Porsche 911 996 Prices are Out of Control | Carrera Depreciation and Buying GuideJun 09, 2021
What's up YouTube and welcome to a new video? Three weeks ago I showed you a market update for the 911 997 market and I received many requests to do the same for the 996 market. The 997 generation is one of the most popular 911s and a lot of people. You are wondering if price hunting in that market also translates to the 996 market and if you are among those people, then you have come to the right place. I'll show you, in a data-driven way, what happened to 96 stocks over the past year. and how this price change relates to some of the other cars, as always let's start with the market overview before looking at the price changes.
Here we have the US market, the model year is shown on the horizontal axis and the price is shown on the vertical axis. Each car is shown with a bubble and the average price points are indicated with the black axis. So what do we have here? Well, first of all, you can see that there are 105 cars for sale and this number only includes the Carrera and Carrera as models as well. You can see that the average price is 33,000, but
pricesvary greatly for these cars. The oldest high mileage examples cost as little as $16,500, but the most expensive ones will set you back $65,000, and of course, a lot of this price difference can be explained by the difference between the base Carrera and Carrera S models, so let's identify that now you can see that the s models are much newer and also much more expensive and the s model will cost you forty eight. thousand dollars and this is eighteen thousand dollars more than the base model, okay, but what about the differences between manuals and automatics then?
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porsche 911 996 prices are out of control carrera depreciation and buying guide...
Let's take a look at that too. The manual ones are a little more expensive, but as you can see from the chart. There's not much to it, they tend to be three grand more expensive, but they also have slightly lower mileage, so I wouldn't put much stock in that difference, at least not at this aggregate level. Well, now we know what the market looks like and all. It means it's time to take a look at price changes. Now we have the date on the horizontal axis and the price on the vertical axis and we can see that the entire market went up in price, but not just any price increase, a 40 percent increase, it is also not surprising that this increase is confirmed statistically, for This means that it is unlikely to be the result of chance.
Naturally this means that the price increase is passed on to all cars on the market of all model years and mileage increased in value now, if we look at the absolute values we can see that the average price of a 906 was 23.5 000 in June 2020 and that now, a year later, the average price reached 33,000, which represents an increase of nine and a half. thousand dollars and if I remember correctly, this price increase is more or less the same as in the 997 market and maybe even a little more. Now we will try to find out if there is a certain market segment that is driving this increase.
Is that so, for example? that the assets increased more than the base models or maybe it is the manual of assets that are driving the increase after all this car is promoted frequently on social media that and more is what we will discover now, but before we continue, If you like this data driven way of analyzing car markets, please support this channel by hitting the like button, thanks now, so let's start with the obvious question: did the S models increase more than the base models in orange? Now we have the price evolution for the S model and then blue for the base model, we can see that both cars increased in value but also that this increase is a little greater for the S models that increased with 15,500 dollars or 47, well this is 8 000 or 36 for the base model, so the developments here seem quite similar, but the reason for the price increase is also the same.
That is, you can observe the price increase from various perspectives. Is there, for example, a difference between coupes and convertibles, automatics and manuals? maybe even between two and four wheel drive cars, all that and more I already reviewed and, to my surprise, there was no important factor in the price, all market segments rose in price and this does not happen so often. often if, for example, If we look only at the base market, we can see that there is very little difference between manuals and automatics, coupes and carburetors and the generation 9s6.1 and 9s6.2, automatics rose with seven thousand five hundred dollars, while this is seven point five thousand dollars for the manuals and this means that the relative increase is more or less the same for the automatics this is 39 for the manuals this is 31 now if you look very closely you can also see that the Coupes maybe increased a little more than the cabriolet, but the differences are really small here now.
I even inspected this data at a more granular level and this revealed that, in fact, all model years and all mileage groups went up in price. I also did the same for 4, but that market is so small that you can't really trust any of the breakdowns; There are simply too few observations in each market segment to say anything reliable about pricing, so overall this is very good news if you're an owner. of a 996, but as with many things there may be a caveat here, usually seen when cars increase in value, their sensitivity to increasing mileage, we all know these crazy stories of cars losing a lot of money when driven just slightly. take a look at the
depreciationcurve per thousand miles to see if this also applies to the 906 market here we have the relationship between mileage and price for the base market and s on two different dates in orange, we have May 2021 and then blue the June 2020.
Now, as you can see, the orange curve is above the blue one because
priceswent up, but as far as mileage sensitivity is concerned, you can see that there is hardly any change after all, the slopes of the curves are quite Similarly, currently
depreciationper thousand miles is 0.5 percent for both the Model S and the base model and, in absolute numbers, this equates to $270 and $200 per thousand miles driven . Also, both are pretty low if you compare them to other cars, so I think we can conclude that the increase in value didn't really affect the mileage sensitivity, but there's more: this graph reveals some additional things about the price change.
First, you can see that in the reduced base market offering there were 204 cars for sale. a year ago versus just 81 now and this of course could have helped the price increase. Now, secondly, you can see that, especially in the s market, the average mileage decreased. All cars on the market today have less than 90,000 miles, which means the average price. The increase I showed you before was too optimistic after all lower mileage cars are generally priced higher now. If we correct for the difference in mileage, then the price increase decreased from fifteen point five thousand dollars that I showed you before to fourteen point eight. thousand dollars and I'd say it's still more than decent.
Finally, this chart also reveals something about the nature of the price increase in the base market. We can see that it is especially the market button that increased. There are almost no cars priced under $20,000. While supply was quite high there a year ago, the top of the market remained more or less intact, there are some outliers, but the highest price for a given mileage remained more or less unchanged and all this contrasts with the market there, we can clearly see a more significant change: the market bottom for a given mileage now sits around the market high from a year ago, so in fact the price increase is more significant here.
Well, now we are fully up to date on the 996 market prices increased and increased a lot, so let's compare this increase now with some other cars so we can see exactly how high it is. Let's start with the obvious comparison with market 997. The chart here now shows the development for market 996.1 and 997.1.2 and you. You can see that they are almost identical from top to bottom the cars increased with 8 11 13 and 12 000 dollars and also relatively these numbers are very close except for the 997.2 which one increased with 22 percent while it is 36 for the 996.1 38 for the 9s 6.2 and 35 for the 9s 7.1, all this confirms that the market is really on fire and that we are not looking for any one-time effects.
Also, the 986 and 997 markets are some of the car markets that are up Most, let me show you this chart here that shows some of the cars that are discussed on the channel, but only the ones that are up five percent or more during the last period. Now it's not a perfect overview because the increases are not based on the same dates, but it gives a rough estimate. Now on the left side you can find cars like the 981 gts and the Ferrari 360. These are up around five percent, but look what we have on the right side, some cars that clearly stand out. of the rest and these are almost all 9s6 or 997, so I think it's fair to say that the 911 and especially these generations are still one of the most popular sports cars and with that let's finish and conclude, I said it many. times and I will repeat it again 996 values are increasing, there are only a few markets that saw such a huge price increase and where the increase also spread to the entire market, literally all market segments in the 906 market went up Furthermore, the only other market that comes close in terms of value development is the 997 market now, according to the most recent videos in which I show you these price developments.
I am often asked what will happen to these prices after the pandemic, after all, much of this increase is the result of an increase. In my opinion, disposable income has very little to do with restricting the supply of new cars. Now the answer to this question has many aspects and I should probably dedicate an entire video to it for now, however, let me say that I think the value. development will be more stable than what we have seen over the last year in many countries, lives are slowly returning to normal so support could cool down a bit and new 9sx owners won't suddenly sell their cars that just ended to buy. a few months ago, so the supply should also be relatively stable, but as I mentioned, these are just some initial thoughts, but with these thoughts we come to the end of the video now, if you watched the entire video and thought, well, that was great , but actually I would.
I would have liked to see it for a different car, leave the name of that car in the comments section. Once there are enough requests for a given car, I'll make a video about it. Don't forget to subscribe and click the notification button. So you will receive a notification when the requested analysis is published. Also, I may have already analyzed the car, so head on over to my channel and see what depreciation analyzes are already out there, as always, thanks for watching and I look forward to seeing. next week for a new video that
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