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Professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on Biden vs. Trump

May 13, 2024
Alright. My next guest says don't pay attention to the new poll I'm about to reference, but it shows Donald Trump with a steady lead in the head-to-head rematch against President Biden, putting Trump at 49 % and Biden at 43. But my The next guest even goes so far as to say that you can sign that poll and even the one that shows Trump losing and just being thrown into the flames. He insists that Biden is still the man to beat in 2024. Just to tell you who I'm talking about is Professor Allan LICHTMAN, who

correctly

predicted

nine of the last ten

elections

and in the one he got wrong, 2000, he maintains that in reality won. right and Al Gore defeated George W.
professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on biden vs trump
Bush in the popular vote. So if not the polls, what are you using as a barometer? Well, LICHTMAN says we should follow his 13 keys to the White House. Now, they're all listed here for you, and they include things like the incumbent and third-party candidates, the state of the economy, and of course, social unrest, and six or more go against the party in the White House. Your candidate will lose less than six. Your candidate will win. So where are things now? Let's bring in Allan LICHTMAN to talk about it. Thank you very much for being here. Listen, he hasn't made his official prediction yet.
professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on biden vs trump

More Interesting Facts About,

professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on biden vs trump...

I see the keys. But why do you think Biden is now in charge when all these polls seem to say he should be worried? Remember, all the polls told us that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016. I

predicted

Trump would win in 1988. In May and June, George H.W. Bush trailed his opponent, as did the caucus, by 18 percentage points. He then he won comfortably. Surveys are instant. They are abused as predictors. The keys are different because they take advantage of the structure of how

elections

actually work, which is that they are votes for or against the strength and performance of the White House party.
professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on biden vs trump
Now, why does Biden have an advantage? You know, we heard all this confirmation. There should have been a younger candidate. Watch this. Biden wins the incumbency key, which he saw in his chart. He wins the key to the contest because he does not seriously oppose the nomination. That means six more keys would have to fall into the hands of predictors to see it. Right now, he only loses by the party's mandate based on the House elections and in 2022 and the charisma of the incumbent because he is not Franklin Roosevelt, so the previous keys would have to fall.
professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on biden vs trump
And there are four shaky keys that I haven't mentioned yet and this is what you, the viewers, need to be on the lookout for so the experts get the polls. Third. Will RFK Jr emerge as we get closer as a truly important third candidate? Will the social unrest we now see emerging on campuses continue? We do not know. And, of course, foreign failure and success, which depends on what is going to happen in the Middle East and Ukraine, would have to work against Biden to predict success. That's possible, but not very likely. So what about the timeline on which all of this will happen?
Obviously, as you mentioned, some aspects of it. It's an up and down depending on the day and the length of the day, maybe the key shaking won't last, but it could last longer. Is there a particular limit and when should these keys be in hand? There is no exact limit. Sometimes the keys fall into place very quickly. I predicted that it would be difficult to call the 2012 election in 2010, but right now, because things are so fluid, I can't make a final prediction. But I'll tell you when you can hire me again. I hope to make my last call in early August like I did in 2020.
Oh come on, give me a hint right now. Tell me. Tell me everything. Just you and me, Alan, don't you have a lot of viewers listening too? Well, if you're going to be technical about it. Yes, it's me. I will tell you, as I said, I reiterate, you know, if Biden were not the candidate, the Democrats would have lost the key to the mandate in the race. He won't be in a terrible position. But with Biden winning those two days and only losing four in the four unstable keys I pointed out, everything would have to fall against him.
So unlike polls and experts, I've told your viewers exactly what to look for over the next few months. That's as far as I can go now. Alright. Well, I appreciate it. Next time we'll whisper. Thank you. Be good. This was just this. You and I forget about all the viewers who are watching right now like Morsi. Obviously it's the real scoop, but it's no different from what I've told you. Everyone is fine. Well, I'll buy lunch, but you'll only have water. Thank you, Allan LICHTMAN. Nice to see you. Thank you so much. Whenever. It's always something that I.

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