Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook (WEO)

Well, good morning everyone, welcome to this

press

conference on the global

economic

outlook

. Delighted to be able to join us today. Welcome also to our colleagues who follow us online. Let me introduce you to the speakers at today's

press

conference. We have Geetha Gopinath on my right. the

economic

advisor and the head of the research department of the IMF on his right we have jamario melody Ferretti he is the deputy director of the research department of the IMF and then on his right we have a cello soon she is the head of the division in charge of the

outlook

global economics in the research department Geeta will have some introductory comments and then we will be happy to answer your question, so with that I hand over the fort to Geeta, please, good morning and welcome everyone.

A year ago, economic activity was accelerating by almost A year later, in all regions of the

world

, much has changed due to the escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China. A credit tightening is needed in China. Macroeconomic tension in Argentina and Türkiye. Disruptions in the automotive sector in Germany and financial adjustment along with the normalization of monetary policy in the largest advanced countries. All economies have contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion, especially in the second half of 2018, and this weakness is expected to persist in the first half of 2019. Our new global economic outlook projects a growth slowdown in 2019 to 70% of the global economy. eased to 3.6 percent in 2018 and is forecast to slow further to three point three percent in 2019.

The downward revision to growth of 0.2 percentage points for 2019 is also broad-based and reflects negative revisions for several major economies, including the euro area. The United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, after the start of this week, growth is expected to recover in the second half of 2019. This rebound is supported by significant accommodative monetary policy by major economies, made possible by to the lack of inflationary pressures despite growing at an almost potential level. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England have adopted a more accommodative policy stance. China has stepped up its fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to trade tariffs and, furthermore, the outlook for the United States. triana Trade tensions with China have improved as the prospect of a trade deal takes shape.

Now these responses have helped reverse the tightening of financial conditions to varying degrees across countries. Emerging markets have seen some resumption of portfolio flows. their currencies relative to the US dollar, while improvements in financial markets have been rapid, those in the real economy have been slow to materialise. Measures of industrial production and investment remain weak for now in many major economies and global trade has yet to recover with an improvement. The outlook for the second half of 2019 is forecast to see global growth in 2020 return to 3.6 percent. This recovery is precarious and is based on a rebound in emerging market and developing economies, where growth is projected to increase from 4.4 percent in 2019 to 4.8 percent in 2020 specifically. depends on an expected rebound in growth in Argentina and Turkey and some other stressed economies and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty growth in advanced economies will slow slightly in 2020 despite projected recovery partial recovery in eurozone as a result of the impact of US fiscal stimulus fades and growth tends to show modest potential for the group, given aging trends and low productivity growth beyond 2020.

Global growth is expected to slow stabilize at around three and a half percent, driven mainly by growth in China and India and their increasing weight in global income growth in Emerging market and developing economies will stabilize at five percent, although with a considerable variation as emerging Asia continues to grow faster than other regions. A similar pattern applies to low-income countries, where some particularly raw material importers are growing rapidly, but others are lagging behind the advanced

world

in per capita terms. Generally speaking, while the global economy continues to grow at a reasonable pace and a global recession is not in the baseline projections, there are many downside risks, tensions in trade policy could flare up again and affect other areas such as the sector. automotive with a great impact.

Disruptions to the growth of global supply chains in systemic country areas such as the Eurozone and China could surprise to the downside and risks surrounding Brexit remain heightened. A deterioration in market sentiment could quickly tighten financial conditions in an environment of high public and private sector debt in many countries. Countries, including the sovereign bank. Fatal Loop Risks Given these risks, it is imperative that costly policy mistakes be avoided. Policymakers must work cooperatively to help ensure that political uncertainty does not further undermine investment. Fiscal policy will need to manage the trade-offs between supporting demand and protecting social spending. and ensure that public debt remains on a sustainable trajectory with the optimal mix depending on the specific circumstances of each country.

Financial sector policies must proactively address vulnerabilities by deploying macroprudential tools such as countercyclical capital buffers, a task made more urgent by the potential for rising interest rates. remain low for longer monetary policy must continue to depend on this data be well communicated and ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored in all economies the imperative is to take measures that boost potential output improve inclusion and strengthen resilience a Increased multilateral cooperation to resolve trade disputes to address climate change and cybersecurity risks and improve the effectiveness of international taxation, this is a delicate time for the global economy if downside risks do not materialize and policy support implemented is effective, global growth should recover, if anything.

If one of the main risks materializes, the expected recoveries in stressed economies, in heavily indebted economies, in export-dependent economies, may be derailed, in which case policymakers will need to make adjustments depending on the circumstances, this may require synchronized, yet country-specific, fiscal stimulus across economies, ultimately complemented by accommodative monetary policy. Adequate resources for multilateral institutions remain essential to maintaining an effective global safety net that would help stabilize the global economy. Thank you very much Geeta, so we will try to answer as many questions as possible to cover as many countries and regions as possible. We'll start here in the second row, the gentleman over there, yes please, hello, it's Chris Giles from the Financial Times, as you said, the recovery that you're predicting for the global economy is precarious and there are a lot of risks around how much ammunition believe there is What remains in monetary policy is to address the risks, if they materialize, and how large any coordinated fiscal stimulus that you mentioned again at the end should be, if necessary.

Our baseline forecasts are that global growth will recover in 2020, but in fact this is precarious and there are serious downside risks. The space for monetary policy varies according to the countries of the world. For many advanced economies, it remains limited and we would expect to see unconventional monetary policy tools used, for example in the eurozone, now on the positive side of inflation. Pressures remain low, so there is the possibility that monetary policy will once again be even more fiscally accommodative. This will be very country-specific because it depends on the physical space the countries have if the recession turns out to be much more severe. than what is in our base projection, we would expect a synchronization in fiscal spending because that would be more effective given that I think it would be better in terms of boosting confidence and it would also mitigate some of the negative spillovers from imports, but having said that The real magnitude of that will depend on the circumstances, it will depend on the country.

Thank you very much Gita, so we'll go to the front row, gentlemen. Yes please. Hi, I'm on Business Standard India's Oprah on this because In this trade war there was a concern that a currency war could take place but that didn't actually happen but of course emerging market currencies went down, which is a pressure. The Indian rupee depreciated a lot. Do you think that in this globally connected world? This currency situation is either a real possibility or losing levels that we saw in early 2018 in response to a combination of factors, but not only trade tensions, but also the increase in oil prices that several emerging markets faced. its currency, this remains, I mean, the volatility of exchange rates will remain in case of greater downside risks.

The question is what kind of you know what the impact of our exchange rates will be on trade. I think what we have to maintain. What we keep in mind is that exchange rate movements are largely driven by the monetary policy of different countries and largely by financial risks, so it is very difficult to pin down the direction of exchange rates. change for any of these regions in the future, as we have seen. is that with the more accommodative stance and monetary policy at many of the major banks, we have certainly seen emerging market currencies strengthen relative to the US dollar somewhat partially and as long as things remain relatively stable, you know the trend could persist, thanks Gita. we're going to stay on this side of the room and then we're going to move the gentleman in the second row, right there, yes, good morning, Roberto Petrini La Repubblica Italia, what is your opinion on Italy?

Hide that and the very, very low growth and Do you think that Italy is a risk factor in the economy and internationally and that the Italian government would introduce a flat tax in the Italian economy? What is your opinion on this? Thanks, the second half of 2018 was particularly weak for Italy. I was Li, I was in recession. and that weakness carries over into 2019, the concerns that persist have to do with high levels of debt with high levels of sovereign borrowing costs, banks' borrowing costs and all of this is reflected in weaker investment immediately , so these are risks to keep in mind, especially, that growth in Italy is weak, not just in real terms in nominal terms, which means that we are projecting that the share of GDP will increase in Italy, facing to your question about the flat tax that we would have to wait to see. what are the details about the particular nature of the source of the attacks before we can comment on that, thank you, so let's move to this side of the room.

I'm going to delight in the third row with the pink jacket, please, hello. People study from China. I have a question about trading. Dear, how do you see the trade conflicts between the United States and China and their impact on the global economy? If you reach an agreement, how do you see its importance for the world economy? Thank you for the escalation of trade tensions. between the United States and China was certainly one of the important factors weighing on growth at the end of 2018, we have certainly seen a truth and we have certainly seen negotiations underway and we hope that there will soon be an agreement on nature. of the agreement is not clear, we will have to wait to see what the specific details will be, but as we have said on many occasions, any improvement in trade relations, multilateral cooperation on this front, ensuring that there is some kind of lasting resolution of the trade uncertainty would be very positive for global growth thank you so that we continue oscillating and to the young woman here on the day of the wind yes please pilot hello my name is Yolanda Morales I am from Mexico in the economist a newspaper I want to know your perspective for Mexico now that we have a new president who has different ways of running the economy.

Thank you, Mexico. We have revised downward our growth for Mexico for both 2019 and 2020, both relative to last October. and last January there is acombination of factors so that monetary policy has been stricter than previously expected and the second has to do with politics and certainty around the policies of the new government and that is weighing on investment so this would continue to be a factor. especially political uncertainty would continue to be an important factor in the future for Mexico's growth prospects. I'm going to give the floor to Jan María. He maybe he wants to add something.

Yes, clearly Mexico has also been affected in the last two years. For years, trade tensions with the United States have been largely resolved, but the trade agreement has not been ratified, resulting in pressures on the exchange rate that have in turn led to tighter monetary policy. , which is one of the factors that has been weighing on the economy. Growth, but clearly uncertainty is an important factor, also on the domestic front. Gaeta just emphasized, thank you, thank you, so let's keep moving the gentleman in the second row, yes, please, sir, yes, Allen Larry Elliot from the Guardian.

Some alternative scenarios to Brexit in Rio that speak of a fairly significant deviation downwards from the baseline. How serious do you think are the risks of the agreement not being broken and what would be the consequences of this? The situation is clearly changing like all of us. We know this on a daily basis, so it is difficult to predict where all this will end, but what we have seen is that we have seen the negative consequences of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, which has weighed on investment in the UK and is a factors for our downward revision or growth for 2019 for the UK, we have also made our estimates of the long-term impact of a Brexit OD that would mean a backslide on WTO tariff rules and they are quite substantial in the order of magnitude of around 6% for the UK and around half a percent for the EU, so these are large effects.

We hope there is an agreement soon. We're all watching events as they unfold, but it's a little difficult to predict right now where everything is headed. Thanks Kita, so I'll answer two more questions on this side and then we'll go back to FA in the third row. Thank you very much Alexa. a family effort, you have cut your forecast for Latin America for this year by 0.6%, in both Brazil and Mexico, the forecast has been revised downwards and the situation in Venezuela continues to worsen, so what is your general opinion about the region? So the region as a whole knows that the last half of 28:18 was weak and a lot of that will carry over into 2019, so we have revised down our estimates for Brazil and Mexico, of course, the reasons are different.

In both cases, in the case of Mexico, the combination of political uncertainty and tightening of monetary policy in Brazil is due to political uncertainty and the postponement of some reforms on the fiscal front for Venezuela, of course, it is a major humanitarian crisis of a social type. economic crisis, etc., we are seeing a very important contraction for Venezuela. Everyone who knows him would like to add something now, as Peter said, for Venezuela it is very difficult to make predictions right now and it is a humanitarian crisis, a food crisis, a medicine crisis. The concern is that oil production is plummeting and that has led to our downgrade for that country.

Thank you, so we're going to answer one last question on this and we'll go back to the second row. Bloomberg, please. Hello, Andrew Maya from Bloomberg News, can you talk? a little bit more about your forecast for the US economy, do you know to what extent do you think fiscal stimulus is going to be eased and then specifically on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, to what extent do you think your positioning is appropriate for many people who are weighing in on that recently, including the President of the United States, so the US economy in our approach will slow down in 2019 and then slow down a little more in 2020, this It is to be expected as an effect of the fiscal stimulus. fades and that is one of the important reasons for the decline, at the same time the more accommodative monetary policy stance is helping growth in 2020.

To your question on monetary policy I want to say that we fully support the view that any bank The central office takes the data into account. -Dependent approach that is well communicated, so depending on the data that emerges, I think it is important to respond with the path of interest rates, thank you, so we will come back here, the lady in the orange jacket just behind yesterday. Hello, my name is Leah and I am from Nigeria. I wonder how trade will affect sub-Saharan Africa in 2019. Thanks for sub-Saharan Africa. There is the impact that comes from the trade wars, but there is also an impact of the trade war on global growth which then extends to oil prices, for example for Nigeria, the important price that does matter, what is happening to the commodity prices and if due to trade tensions there is going to be a weakening in global growth that may have a larger negative effect would you like to add something like sub-Saharan Africa?

No, absolutely, it is commodity prices that are weakening due to somewhat weaker global activity and also direct demand. Thanks to the lady here in the fourth row in the middle, say Mohammed from Egypt, you mentioned a lot of risks going forward, what are the main risks for emerging markets? Among them, Egypt. Thank you. Well, trade tensions are clearly a more open option, particularly for the more open economies of the emerging world. It would be a direct effect. There is an indirect effect through the market sentiment that we saw towards the beginning. There is in the middle of last year a market sentiment that is moving away from emerging economies that has caused substantial outflows, particularly of short-term capital from the more vulnerable economies, those are clearly very important Risks I think that the risk of conflicts and geopolitical conflicts should also be highlighted more generally, which, unfortunately, still affect several countries, especially in the emerging world, and have a very high cost, first of all in humanitarian terms, but also in terms of aggregate growth.

As Geeta just mentioned, of course, for countries that are more reliant on commodities and, again, predominantly in the emerging world, weaker global growth and particularly weaker demand from China could be associated with weaker prices. low commodity prices, which could put additional pressure on the current accounts and public finances of many emerging economies, these are just some of the possible downside risks we could see, thank you, so we're back to the front row here , gentlemen, yes, please, yes, that's Barry Barry Wood, sorry, Barry Wood. RTHK and Hong Kong miss Gopinath as he lists the factors that have contributed to the significant weakening of the global economy and trade.

How would you distribute them? It is mainly trade and tariffs between the United States and China that have led to that slowdown. The trade tension between the United States and China is a contributing factor, but there have been other factors, for example, in China for much of 2018, the most important factor was the adjustment and the credit that was needed because greater regulation of a shadow banking sector, so before March 2018 that was a driver for China, trade. The conflict does not develop until the end of 2018, the other important factors have also been specific to each country, so for Germany the decline had to do with the automotive sector, with the new emissions standards that were in Japan, there were some natural disasters. disasters and that also weighed on growth, but that, but the general sentiment and concerns about the trade conflict have weighed on business confidence and consumer confidence and that has affected more countries than just the two here So I think that's an important factor to take into account, especially in terms of, as I mentioned before, that there needs to be a lasting solution to commercial attentions and ensuring that it doesn't escalate to other sectors.

Thanks kita, so let's have one. more questions from this side the trial the first paper yes please hello Ricardo power instead miss kita could you give us a little idea of ​​how important this social security is now in Brazil because you said you mentioned some of the reasons for the degradation of the Brazilian social security The projection of two point five to two point one this year is a kind of postponement of this fiscal reform, that is why in your projections for Brazil the Brazilian economy 2019 2020 you considered that the social security reform is going to be approved by Congress this year.

It is very important to have the appropriate level of social security for the most vulnerable population in any country. Of course, it has to be fiscally prudent and in the case of Brazil, in fact, the debt levels are somewhat unsustainable and would therefore require pension reforms that have been postponed until 2019. It is difficult for us to say the exact date, when, when and when it will be implemented, so it is difficult for us to forecast at this time, but we hope for some resolution. in the next year or so, that's right, we expect it to happen sometime in 2019 and what we've done is shifted the growth from 2019 to 2020 a little bit because of that.

Thanks, oh yeah, I'm going to back up then. to the middle row here, so I'm going to back up to the gentleman in the purple shirt, yeah, right there. Hi Jason Lange from Reuters, you mentioned in the report that China might need to adopt fiscal stimulus to avoid a serious recession that could derail its reform agenda, how much fiscal stimulus beyond what is currently contemplated, at least publicly known, do they need apply and how critical is the risk of that severe recession? Thank you, in our forecast we expect China to continue to be slow, you know it's a gradual weakening of growth but to be expected, it's a necessary transition from very high investment driven growth fueled by a credit boom to one that is more sustainable and it will mean credit weakening and credit growth that will deleverage everyone.

Of those factors that we expect will slow growth. I mean, the Chinese government has implemented a substantial amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus. We are already seeing some green shoots in terms of recovery if you look at the latest China Manufacturing PMI. The figures show that there has been some recovery there, so we are already seeing positive signs. What would be needed in the most serious crisis would of course depend on the nature of the problems, but you know exactly. It would be very difficult for us to comment on the numbers at the moment, thank you, so let's get back to the mineral, the gentleman from the brown jacket, yes sir, yes, please, thank you very much.

Marlin, modern, barbaric, today, could you give us an evaluation? for the Caribbean region please and given that most of our economies are on the verge of becoming independent and if you could single out Barbados, we are currently on an IMF programme, what is your outlook? So for the Caribbean we always have diversity, we have more commodity dependent economies and they have economies that are less dependent on commodities and more dependent on tourism. This last group is doing somewhat better. Their prospects are usually tied to advanced economies, so there has been some slowdown, but overall growth is stronger.

Those who depend on commodities are still in the process of adjusting to the economy. lower commodity prices, some of them oil prices for Barbados, we have an IMF program so the outlook is for activity to strengthen a little with confidence building as the program is implemented. It is essential that this happens to return to positive growth in 2020, that the objectives are met and the reforms are implemented consistently thanks. I'm going to come to the front row here, yes sir, right on the accent and grease of the tannaz coke gentlemen in their report, to be precise now, they significantly changed their estimates on Greece's current account deficit.

He believes that, according to his report, it will be five times greater than what he projected seven months ago. Is this related to the climate environment in the eurozone and the pressures on experts in the region? It all has to do with the legacy of the class. what the country needs to happen is a combination of factors, I understand that there were some data revisions that also contributed to increasing the current account, we have had a resumption of growth, which is good, but it tends to increase demand for imports, but I think that literally, there are also statistical issues at play that have to do with data reviews.

Thank you. I'm going to answer a question online before I go to the right side of the room, so the question is about the MENA region.Did you check the IMF? its growth forecast for the MENA region and the UAE in particular, yes, if we compare what we forecast in October with what we forecast now, we see that particularly for 2019 there is a considerable difference in the predictions for the previous price in October. Still, we expected, based on futures prices, that oil prices would be around $70 a barrel in 2019, they are more than $10 lower and now, and that, of course, implies a downward revision for exporters of oil in general, now that there are two categories of oil exporters.

There are some who, as you know, suffer from a variety of other factors, including geopolitical tensions and conflict. This is clearly not the case for the UAE, but we have a downward revision driven, they said, by the lower oil price, it is about a percentage. point a little less than a percentage point below the revision for 2019 and a little less for 2020, so the forecast is for growth to be just below 3% for 2019, around 3% in 2020, but, of course, again oil price agreements to limit oil. production to support prices for 2019 and, more generally, weakening global demand are the main factors at play.

Thanks, Jim, right? So I'm going to go to the second row here in the middle, lady in black, yes please, hello, Grace Blakely from the New Statesman in the UK and to what extent do you think the financial markets have factored in the risks? associated with climate change and also the kind of weakening of other environmental systems or are we facing what some called a carbon bubble and to what extent have we taken into account that in this year climate changes are clearly a risk important in the medium term, it seems to be getting closer, as each month passes it is a major risk for low-income countries, in fact, it is one. of the risks that we point out and that need to be addressed urgently when we have seen natural disasters around the world and those that negatively affect growth are occurring, so this is a very important factor in the future, you know, there is a attempt to incorporate some of These risks when it comes to thinking about the forecast going forward, I mean not just us but the major central banks around the world, there is a sense of looking at crisis resilience in the face of risk climate or the crisis, as they take into account the risks that come from the climate, that is also something new that we are seeing these days, but we hope that it will continue in the coming years.

Thank you, so let's move the lady in the room with the gray jacket to this side, yes, front row, yes. please hello, my name is Ginoza from Pakistan. I'm interested in the Central Asia region, what kind of restoration challenges do you see in that region? Thanks, yes, it sure is a very differentiated picture in Central Asia, so you have economies like Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan that depend heavily on oil prices, whose prospects, of course, are greatly affected by what happens with the raw material prices. There are economies like Pakistan, which have a more different set of different types of dependence on raw materials, more cotton exports, for example, but also a fairly broad opening and reforms of the economy and the growth forecast of around 5 % so again the picture is quite different between countries and depends largely on what happens with the price of their main exports, as well as issues of, you know, internal stability and internal external conflicts, in some cases, thanks Mario, so let's answer two more questions. to bring the gentleman in the white shirt right there in the second row yes please and then we will talk to you secular about there my name is misaki-kun Luigi Press from Japan my question is in brackets there is a question before but I think it is a short-term risk.

Let me ask you again. There is an analysis in table one and then you put the canary moderating scenario or A and B and the most serious scenario. I don't see the scenario of serious cases. Can you explain how much negative? impact that I would expect and then the second question, if I may again, I would like to ask your opinion, modern married, modern monetary family, um tea, thank you very much, um, in the analysis that we did for Brexit, we looked at two possible no-deal scenarios. , the difference. They both had to do with whether in the short term there would be disruptions at the border and how severe the financial disruptions would be, so scenario B, which is a war scenario, is one where we have disruptions in Bala in the short term and we know that more financial stress manifests itself in higher credit spreads, you know, the numbers tell you that relative to our baseline, we are seeing a three to four percentage point reduction in GDP now again , we just have to reiterate that the environment is changing rapidly and so you know the scenarios may be different, but maybe that's what we have right now to your question about modern monetary theory.

I mean, I'll start by saying that we think there's an important role for fiscal policy in macro stabilization for redistribution for equity considerations, so fiscal policy is a very important part of the toolkit for policymakers now. that say there is no free lunch, there are limits to how much countries can spend using monetary financing to In the past attempts have been made to finance fiscal deficits in many developed and developing countries and experience suggests that this usually ends with inflation out of control with the collapse of investment with the collapse of growth, so I think it is very important. be, while fiscal policy is a powerful tool.

I think it is very important to be careful with the financing that is used for this and it is history that has taught us the value of central bank independence to maintain stable economies and we believe that that is also an important lesson. to note Thank you Gita so we will have time for two more questions so I will start with the gentleman here in the front row thank you a two part question if I can answer the first one. Monetary policy, secondly, fiscal policy, on the monetary policy side. I think we go into this year expecting to see quantitative tightening or a resumption of normalization by central banks, as you mentioned in your comments, which has not been seen and, in fact, we have seen. more easing by central banks and I'm wondering if in your outlook going into 2021 and beyond that, how do you take into account the potential stress of the extension of this unorthodox monetary policy that we're seeing? continue to the second question on On the fiscal side, we've seen that democracies are finding it increasingly difficult to pass regulations to pass more things like stimulus.

We have also seen a rise of leaders like López Obrador, Juan Guerra and Turkey, and a couple more, both in our own Brazil, as you have mentioned how those things influence your prospects both short and long term. Thank you for your question about monetary policy. In fact, there has been a twist in the air with the Federal Reserve with the pause and the rate expectation. increase in 2019 and that is a major event that we believe has removed some of the downside risks that were building towards the end of 2018, so the pause that depended on the data was welcome;

In fact, it is the case that we have to look at Moving forward and seeing how this develops will again depend on the data that comes in if we achieve the recovery that we are projecting for 2020, which could change the political stance. This policy certainly has a net resumption of capital flows to emerging markets, so there has been a positive impact there, I mean, there has been some resumption, not a tremendous resumption with some resumption, but I think it's important to keep in mind Keep in mind that we still live in an environment with high levels of public and private sector debt, so financial vulnerabilities exist. that are still there and continuing to accumulate, so our advice is to use macroprudential tools at this stage to ensure that they remain contained.

Fiscal policy is a very important part of our assumptions that we make going forward. Both the short and long term vary by country. You know it's country-specific. In some ways, the space that I'm not in, the politics are very important, but it's a very important part when you're trying to make projections. about what is going to happen with growth both in the short and medium term, thank you Gita, so let's answer one last question from the gentleman and the front row, yes, please, thank you. I'm Michael Ignatieff of all PTV. Greece, but my question is about Türkiye.

There is a lot of information that Türkiye is going to knock on the IMF's door in the summer. Can you tell us what your prediction is and whether the IMF has the money to save Turkey, a Turkish economy? Thank you. I mean we have no reason to think that Turkey is even considering going to the IMF, so that's where we are right now. The Turkish economy is certainly under strain. They have used tightening monetary policy to contain the effects on inflation and inflation. In terms of the exchange rate, we have certainly seen an improvement in their trade balance, so net exports have grown and this has been mainly driven by a compression of imports and less by exports in Turkey, so we are seeing some adjustments, but I mean our The forecast for Turkey is that this year there will be negative growth, but then we expect a recovery in 2020 and, in fact, this recovery is an important part of the element that contributes to the entire global recovery.

I would like to thank you very much for being here, thanks to the speakers, tomorrow we have two press conferences, the global financial stability report and the fiscal monitor, so see you tomorrow, thank you very much.