiar with this feeling and all I know how to do is feed it, so I'm going to drive for four and a half weeks most of the time on the highway and just enjoy. cheapest therapy on earth this wa Its extremely powerful for me to read it because its basically exactly what me and Zak went through when Zach got Sparky because you knew we had an electric car two putts around that we drove in the i3 that could go 6070 miles On electric and we didn't want to drive it on gas but once we got Sparky we were able to go 260 miles it was a big difference and we'd just end up in the right places oh we got to Provincetown at the end of the Cape.
God, that doesn't feel right to me, I want to stress, yeah I've lived in Massachusetts my whole life and I never went to Provincetown like that, it really is so liberating, you're like, oh yeah I just want to go there and you. Can you have the supercharger networks to get you there and is it so liberating that you're on autopilot, which means when you get there you're not exhausted? There are some days on our cross-country road trip where we travel 800 miles and you know 16-hour days of driving pretty much non-stop and we'd get to the hotel and we wouldn't be as tired and this is what happens if you're a employee of VW, Ford or GM you need your CEO to do this tell them look this is going to be a major car competitor to you alright so you better know this car put on a costume don't let nobody know you it's you and take a week long road trip in this car then come back and run this company and if you still think this is the way he wants to lead the company by sticking his head in the sand then at least he's had the experience , but I bet you anything if you can get your CEO to do that, it will change direction and I think what really happened with the German companies is that this happened where basically there was this explosion of model 3s in Germany, where only at their headquarters they could only look out the window and say that's a model 3, that's a model 3, that's a model 3, we did it.
I don't think this is going to happen well, but in Detroit it's in Michigan and Michigan doesn't allow people to buy directly from Tesla so it's a huge pain to just buy a Tesla in Michigan so in Detroit and it's Detroit as well, It's an auditor, you won't see a lot of model 3, no, I mean, us. I heard from Bob Lutz, he even wrote an article about it where he ran into a Tesla in a parking lot, he didn't drive it, he just got a good look at it and that was just moving to him just because of the way it was built out of Ice. , I took a good look, but here's a guy who doesn't even work for GM anymore, he can drive a Tesla if he wants to, that's because they're so isolated from the world that they don't even want to experience what we do. we're experiencing yeah that's why when we talk about Tesla with such confidence it's because of experiences like this that we've had that I know only the smallest minority of people have gotten a good look at because we hear about it every week or every week on the show why do you think we share experiences with you in community and mailtime is one of the most important parts of Tesla Time news, we want you to see that everyone who experiences Tesla has the extreme experience just like us and I promise you this if someone writes me and says I just bought a Mazda Zak and I am so excited that I want to tell the community about it.
I'll put it there. Nobody tells me it's true. There is another really important point, although I want a lot of people to write to us and say yes. I think there is a demand problem Zack and Jesse this is what I can't think of another product in this price range that sells itself like a Tesla does yes I mean do you remember some products back in the day like when the iPhone came out it was sold just you walked up showed your friends and said oh what's that I want one of those right here it's the zippo app and you're like wow it's like a real lighter but it ain't real shit we gotta go to meet dad exactly this is basically the same idea it's such an amazing product you don't need an ad for it there are people like me recounting what is going on in their lives and when you hear it if you are a friend of hers by For example, you'd say, oh my gosh, this car got her. do that in her life right that's amazing right I need to review this I need to talk to her about it yeah and I mean that's what it's about here is to talk about this amazing transformation that we have that could have happened So. before, okay, Elon Musk could have sat in a restaurant and with JB Straubel and written some calculations on a napkin, they could have done it 2 or 3 years earlier and we could have had the same cars in almost the same amount of time. okay, so we'd be two or three years into the future like it's just that it's not like some revolutionary technology happens.
They put laptop batteries in a car and it was amazing and it's still amazing and they used a motor that was designed by Nikola Tesla a hundred years ago right this change is going to happen because you're going to go and talk to your friends and your neighbors and your coworkers about the change that is happening around you, you are the one that is going to spread this, it is not going to come from anywhere else, it is going to be grassroots, it is going to come from below, so it is very important that you share these experiences, whether you share this video or share your own experiences with getting people to put cigarette butts in your car seats, do whatever you have to do to tell someone else at least about that because that's how we spread the message thank you very much for joining us this week in each week here in


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