# Statistik â€“ wenn Zahlen lÃ¼gen (Leo Warnow â€“ Science Slam)

Aug 15, 2022yes thank you yes well now the subject of statistics if the numbers lie a trip to the mathematical cabinet of curiosities but don't worry we are not going to go up directly with mathematics 1 we are going to go up for a moment in my an essential year everything has already been controlled my name it's a leo it was I'm a mathematician and that's the first problem because as a mathematician I'll tell you that it's not easy, thanks tanke, yes, he really had the problem, that is, every time I talk to people and, contrary to generalized clichÃ©s, it happens every once in a while then at some point there always comes a critical point where people ask me what do you do so you studied math yes and it's rarely a person like that math sounds exciting but what so why Usually, it's more like oh yeah, I only have one quote, but my absolute favorite answer is math, I have that in d. he always hated school yeah i mean what do you mean by that? oh math i always hated that in school and now that i do too i dont know but i asked myself what can you do with people today? you didn't meet right away, yes, you thought well, do the classic as the first of the private hotel with an infinite number of rooms, an infinite number of guests and what is happening there, but I think not, these are all 1 million professionals who know what they can do so i thought ok as a mathematician you can also use some clichÃ©s mass tisch schÃ¶n calls proof existence and clarity this is how it happens to us mathematicians and i thought i would do my favorite proof right away yes the existence of the perfect woman no you can do that here comes the equal opportunity officer ran to the stage and said ok now but please also prove the existence of the perfect man and that would be just mine today the time frame was too big so that wasn't possible either yes and i have to admit i was a bit desperate so i thought tokyo what can you do but then the solution came as all great solutions come today in day, yes, you should know that concept. every day two types of news the first to start with leo i haven't heard from her in a long time how are you and gentlemen can you solve this task for me too and the second type which is essentially so funny and ridiculous about mathematicians has i want any case, to be a folder, i wrote to take a look, i said, hey guys, there's already been new studies showing that twelve out of eight people are totally overwhelmed with math. the thing about statistics if numbers lie now if numbers lie if they still talk to me i always ask people what they hate about math and what do they get there i told them all the math with your numbers everything is so concrete you can't rotate anything don't do anything interpret the numbers they don't lie and i always think to myself you didn't open the diary today yes and if i see a number then look first i think about it ok it's realistic can i live with a number like that ?

Yes, the order of magnitude is correct. processes in the brain. don't start with an idea everything should always be clearly defined but now i've realized that it actually works a little differently for a lot of people and the second direct circumvention of the truth of the brain number yes these are also very a often these affected mathematicians said earlier in the day i have to check again i did it of course yes i did it with me here in the open air word from the local newspaper in thuringia read headline with 1300 euros ze hn years older anyway here remains a question yes and there in the first section always in it what people want to have found yes specifically a difference in monthly income of 1300 euros net decides about the tenth year of life what happened here there was a linear connection between income and life expectancy and for all those who are now wondering what the line was again, i have prepared a diagram, yes, so low is income, life expectancy low life, high income, high life expectancy, when I see something like that, I always wonder if it's still a waste of money or it can go away and the second question I ask myself is, depending on how, yes, how do you happened, what was collected for the data, what happened there and the good thing about this article is that it said how the data was calculated and there you can always in the last section so yes, the dates of death are differentiated according to age groups of The 100 and then quote was projected into the future using a rather complicated method and now I have to say that it might not be so bad after all, so if the extrapolation happened with some questionable base quantity, it is indeed a very complicated method. because in general it's not possible to say anymore how realistic is what comes out or if somehow it can still happen, well now you can take a look at it but also not put it in the paper and now most people come e and he keeps saying it's ok in the paper we all saw that but if you now take a correct stat it can't happen that's good as I'm not a mathematician.

Can you find it as a real statistic when I was a federal statistical office? It was on the way but a credible question and I looked at the method of collecting private consumer spending in germany yes I'm glad it was sound and I looked at exactly the average of beverages and tobacco products in 2008 and did a bit of conditional for you 321 euros well, not much has happened so far, but we are in the black and, of course, that gives us the opportunity to carry out statistics. He did it in the end. Then I was doing it a little differently, but also with evs and seeing what food, drink and tobacco products for private households. made in 2008 and everyone should know that it already shows 290 that now lost the sticking point no problem I summarize it again so two surveys for the same facts in exactly the same procedure the two different values â€‹â€‹namely 321 and 290 euros it's about a 10 percent deviation by which if I did the study I would say there is no deviation from 5 percent by arithmetic mean yes but no matter how you twist and turn it yes with that much precision the setting is pure desired numbers and the tens place, they can put plus/minus 1 in 300 wherever they want and then the question naturally arises, why? make good mathematicians do something like that yes a federal bureau of statistics why do they do that and is it due to the direct environment of the brain the general rule of thumb is the more kromer and an exact number the more true it is yes and now there are so many in the audience today they are closed in the real world at home, I also affectionately call them users sometimes and that's a group of people that I don't necessarily have a lot in common with and they always ask this question, which I can't understand at all, where you can use it in practice , but especially for you and today I asked myself this question.

Yes, how can I not say this phenomenon in practice wherever you need receipts? Yes, tax return or do it in the company. it is not the error the dna no longer have the receipt of about 50 euros it does not happen but if you go there now and say that I forgot the receipt today but it was 52 eur 83 chrome exactly that can only be the truth in my tax return it has worked so far and now there is one thing, more than the goals were more or less pure than the numbers and that is precisely the statistics, we often have diagrams or as my teacher likes to say, screen and for you users, the real world that I have. it's good that you brought it with you yes it's going very well the boss wants to expand the company and of course he doesn't have an infinite amount of money so you should present to each department your numbers yes numbers environment language the whole truth and then you need the company to be good if not the figures come to us of course first of all I have always broken them down yes for three quarterly years the benefit with inclined listeners has been so I continued to recognize 10,000 euros plus minus to 100 essentially stagnation with us I have prepared a diagram and I care about criticism I've learned what positive things start with so positively that our profits don't come back especially through the roof it's not going well but neither Well what are you doing there?

Well, first of all, the y-axis was cut off very nicely, then the time axis was compressed, and now there is already a clear dynamic, so no one can talk about stagnation here anymore, but the problem is, yes, now we have so much dynamic, sometimes it goes up, sometimes it goes down our product is almost unpredictable it's even worse now that it started with me yes it's such a common phenomenon in math you start somewhere you get to the point where things can't get any worse and then you have to tip the thing somehow ok now i have thought about what we are going to do h the numbers are just not all there we have again sung the new military tax and now clear growth but folks we are professionals so i thought about it from the start club at the top that on the scale our product shoots up like a rocket and to the last person who might look at this weird looking axle split by the way its surprising how few people would do that but that should work r ajax with even more reduced heidelbergs and so the boss can return very briefly in conclusion , yes the hofer on the left started immediately.

If our product is not that important, then I don't know. Thanks.

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