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The Hijack: Europe, Belarus, and the Abduction of Roman Protasevich

Jun 08, 2021
Hello everyone and thank you for joining us in cyberspace this afternoon. I'm Marcy Shore. I'm a professor of history at Yale and a regular visiting professor at the Federici and Schaftenfon Institute in Vienna, which is where I go. to you from tonight, I want to thank you for coming at the last minute and thank all my colleagues and panelists for coming at the last minute. This was a very spontaneous event, as I'm sure everyone who tuned in knew this two days ago. A Ryan Air flight from Athens to Vilnius was spontaneously kidnapped by the Russian BL, forced to land in Minsk and at that time a young 26-year-old journalist and his 23-year-old student girlfriend were kidnapped and arrested.
the hijack europe belarus and the abduction of roman protasevich
Even by the standards of outrageous, unimaginable things happening today it was particularly outrageous and I thought it was important that we have a conversation right away, so I'm very grateful to my colleagues for coming. Leave. to introduce them very briefly so that we can go directly to your comments martin malik is an austrian political scientist uh kind mayor scherkowski is the founder and editor in chief of critical politicians in poland victorious is a professor of philosophy um at vitialgus magnus university in county of lithuania and currently a visiting fellow at the philippines institute and the shopton fund mention francois heisberg is senior advisor for

europe

at the iiss and special advisor at the foundation for strategic research based in paris fiona hill is a senior fellow at bosch at the center on the united states in

europe

foreign policy and the brookings institution and ivan krastyev is a permanent member of the institute for the chapter fund view mention here in vienna thank you all very much for coming I wish it was under happier circumstances um but we have What we have is um and Timothy Snyder , who is also a professor of history at Yale and a permanent member of the institute for this fun mention that he is going to moderate, so I will hand it over to them, okay, thank you, so thank you, thank you.
the hijack europe belarus and the abduction of roman protasevich

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the hijack europe belarus and the abduction of roman protasevich...

Many times again to all our panelists for joining us in such a short time. I am very pleased to have assembled a group with expertise that ranges from the philosophical to the strategic and in a group that in one way or another has expertise that is directly relevant to this baffling and disturbing turn of events. Hopefully in the next 60 minutes we can bring some clarity to this, and when I say, I mean before anything else. the panelists, so as chair it's my job to give them a voice, we're going to have a brief discussion where each panelist will speak, then we'll have a more informal discussion and I'll try to work on some of your questions as we do it.
the hijack europe belarus and the abduction of roman protasevich
So if you have questions, please leave them in the general chat and I will try to answer and resolve them. Martin Malik, I would like to start with you before moving on to the surprising events of May 23rd. I thought it would be helpful if we could have a few minutes of background on the Lukashenko regime, if you could remind us of some of the things that might make this turn of events a little less surprising or, in general, some of the things. What should we know about the Lukashenko regime I would very much appreciate the floor bottles thank you Timothy first of all hello everyone and thank you for inviting me to this very distinguished group of experts and academics well, we all know what happened to them Two days ago in the airspace Russian, this is a totally, as far as I remember, unique case of a very unusual

hijack

ing of a plane, usually it is done by some pirates who are inside the plane, but in this particular case it was carried out from the outside but many Political commentators in the media in academic circles have expressed some kind of surprise, we said this is very, very unusual, strange, we've never had that before, so of course this is all true, uh, but, uh.
the hijack europe belarus and the abduction of roman protasevich
From my point of view, one cannot be entirely surprised if we take into account the character traits of the Lukashenko regime, because this would help us understand what it is capable of doing. I want to remind you that Mr. Lukashenko was elected. president of

belarus

huh, on the basis of a recently democratically enacted constitution of

belarus

, without a doubt, the first badly russian post-soviet constitution in 94. this means that it is in power for 27 years, i think in europe only queen elizabeth Secondly, if I am not mistaken, it is already Mr Lukashenko and in these 27 years many things happened that had largely been forgotten in the European Union and North America or had never really come into focus. this, so to speak, collective consciousness. from the public uh end of the political sphere um I want to remind you of an incident that occurred in September 1995 when a Russian air force attack helicopter shot down a balloon that had participated in a gas balloon race and had completely entered under Russian airspace The inadvertent advantage, so to speak, from Lukaszenko's specific point of view was that both crimes killed citizens of the United States, a country he vehemently dislikes and the Belarusian official has never often apologized to make up for the deaths. and in the European Union in the northern United States, no one was interested in this incident at all, so the Lukashenko regime became more and more authoritarian.
Unfortunately, we do not have time to go into details and remember all the details of the various referendums that Lukaszenko had carried out to create something. some imagination about a democratic legitimation that was indeed very questionable. I just want to remember that Mr. Lukashenko in '96 pushed for big amendments to the Russian constitution that gave him much more power in the fall of '96 from Lukashenko's point of view. opinion, of course, unreliable, so to speak, unicameral parliament, the supreme suhit has just been dissolved and replaced again by lukashenko and by a bicameral parliament in which, with very few exceptions, only his supporters have been represented since the end of the 96, that is, for 25 years.
The opposition is hardly represented in the independent Russian parliament in 99. Several opposition politicians, including former interior minister General Yuri Sakharenko and former deputy prime minister Rick Dorgonchak or Hanchow in Russian, died under unexplained circumstances; However, there are numerous indications that Lukashenko ordered or at least approved his assassination and in the second half of the 1990s, when Russian President Boris Yeltsin in Moscow was increasingly weak politically and in terms of health, Lukashenko dreamed of become the president of the new so-called union state uniting his country Belarus However, with Russia this ended in 99 and 2000 due to the well-known rise to power of Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.
So I want to remind you that Belarus is the only country in Europe that still dictates and carries out death sentences. Because? It is not a member of the Council of Europe and all this in the European Union and in North America went unnoticed in general, it was and remained for a long time a kind of unknown terror and only in very small circles of politicians, political scientists, some historians and economists paid attention. to the events in Belarus, although everyone knows that it is a completely European country. This is not, I don't know, South America or central Africa.
Minsk is an hour and a half away by plane, of course, if you're not being intercepted. by fighter plane from Vienna, where I am now an hour and a half away, this is very close and this situation changed at least to some extent only last summer in August 2020, when the manipulation of the presidential elections by Mr. lukashenko became It's too obvious, but nevertheless he maintained his power by using, in a very, very harsh way, his security forces, that is, especially the Ministry of the Interior and the KGB, the Committee for State Security , which hasn't even changed its name since the Soviet Union. times I want to say that it is this committee for state security um it has been renamed or dissolved or reformed in some way in all the other former Soviet republics even in Russia but not in Belarus it is still the kgb and using these security agencies uh lukaszenko it has generally crushed the resistance of the democratically minded people who wanted uh sid lanatic to become the next president of pilarus, but as everyone knows, she is in exile and I don't think she will do so in the near future .
She has some prospect of returning to Belarus as president. thank you martin, thank you, thank you for that excellent introduction, it is, it is, it is, it is very valuable for us to remember the background because, as you say, it can't make sense of everything, but it certainly prepares us to try to make sense of things and you raised us very well to swallow who, as some of you may know, was one of the few Western reporters who was in Minsk in August in September last year to report that it was immense for several weeks um, what I would like softc to do It is to give us an idea of ​​the importance of the young man who was arrested and the importance of his network that Nyekta was working for at the time and perhaps give us a sense of how these events will be captured by the beautiful Russian opposition so softc the word is yours um thank you very much um next our nectar uh as we say in Russian was absolutely crucial and still is um because they resist uh resides in Warsaw, no one turned off the Internet and they were much safer at least at that time, during it, during the protests, and they were guiding the protests, this is the most basic answer, the real organizers of the protests were the people, in reality, this had no leaders. movement, so even when they captured chikanovska and also forced her to give a statement, no one expected any other behavior from the kgb, so no one blamed her, like now no one blames praticevic, it's a standard job, everyone you know in the east, but um, but but people knew where to go what to do how to behave what's the danger uh because of the daily routine that we had on a daily basis nexta that means well that was literally like a day two plan in period we met in the main squares then we moved to here or there um and so when you saw every Sunday 200 000 people uh and they knew where to go it was exactly because then they coordinated it and they were using very attractive style uh their messages were very hot uh there were even some controversies that the people residing in Warsaw are like or as if they coordinated all these protests in reality no one wanted to be I know that even today no one believes that a group of young 20 year old boys could coordinate such a massive protest but this was the truth and this was a kind of mystery of this and that and the powerful side of this, now we see that the controversies were meaningless because they were risking a From what we know now, but they were collecting thousands of information trying to verify it and then by selecting and channeling it next at that time, maybe it's still the biggest Telegram channel in the world.
They were also running YouTube. channels, etc, etc., they were extremely active um and they were uh they were well, they had a responsibility that was enormous and really incredible um so um so when uh then they are valuable to lukashenko for two or three reasons, one is revenge kashanka is very emotional and kashanka knows who is who did it to him and the next is like cutting next to three leaders is probably the next person to be uh to express his location because revenge, so this is to address to address The second thing is the contact.
Kashenko knows or at least Lukaszenko assumes that the next thing is that the wild prata knows everyone in Belarus, activists, journalists, everyone who can be dangerous to the regime, of course, I mean that the people in the galleries are intelligent and disciplined, so it's not like that. It doesn't mean that people were sending picture messages, all with their names and also then, uh, this group of people who are smart people, so they didn't want to know much either, but at least question the code, you know, like a paranoid control freak, assumes they know. every everything um um and of course this is to scare the others um um as you know to show that everyone can be captured even then uh uh is uh is an example probably like this and he Russia plays a certain role uh um so more or less This es, this would be the shortest answer possible, okay, just one, maybe to add one thing next.
He was also publishing lists of officials from Bipol, the organization of former militiamen or other officials and, in addition, hackers that they are. The very active IT sector in Belarus produced six percent, they are great, in IT technologies, hackers were doing a great job collecting address names, and then it was the next one who published it again, many, many, many people in this apart. I really once wanted to capture Pratasevic or Stefan, who is another next star leader and you can imagine what the danger is for him now, thank you, so that was it, that was that, it was beautifully concise and clear.
You have given us an idea of ​​why

roman

ce is so important both for Russian beauties and, of course, for the opposite reasons.for the victorious regime. I wonder if you could pick it up at that point. I've had a lot of direct contact with senior Russian activists who have had to leave the country since late 2020 and you're speaking from Lithuania's perspective, so I'm wondering if you could say something about how this has happened. has been or how has this been received by the Russian opposition, what does it mean for them and if you could also go ahead and start talking a little bit about the Lithuanian reaction, the social reaction and also the reaction of the Lithuanian state to these events, so which, of course, yes, okay, thank you, so I think the first thing to note is that although this event attracted the attention of the West, but this is not a renewal of repressions, this is just a simple continuation since August 2020 and I think it's fair to say that in the West it was under the radar, Belarus was almost forgotten.
I think it's fair to say it now someone might think everything was calm and suddenly Lukashenko woke up from his winter and went to sleep. That is not the case. Three days ago we told Ashraq that he died in prison. There was an attack on Tudbai, which is the largest news portal in Belarus, last week. This continue. Basically non-stop since September, I think it's worth reminding people who don't follow that all the candidates, potential candidates who expressed their intention to run against Lukashenko, are still in prison. The son is Babarico's chief of staff, he is there, so this continued.
During the active phase of protests in the fall thousands of people were arrested, so this is nothing new. I think it's important to say, especially in the West, that it's just a continuation. This brings me to another important aspect: after every presidential election or basically after every election in Belarus, we who observe will probably say that it is fair to say that there is always some kind of protest because only Lukashenko's first election, which won, was recognized as fair and won fairly, the rest was basically stolen from the people, so there is always some phase of protests in Belarus and it seems that this latest wave of protests continues longer than usual.
I think it's up to analysts and experts to decide if it means anything and if it means what means what means what. I mean, we have been in a form of protest for almost nine months and if we say that the observers in August and September said that this will die down and that the opposition leaders are weak, they are not politically qualified. Cetlanetichanovska is not even a politician so this will dissipate and evaporate uh I think it's a good time to acknowledge that this is not the case it seems that uh uh the opposition uh is here to stay these these these leaders have shown resistance and continue to fight uh first of all I mean, of course, uh uh and I also mean the remaining part of the Barbarico team and also the Telegram channels and now we are mentioning the nectar, but there are also others and to think that if you arrest Roman Protosavic, of suddenly you will stop the Telegram channels, even Lukashenko is not that stupid, there is no chance, first of all, there is not a single channel, of course, nectar is extremely important, I agree, but it is not essential, so say it, because the risks are shared among other opposition activists, so moving to lithuania lithuania is clearly trying to be take the lead in this new situation after the kidnapping uh clearly he was shocked like everyone, but probably more surprised than anyone else who others because most of the passengers were Lithuanian citizens, so it wasn't the Roman protest, you know. was kidnapped there were more than 100 people who were kidnapped and forcibly taken to Minsk, most of them more than 90 were Lithuanian citizens, so clearly the Lithuanian government is trying to take leadership within the EU, they made a statement yesterday or even Sunday, sorry, there are so many events, but I think it is unprecedented, it is communicated as the position of the Lithuanian republic, which is the one I have never seen, so it is clear that it was clearly coordinated between the president , the prime minister and the foreign minister, have 10 points or a kind of road map of what needs to be done and what is clear that they will propose to the European partners and landing in transit.
However, I have to say that I personally like the decisive tone of that list, but Once again, the sanctions that are proposed are symmetrical sanctions, so they are trying, now they propose to punish all the people and organizations that were involved in this particular incident and, as we already know, Bellavia, the Russian aviation company, has already been sanctioned. but I think it doesn't touch Lukashank at all, so if we talk about sanctions, if they work, they have to hurt and follow Paschenko, what will hurt are the sanctions on the industry that is still mainly owned by the state. the big industrial factories in Belarus like Mars and others, that is the country's source of income and that is how it continues to pay the salaries of Oman kgb and others, so I think it needs to be reconsidered.
I'll stop here for now, okay? victorious thank you thank you very much um francoise libro you are a leading strategist. I hope you can help us put these issues into a couple of broader perspectives. um first of all, can you give us an idea from a strategic perspective how unusual or rule-breaking this particular incident is, what it really means from a strategic perspective and then secondly, could you continue with the comments from Victorus giving us a broader idea of ​​whether you think the European response is sensible and strategically appropriate and if you could say a word towards the end also about um yellow russian russian military cooperation I think that would also be useful so great agenda thank you very much thank you thank you tim uh well, I'm glad you did.
I asked the precedent-setting question, if I can put it that way, it's really, at least for the last 65 years, I haven't found an equivalent precedent. 65 years ago the French air force intercepted a Moroccan plane with the leadership of the Algerian rebellion on board approximately half of the senior leaders were kidnapped, that is a true equivalent and it is the only one I could find and of course in those days air travel did not have the importance that it has today in terms of the functioning of the planet, uh, the assumption until Minsk happened was that if you travel from Europe to Japan and you are not friends with the Russian government or the Chinese government, you do not run the risk of the Chicago convention of 1944, etc.
It's very, very clear and everyone assumed that that particular part of the fabric of globalization was here to stay. Now we know that a very large cut has been made with a knife in that tissue, so that is an added importance. Let's move on to the other important aspects of this matter, the fate of a man, the fate of a country's opposition, etc., but this is something really important. Europe, good news, bad news, good news and, in fact, to some extent, surprising news. that it only took 24 hours for the European Union to present a fairly clear declaration that all 27 were able to sign and which is not exactly unremarkable.
A Bellavia plane cannot enter the airspace of the European Union. There are 19 countries in the European Union. Those served by that airline will no longer be served by that airline, and of course all European Union airlines are now prohibited from flying over Belarus. You may have seen the photo from the flight radar website where we see a large black hole in the middle of European airspace and this black hole where there are no planes is Belarus, so this is not exactly a dive and it is quite immediate, so that's the good news, the bad news is that I don't know if it will work and the worst news is that they most likely won't and in fact my own reaction yesterday was to try to convince some of my friends to that we should actually be tougher and that's going for a disruption. of a land border, commercial exchanges between Belarus and the European Union on the border of the three countries of the union that are in Belarus, that would have very, very seriously harmed the companies that we just mentioned, they are very dependent on exports to the European Union and they depend heavily also on some of your input for some of the input on the European Union the question the real question now for the European Union is whether people are ready to go one step further if this whole thing goes away. resolves unresolved is the release of the person who was kidnapped the release and restoration of freedom of movement of that person if that does not happen is the European Union ready to go further? another point about the European Union which made me think that The European Union acts promptly according to any standard.
It was the notion that this was truly European. An airline registered in Europe. In fact, I think it is the most important airline in terms of the number of passengers carried by a European airline in European airspace. capital of the union to another capital of the European union, and I think all the passengers on board were, but I don't think any of them were American, I can put it that way, so this was a truly European affair and we were going if we were going to fail, it would not be possible to hide behind the Americans for our failure, a strategic autonomy was not going to go very far if we could not even confront Mr.
Lukashenko, hey, that has played a role. about russia in your last question russia belarus whatever the political permutations in belarus since the disintegration of the soviet union 30 years ago russia never ceased to enjoy a specific relationship with belarus in the field of defense in terms of the necessary facilities for air defense and in terms of the facilities needed for missile defences, including those that protect Moscow, and which will remain a primary consideration, whatever happens, whatever happens next, and I'm sure Fiona will have some things to say about it. The important thing, of course, for Russia is also to be able to threaten Ukraine from the north if necessary and, in fact, in the recent confrontation between Russia and Ukraine with the 120 or 130,000 Russian soldiers prepared at a time to be able to move. uh, from crimea, uh, from the rostov area and from belarus, uh, to ukraine, well, belarus was part of that, despite, of course, lukashenko's refusal to support the annexation of crimea, etc., yes Let me go back for a second. uh, the air ban, uh, the EU decision, one of the problems with the EU decision is that it affects ordinary Russian citizens more than it actually affects the assets of the ruling clique and travelers From Belarus to Western Europe they will now have to travel by road. or by train or taking a plane from Moscow, if I can put it that way, I'm not sure that's a particularly politically desirable outcome compared to other options.
Thank you very much, Francois, and thank you for bringing us to the point. The central question that I have the pleasure of being able to ask Fiona Hill is what does this look like from the perspective of the immediate and medium-term Russian objectives and then, for me, the ten thousand dollar question at the moment and people have Ya We have defined positions on both sides and I'm going to share mine before this is all over, do we believe that, or do we believe, and how do we believe that Russia was informed and involved in this and to the extent that we believe that Russia can withstand anything? responsibility it would also be appropriate to consider including Russia in European or American policy responses so you know the voices, the voice is yours, thank you very much, uh, tim, and it's great to be part of this panel.
I have already learned a lot from listening to everyone. of our colleagues and I am sure that Iran will summarize everything perfectly. In the end I wanted to pick up right where Francois left off because I mean we can't really separate Belarus from Russia at this particular moment. point so you know if you know that Vladimir Putin was informed or if he gave an order about this or if you knew that he and his team were part of the planning. In some ways it's almost irrelevant because Belarus and Russia have that. It was a symbolic union treaty and it has become more and more real and there are many reasons why that is the case and one of them is because of Lukashenko's own personal situation at the moment, so I am not saying that it is completely irrelevant whether they did it or not. this, but the point is that Belarusian Russia is becoming part of a continuum.
There are many different reasons why this is not just what Francois said about air defense and some of the other military aspects. You must also remember that Belarus is the land corridor. for supply to Kaliningrad and I'm sure Francois was going to think about that and he immediately thought about it now that I said it, but you know, I mean Belarus is the only link to Kaliningrad, you know, which puts Lithuania very far away. Estonia is also in very uncomfortable positions because that exclave, um, although it was once Germany and Kenicksburg, is fundamental to Russia's position at seabaltic and Russia's overall strategic outlook in Europe, um, and when you know, myself and many of my other colleagues who spend a lot of time worrying about what the Russians might do next, there's always been something with Belarus tied to Kaliningrad, already You know, the risks for Kaliningrad are they fear that air supply or sea routes for cleaning graduates will be cut off and that always meant that Belarus, like Ukraine, was always going to be in Russia's crosshairs and I think you know that francois is also right that of course belarus puts a pincer movement and more pressure on ukraine from the north, so in a military sense belarus is always part of russia. strategic thinking in europe and you also know to keep belarus away from any kind of association with europe with nato or even closer relations with the united states, but i want to put in perspective also um martin um reminded us in the sameThe beginning of this long story in which Lukashenko was in power for 27 years, but you know, we also have now, a year and a half ago, two years ago, 2019, the technocrats in the bill of the Russian governments, some of whom also They have died quite mysteriously now or unfortunately. like um alex kravchenko, the deputy foreign minister who was about to become ambassador to the united states, they went to people like me when i was in the administration and tried to boost belarus's relations not only with europe but also with the states united to try to find some room for maneuver away from the united states of russia at that time two years ago in 2019 lokashenko did not want to get married to put putin was trying to find a way out and was trying to find a way out precisely through the state industries that have been mentioned so many times to try to attract European and American investors, if possible, and as absurd as it may seem now belarus uh bill of russia belarus had suggested hosting the annual ebrd conference the european bank for reconstruction and development in minsk were putting their luck, so it seemed that with europe and in the west what changed the elections since everyone said that the opposition the fact that what lukashenko had done with his technocrats was not enough to win in a real sense they felt that the population wanted something more, they didn't want lukashenko for another 27 years and of course all this is happening just as putin's own opposition in russia is starting to rise, so the poisoning of navalny is also related to what was happening in Belarus because Vladimir Putin amended the constitution last year as you know, we heard from Malta that he did it years ago to allow himself, if he wants or if the system wants, to remain in power in theory until 2036, at which point you will have surpassed where Lokashenko is now, if Lukashenko was removed by the opposition, this is again very similar also to Venezuela with Nicolas Maduro Frankly and Guido and everything we saw in Venezuela a couple of years ago, but if um Lokashenko had been successfully removed both in whose election she obviously was and then by the opposition, what message would that be to Putin, who at one point was thinking about preserving himself in power and influence through this Belarusian-Russian union and perhaps establishing a new sauce tip? or knew some superstructure, all this kind of imagination behind the scenes so that the removal of akashenko would have been disastrous for putin and at the same time that all the protests are taking place in minsk and elsewhere, alexis navalny is running around in euros and in siberia it is fomenting similar types of opposition and if it is just poisoned at the same time, all this is happening and there are also separate opposition activities, but you know, interrelated, like a kobarovsk um opposing putin and other, uh, efforts to put his own people in You know, remote provinces of Russia and rising, you know, a kind of local interest in politics, so all of this has collided, so the project is essentially like Navalny and you know what What we have seen is that I know that Kashenko has had to run. now, towards Russia it has had to abandon the technocratic idea of, you know, balancing with Europe and it has joined forces with Moscow, so obviously it has also abandoned its technocrats because they have all disappeared from the scene as well.
My theory was that they had promised that they would show some success in the elections, that by opening up Belarus with this EBRD having another type of important reform program, they thought they would buy the support of the population, but it didn't work. It's a very chilling message to Putin and to others who are also watching this and you know we can also, I think put what happened in the same bracket as what we just saw in Lagotta, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and I think you know Ivan can have something to say about it. also because putin had wanted to teach nicole pashinan a lesson because pashinyan came to power in armenia in the context of a grassroots opposition movement that was overthrowing the old system that had been favored to a certain extent by moscow because they could manipulate them and passion tried. . go out and branch out on his own and, you know, basically, Alif seems to have gone to Moscow, increasingly frustrated at not being able to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh diplomatically and decides to join Moscow, you know, basically. have the opportunity to recover the occupied territories of Nagorno-Karabakh in which Armenia has been based since 1994, since Lukashenko came to power, Aliyah had a little more room for maneuver because she had the turkey in which she had invested over time .
Turkey, in a kind of pact, gave itself a little distance, gave itself a little room to maneuver to go to Karabakh, um against Russia, but Lukashenko does not have that luxury, Turkey does not have Europe. he just has himself and now I think what Lukashenko is trying to do is create some room for maneuver, I'm afraid to say, by eliminating the opposition and also showing Moscow that he can do it, so there may actually be no coordinated this with Moscow because he could be showing Moscow how bold he can be because the last thing Lukashenko wants to be is Putin and Putin getting passionate about him or what Putin could have done with Yanukovych for example all he has is Putin and Putin could easily prop it up. lift it up and then take it out so lukashenko is fighting for his life and still doing outrageous things and you know i hate to say that anything going back to what francois said will probably make the project slip out of lukashenka's clutches and this is like skripal, this It's like the takedown of MH17, it's all kinds of brazen acts that we have to respond to now by simply saying: okay, you know we see what you're doing and we're not going to let you do this. at your expense and I think about what Victoria said about the fact that you know that more than 100 Lithuanian citizens were taken hostage as were citizens of a large number of countries, from Malaysia to the United States and the Netherlands, who you know were killed by MH17 in Skripal.
British citizen Don Sturgis was murdered, we cannot allow these things to happen, so I think we have to act very strongly, but knowing full well that this will be absolutely terrible for the citizens of Belarus who, you know, are completely opposed to All this. themselves, but also that lokashinka has nothing but Putin to turn to and that is what he is doing, he is trying to fight now for his survival at the national level, but also so that Putin does not completely decide what to do with him next , that's fine thanks. Thank you very much, Yvonne, I left you the task of collecting the points that you would like to return to and adding some if you want conclusions and synthetic comments and then we will have a few minutes left at the end. end of questions, a couple of themes have come up in the questions, so I'll give everyone a chance to discuss those main themes before we do that cross talk with Yvonne.
We await her response. Thank you very much and the colleagues were very eloquent and clear, so there is nothing to summarize, I just want to make three points that go in the same direction that Francois and Fiona were going. One is that Mr. Okashank was playing a difficult game during these years, he had a lot. Rather, he was trying to convince the Russians in Belarus that he is only guaranteed the country's sovereignty, playing the West against Russia, Russia against the West, and even In the last presidential elections he spoke much more about Russian interference than Western interference.
In some ways it was a regime change and what we know for sure is that Russia is dead set on keeping Belarus in its sea of ​​influence. What we don't know is whether they are fully determined to keep Mr Kashenko where he is and whether Do you remember two months ago there was a major scandal, a talk in Moscow? Two figures beneath the Russian opposition have been arrested for speaking out about the coup. Kashenko is going to be assassinated. His son is going to be killed, so from this point of view I will do it. Let us not be surprised that even the Russians are shocked by what happened because in a strange way Mr.
Upashank is making the cost of his removal now symbolically high for Moscow because if Lukashenko is going to be removed now it means it was because of Western pressure , so This is their own way of playing and, by the way, the fact that there is a Russian citizen, the girlfriend of the leader arrested, is also not good for Russia and to be honest, the Russians do not

hijack

planes, they have a well... they developed a chemical industry as we know it recently, so they probably know how they can eliminate people without having to travel on a major plane, but on the european side i think of course francois is very right that there was a very rapid reaction in the European case.
There is always something to admire, but I think we still have the opportunity to show something different. I do not see why the European Union cannot declare that we are going to give ten thousand scholarships to Russian children who are going to come to study in Europe starting in September. I do not see why we are not going to say that we are willing to vaccinate for below the Russians who are going to come to Europe from this point of view and this is my only point, what we should fear is that the interest Both the forecasts and those of Russia to close the country should not be done with our hands in a certain way , I am much more in favor of an asymmetric response, unfortunately we are very predictable as a foreign policy actor and I think that if we are going to come with an important initiative that also declares that it is going to be easy for Belarusian IT companies to register in the EU capitals and others, this is going to create a lot more disruption in the system than just continuing and, uh, taking this into account.
My last point is that our sanctions are not to fly over Belarus. I think it's just time that Russia is going to say that this is bad for the climate because planes are flying longer now. Thank you, okay, Yvonne, well, yes. They, if they hadn't thought about it yet, now they have it, so we can expect it. Thank you, thank you very much for those comments, which lead very well to some of the topics. and the questions and and the way I wanted to summarize those questions, so I would like to ask, we have about seven or eight minutes left.
I'd like to ask all the panelists and you know, they just nod their heads. Go ahead if you want an answer, if you want to answer about the meaning of these sanctions and I say this from four different points of view, number one, if, as Fiona Hill says, we have to analytically consider Russia and Belarus as a unit. So shouldn't we think creatively about who we're sanctioning here? Does it really make sense to keep sanctions limited to the yellow Russian state? The second, the second point that was raised by two or three panelists is the connecting rod.
Russian population and I want to expand on that point. I would have thought it would be in Western interest for Bellavia to fly more flights rather than fewer flights. I would have thought that it would be in our interest for more Russian bellavias to have contact with the West. rather than less, and it seems that in a way you could understand the European sanctions as a plank on the platform and be provocative here of the beautiful state of the Russian union because that means that, in the absence of other options, the other Russians are going to be By traveling more to Russia, I think we have strengthened Russia's position here in cultural and social terms and the third thing I wanted to do here and what follows, I just repeat it, Ivan, really is that this was totally predictable, I mean, you already know.
It doesn't have to be, it doesn't have to be a classic example of Russian, you know, you know, thoughtful response to just note that we did exactly exactly what was going to be what they would have predicted and what I mean when I tweeted about this right after and I said this is what the Europeans are going to do and this is what they did and it's not just that predictability in itself is kind of a problem, but I'm afraid it also gives the Europeans a feeling of oh, we've done the right thing, we've checked the box like this is about air travel, our sanctions are about air travel, you know, no one can say that we did something irresponsible, but if so, if what we do isso completely predictable that that basis Russian TV presenters already have their jokes written about it in advance, what is the case, if what we do is like this, it is predictable and it is not a problem for us, then my question would be again with Yvonne, would it be like that?
It makes sense to have a response that's not a negative response, but a positive response that we're actually getting closer in some ways, so, you know, and as we think about how you know this first round of sanctions could change, we should also think about it. every now and then one of the audience members mentioned what we do when Prata Savage, you know, God forbid, appears to be injured or killed, right? I mean, because one outcome is that he's released, that's where that's a possible outcome, but there's another possible outcome that is. that we will never see it again or that something worse than that will happen, so there is a general, but there are a series of questions that have to do with the sanctions, what, what, what, fiona hill, in a very subtle way, I is suggesting that she I would like to try to answer, yes, I actually want to clarify something because I think you know when I said something it was provocative in the way I was framing things, but I think what Evan said at the end and I think you know bring it up.
Slavs and victorious in this, besides important, we do not want to lose Belarusian sovereignty or the sovereignty of the people, so what I was putting in this hard line was thinking about the union treaty and Lukashenko himself and I think we should always do it, if we can. I think Lukashenko is very isolated actually because look, he also got rid of half of his technocrats who had bought into this while he was doing something, so I think of the now deceased Kravchenko, who I thought was a very sincere person in my many meetings with him throughout all the years since he was at the embassy here, they were seriously trying to do something, I mean, now he's literally dead and, you know, I don't know if it was a natural thing. suffered a heart attack, he was a young man and you know a lot of those people have also disappeared, like in Russia, at a different time, there were a lot of people who tried to put the Lukashenko regime, frankly, on a different path and they failed, so which is not like that. just the opposition that came from the street there were people in the system trying to change things and I'm sure they would still like to see some change so I think something similar to what Ivan was saying and I'm sure he came out victorious . and the slavs also have some ideas that you know from the outside also about what we could do because it should not be that we abandon the russian sovereignty bill just because lokashenko has decided to do it, he is not even like general yarozzelski, who has been surrendered. sovereignty because it is again exactly what was happening in Ghana Karabakh, where Alief gave up what he said he would never do as the Russian peacekeepers, in other words, we managed to bring in the Turks because he wanted it more than anything. have some success in Ghana and as a result both Armenia and Azerbaijan and Ivy were sold down the river, but this is what Lokashenko only sold to Belarus for the country, these people down the river to save his own skin. thank you fiona, I'm glad, I'm glad you were the first to respond because I know you have a strict deadline, we might take a few minutes, we might go a few minutes over 60 minutes, so I just want to make sure thank you you before you leave francois are willing to answer yes, thank you very much tim uh uh tim you said that there were several possibilities and one is that we would not see the kidnapped person again uh that is unfortunately true and that also means that it is extremely difficult at this stage give a positive asymmetrical response like, oh if you give it back to us we will extend the 10,000 scholarships to russian bella students, that would be a bit awkward, it probably wouldn't help you and it's worse that it may actually hurt you Ursula van der leyen actually hinted at an isometric response when he said yesterday that if Belarus becomes a normal European country we will have a.
I forgot what the number was, whether it was a package of 20 billion or 30 billion ready for Belarus, well, yes, of course, but for the moment we want to ensure the release, obviously, the survival of the person who has been kidnapped, That's very complicated, but I agree with what you said Tim and what you've even said on the air as well. answer, if I can put it that way, we should be ready, and we should have been ready, but it is never too late to change our mind, we should be ready, to stop Belarusian trade and that which passes through the European Union. and that is a big part of trade and it is trade that allows the survival of the regime and of course it would also pose problems for Russia even if Russia is not directly designated in diplomatic or political terms.
Okay thanks. I think if Yvonne wanted to jump. and then she maybe she taught us just one phrase. I very much agree with Francois. It shouldn't be that we are giving out 10,000 scholarships to get Roman out. I think it's something totally different. Basically we are going to say that we are not going to do it. Pay a visit to anyone who is working in the security apparatus in Belarus, but at the same time and in my opinion and to a large extent I am on the same page as Fiona if we try to consider Russia and below Russia as a union state. so we are going to basically contribute to destroying the sovereignty of Belarus and I don't think we should do it very well okay, Martin Malek has his hand up uh yes, yes, thanks timothy regarding a question about whether it would be possible to apply something any positive response , I think it is very important because it points to a very complicated issue, how is it possible or if it is possible to punish the regime in some way and not punish the Russian population and not punish, of course? the people who were on the streets for several months to express their discontent with the Lukashenko regime, of course, I do not think that anyone will oppose more scholarships for regular Russian students and you, so to speak, have to speak at a real university Russian opposition. in Vietnamese and for a long time, but let me ask you another question: what would happen if no action is taken after this approach of the blatant kidnapping in the percentage of the Roman border?
Yes, I think it's a legitimate question, and this reminds me. i want to quote an apple bomb who wrote yesterday in the atlantic wrote that other regimes will also hijack planes, that is, if nothing has been done, if belarus has its way, authoritarian regimes around the world will have a new tool of oppression in quotes, I think we should continue Taking this into account, the worst thing you can do is remain passive. Yes, the European Union has taken the first step with the sanctions that we have already discussed. I mean blocking European airspace for Russian civil aircraft, but in the end it is in the interests of the largest.
Russian people who certainly want freedom I have no doubt that in the interests of the Russian people it would be bad to stop here thank you okay thank you so what I'm going to do is what I'm going to do I'm going to give your opinion to um suavec y victorious before closing the session, but before I do that, although I just want to make it clear that I want to expand on Martin's comment by pointing out that there are other precedents that have been established and that must be considered like this, it has been said that a state can hijack a civilian airliner and the sanctions and the European response, which I quite agree, were necessary and quick, point to that, but a couple of other things have happened, one after another.
What has happened is that an air traffic controller has almost certainly knowingly lied to a pilot about a matter of life and death, so if that is not recognized and stigmatized, you will be in a world where pilots are not sure I can do it. Listen to air traffic controllers because aircraft controllers have lied to you, and relatedly, we are destined to have a counterterrorism app or apparatus that, at least at some fundamental basic level, involves trust between countries that would otherwise They wouldn't get along. That device was simply abused. Code language between Russian authorities and the pilot of the Ryanair flight was abused to suggest a terrorist attack was taking place.
If we cannot trust each other regarding signs of terrorism, then we are also making terrorism easier to carry out. Those are two other things that happen and I think we have to think about them when we think about the response and how important it is that this not become a precedent, okay, victor, and then we're going to say goodbye to our patient. victorious listeners yes, okay, so I would like to say a few words about sanctions, we sort of turned this debate into either or uh like we have to choose punitive measures or what we call positive sanctions, but I think we need both. but I would call asymmetric sanctions in the sense that the incident is with the airlines but we should not respond in terms of aviation, we should punish where it hurts but also, of course, we have to work with society and what Ivan said, I think it is It definitely needs to be done, it definitely needs to be done along with the punishment and also something else so as not to turn Russian society against you, you need to work with the opposition, it is there and don't assume that you know better than the Belarusians what it is. what they need and what works and the last point, although it has already been said, but the last thing we need is to put Belarus and Russia in one basket.
I'm pretty convinced that Russia has been very secretive in the latest wave of protests because that's not the case. I don't want to repeat the mistake that Ukraine made by overreaching and then turning the population against itself at the moment all polls show that the 80 percent majority of Belarusians are against any common state with Russia, so just we can make We can't make a serious mistake: we start to think of Belarus and Russia as a single entity because, but the Russians themselves don't believe that even the Russians themselves think that, so we have to be very careful, thank you, okay , softc, you have The last word, my general impression is that the sanctions are to protect the Europeans and in fact this map seems like there is more than to protect the Belarusians, since the same map made me feel how they feel these Balusans when they see the same map, while we.
I can feel some satisfaction um like but being in the media now and seeing that there is no way out you feel like a hostage I'm not sure about having more contacts now and it's not a joke as a child raised in the 80s um i i I can say that more contacts with Russians and less with the West will rather produce the opposite reaction. So I mean, of course, long term when you talk about centuries, of course not, but when you talk about geopolitics today. I'm not so sure because the other thing is I mean, I would appreciate it and we didn't discuss it.
I would and no one really seems to argue with it. I would appreciate it more, so somehow rough methods. uh from from from from European union, I'm not talking about military issues or anything like that, but I mean bribing officials, supporting, as a local, trying to get some contacts for civilian journalists, many of them in Belarus, so because you know what is the only condition. If you want people to go on strike or do something, it is to somehow replace the state, providing them with economic well-being, otherwise they will not go on strike because that in addition to the fact that their families totally depend on the state, that is why this is what Mukashenko did. . for the last 27 years, building the whole system to make you and your family dependent, trying to cut these ties would make a lot of sense, that's why you have all these fines, this infrastructure is built, it's not easy to finance it from the outside, but I would do it. welcome at least a discussion about it instead of, as you know, the most basic methods of sanctioning um um regarding 70, I don't see much difference between the railway 70, between lukashenko and the opposition regarding 70 of Russia, I want I mean, mukashinko was very, very intelligent. and cheat, he was probably the only better cheater than Putin in the world and he knows how to deal with Putin and his first move once he recovers will be to stay away and defend himself well. below 70, as he understands it in Russia, but, of course, again dealing with Bukashenko giving him something.
Poland tried to do it in 2010, it didn't work, so I would first go and listen to some experts tell how to do it and still cooperate with hackers. local people giving scholarships but not exhausting people but trying to help people within Belarus this would be something that I think is good, thank you salvik, thank you very much to all of you, I mean, if I could summarize these last comments. I think it's been very helpful for us to be reminded that, as surprised as we are and as imperfect as our response, there is this long-term issue of the Russian baal opposition and the Russian opposition and I feel it in the Russian population and so on. .
Whatever we do when we think about Europeans or when we think about broader strategic issues, we must make sure we keep in mind thebill of the Russian opposition and the Belarusian population and that everything we do is consistent. with some kind of plan for a future that has something to do with his own wishes and desires again. Thank you all very much for your clarifying comments from all these directions. Very thankful. I have learned a lot. I'm sure the public does too, thank you.

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