Podcast: Tesla impresses with earnings/roadmap disappoints, new Cybertruck prototype, moreMar 16, 2022
two one and we're live for a new episode of the electric
podcasti'm fred lambert your host and as usual i'm joined by seth wintrough coming back from california from the ground up for some easy test drives how's it going seth i'm good so We're going to talk about those two vehicles later in the show, but let's jump to the biggest news in the world of Eevee this week and that was Tesla's
roadmapupdate. it came with it and all of that and how it was perceived by the marquette and each of the bits and pieces that we think are the most important but let's jump to the actual
earningsresult first because on that front
teslathe pace of expectation of both revenue and of earnings per share so not much to complain about for investors in terms of the result in q4 17 billion uh 17.1 billion was the average earnings expectation for Wall Street and Tesla delivered 17.7 so significant 600 exceeded 1 million of dollars there and earnings per share while I was expecting 2.30
tesladelivered 2.54 which is not earnings but still generated over 2 billion dollars of net earnings over the last quarter for a total of 5.5 billion in 2021 and one thing that was.
The really interesting thing to point out here is that the $5.5 billion they made in 2021 is enough to cover all their losses early on, so for a long time po of course Tesla was not profitable in the last two years or that changed and now this has been consistently profitable marginally profitable they are not focused on making a ton of money because they are reinvesting a lot of money all the time huh specifically this year they had 6.5k million capex for new factories so they spent 6.5 billion on future growth so if they didn't have to do that and they just like to exist as a stable business they would be making uh uh over 10 billion dollars a year and i think elon said on the call that they are now a real company yeah so that's something to celebrate yeah i mean they were already worth a trillion dollars before they did that but i think that makes them real too, but I mean you're right, you're right there, uh, so these two billion dollars of uh profitability, uh, is that it was achieved with a very successful fourth quarter gross margin of 30.6, uh, 29.2 yes and xcludes regulatory credits which, uh, you know, this has always been an argument, a talking point for uh for the shorts always ah tesla wouldn't make any money if it wasn't for the government subsidizing their vehicles that's not true uh it's part of his business but as you can see here it's a little over one percent of the gross profit on his car so nothing crazy ann cash up by 1.7 1.5 billion dollars in qr and q4 so now tesla has 17.6 billion dollars in cash huh and bitcoin i guess soon and i'll include the inclusion that in uh they lost a little bit of money and in that last quarter and then uh yeah i mean that's the oh yeah a thing i thought was also really interesting is uh they revealed it in q4 uh they had a massive 340 million dollar payroll tax expense on the muscus compensation plan in 2012 one that has been exercising is uh it's a option like uh like crazy about e last uh i think most of them were last quarter uh you know this idea that he would sell ten percent of his uh of his stake in tesla uh which of course was mostly related to a pre-approved stock option plan , so there was $340 million just because of that, so it just affected earnings significantly also because, again, Tesla made about two billion dollars in that quarter, so they could have made $340 million or
moreif uh Jamie had a nice slack point on that too when it was announced that it was like he had to disclose in his online earnings that one of his employees is paid so much that it negatively affected only one of them. the employees get paid so much it negatively affected their bottom line uh they probably overpay you a little bit yeah it helps when your brother and all his friends are on the board and they are winning yeah but at the same time since he's not here to defend himself yeah keep in mind there were many years where elon didn't get paid to like the way his comp plan is set up his results and things like that where he has all the options exercising at the same time so he in a single I'm not looking at it's still a lot of money either way like talk billions of dollars here it's paying off but it's the way it's set up as well I mean, even if it was like a perfectly even plan. as hourly wage i would still rank as one of the highest paid people in the world if not the most um yea i mean tesla in the presentation um q4 they focus a lot on their financial result for the quarter of the year um 2021 full year but in terms of guidan Ce they decided to stick to 50 average year-over-year growth for the foreseeable future, which we know is pretty vague because if you look at, for example, right here in deliveries, it grew 87 percent in um in 20 , I missed it here. those are the deliveries, yes, all year round. 87 percent of deliveries grew in 2021 so 50 is an average over time now during the post launch call for the presentation elon said he is confident it will go over 50 this year but they didn't want to say nothing
morethan that, um, so that's something to keep in mind and it's probably what negatively affected subsequent stocks because again, like I said, it's all good news numbers-wise, it's all outpacing expectations, it's all looks good, but even though it's exceeding expectations, Tesla has exceeded expectations these days and people were looking more at what it's going to look like in 2022, 50+ is already what people expected. so this doesn't help much so i think what really hit tesla bad after that was mostly the announcement that whatever it was ended up being the product
roadmapupdate which i think It's not exactly what we expected when it was announced. not at all in fact it was probably the opposite like I think we were expecting something and got absolutely nothing yeah in short the product roadmap update was that tesla won't be launching any new vehicles in 2022 and for In fairness, the reasoning behind it makes sense and it's not 100 Tesla's fault.
More Interesting Facts About,
podcast tesla impresses with earnings roadmap disappoints new cybertruck prototype more...
Ilan said that technically even if they were to release a new vehicle like the cyber truck, which is the top new vehicle that is always expected to be released this year and they would not produce any more vehicles in total. in terms of volume because there are bottlenecks in the supply chain of other products for a long time proves that it was the battery cells that were a bottleneck in the supply chain elon made it clear that the shortage of chips is still an issue and even though they plan to grow in 2022 they plan to grow with the model 3 and model y again and then i'll take on a few more s and x's and not bring in a new vehicle due to the production ramp of that vehicle would be ender by uh because of the shortage of chips and I mean you specifically mentioned that she fired it multiple times but you made it sound like it's a bit broader than that though not the cells at least not by 2022. do expect to have battery cell limitations again in the future maybe next year but right now the chip shortage is the real problem so for the cyber truck that confirmed it's a day late for 2023 this has been rumored before it e tesla announced that daily officially which would be early 2023 elon didn't say anything he said hopefully next year which is not the safest way to say next year so i mean i hope tesla is really pushing themselves to do this next year and hopefully in the first half. next year but the timeline itself was pretty vague and not very encouraging yeah to me it actually sounded like they didn't know how to make the cyber truck cost anywhere near what they had previously set you know he said something in the sense of we don't know we haven't figured out yet how to make it cost what people would pay as if they could do it they can do it now but it would be so expensive most people couldn't afford it and it certainly wouldn't be what people expected in their reservations but yeah i mean it's a problem like it's been months since this will remove prices and specs from the cyber truck order page and website with the way elon was framing things for the update from this product roadmap it looked like we were going to get the updated version of those but as you said I think that's the exact word in the um on the call there was a lot of technology coming in in the cyber truck and we know how to do it its to bring people in a big vehicle but we have to do that we have to balance so it's not too expensive so obviously there's a concern for them so they're going to try to make this happen but you did it just like tesla has gotten into a really good habit of releasing concept vehicles that are very close to the production version they are already priced on specs and have been pretty good at saying those specs are close Of the prices.
To a certain extent, I mean there was some shenanigans with the models and you know, the 40 kilowatt hour package that was in the software crash and then the model 3, the 35,000 version was short lived and hard to come by, but still i like this show. It ended up being very successful and I still think the program is going to be very successful for the cyber truck, although for this cyber truck I mean we've been calling it a race to electrify the electric truck industry in the United States and it owns the electric vehicle industry in the US like most EVs sold in the US or tesla right now, but it's still not a big part of the overall auto market in the US because the Pickup trucks are a big part of the auto market so until they go electric there's not going to be mass adoption of electric vehicles uh in the US and in North America there's also Canada in a similar situation though maybe not be as heavy as in the US so if you want to be a big player in the auto industry through the electrification of the industry in the US you have to have power picked up in the market ASAP as best as possible in as much volume as possible now that tesla has been beaten to market by reviewing for sure it looks like it's clearly going to be beaten to market by ford with the lightning f150 tesla looked like it still had a chance to beat those two companies in volume production because no one is better at tesla than producing mass volume electric vehicles than tesla but with this cement announcement it now seems less and less likely that is going to happen so something to keep in mind when looking at this turnout list of market in the US but the cyber truck would have been a big deal on that front and unfortunately it didn't happen yeah and especially since ford is selling fleet owners a uh forty thousand dollar version of the uh f-150 lightning, i feel like that's something that kind of that can scale quite a bit and then obviously ford has been saying they can double and then double again their production so which i think ford is like i don't want to say they're all in because they know they also say that by 2030 they'll only be like half ev but it looks like they're ready to grow in ev and they're talking numbers like six hundred thousand a year for 2024, I think so, I think that's it. but then whats the 150 but yeah thats sta Sure there will be significant volumes yeah no its sad to see this is slipping a bit on that front but I mean it makes sense that they already produce more atp than anyone and they're limited with some of their supply right now including chip shortages so they just don't have that to produce a cyber truck hopefully what tesla does is they set things up in gigafactory to exist and ready to go produce the cyber truck and the largest volume possible. and they ramp up production to 4680 cells and figure all of that out apparently like wild tech that they plan to throw in that truck so that once the supply is there, uh, they can ramp up quickly in 2023 hopefully to quote Elon but speaking of gigafactory texas there were some more details on the mother and so earlier this week uh that was last week when i was doing the last
podcastwe reported that tesla was aiming to deliver the first model and from gigafactory tak it's right at the end of quarter uh tesla confirmed that in the call that was the goal uh draw baguino said that the new model of 4680 cell battery pack and it is going to come out at the end of the quarter delivered at the end of the quarter they already confirmed that they started production of them , they started the first build at the end of 2021, so they stayed true to that timeline, but now they are waitinginstead of a car that they are going to drive themselves and it will cost twenty thousand dollars.
The lessons will probably make a big difference on that, too. Most of the value will be in a super type fleet, yeah okay so this is interesting. I have feedback from Linkedin, so if they want to log in through Linkedin in the future, I don't even know that we could do that. a blade or two smaller blades under the arm from what we've seen it's just one blade and one giant but again apparently that's not the one that will be in the production version so not worth talking too much Adam Wilcox asks any predictions when evs will go back to regular prices or at least MSRP some dealers will sell them to you at MSRP you just have to shop around sadly not an ideal situation some of them have committed to don't flag them because of the huge clogs in the order bar just take advantage of that but dealership models allow them to do that so if they didn't say no then say ok I'll go somewhere else when they will come back?
I mean it's a problem with new ev launchers and in terms of markup if you're talking about regular price because prices have been going up because of supply chain issues it looks like at least next year but on the markup side that's mostly for a new vehicle launch where the allocation to the dealer is pretty low and there's already quite a backlog of orders so they can afford to mark them down significantly that will be the case for the foreseeable future I think it's ok to move on maybe I missed it but you guys didn't talk about the Chevy Bolt maybe discontinued well we talk about it quite often it seems like nothing has been GM refused to confirm nothing yet but it's starting to look more and more like the equinox ev and the blazer ev will just take over and it's not that it's not in the ltcm system anymore so it's going to die it's pretty much too he has a pretty bad reputation at this point so people don't really help yeah i want to get um so yeah there was some news this week that um gm uh had the uh orion factory slated for a big upgrade and there it is where the uh bolt is made and they didn't say anything about it so its just another nail in the coffin i think of another question do you think the cyber truck is becoming another model x with too much technology huh just a point on that huh we talked with a tesla executive tesla ex tesla executive who told us that elon was taking over the project or he he was like microm managing the cyber truck product project the same way he micromanaged the model x projects so it seems like that project is becoming a bit like it knows they're doing too much with it, they're doing it too. well too big too crazy um so i dont know whats cool with you playing devils advocate here sounds like that for sure but it seems like elon learned his lessons from the mall he acts on that front like its something he brings a lot to himself yeah yeah so you would think he learned his lessons but like you said we heard it from a good source and if he's doing it I'm assuming he thinks because he can afford it because they can't deliver it in volume until at least next year because of the supply chain issue so it's okay if we can't do it in significant volume right now let's do the best we can with some new tech because it's not going to be phased out anyway so that might be a good poi isn't it maybe like that which is like where he does it best um but you can also go overboard with that you might like it ok we have time so let's do some nifty things with that and everything and then oh I really like cu and when we can really bring this to volume production there are some things that are going to be hard to scale and do and nike and it seems to be what's happening because he even talked about the affordability of the truck as well it's like maybe there's some things he thought he could get into the program which now is like its going to be expensive ok the big question is how much will fsd be in the end he keeps talking about value but what if no one can afford it I mean, now it's twelve thousand Canadian dollars. uh it can be usd so yeah some people can but i don't know it's like the taxi uh medallions they are like you know a quarter of a million dollars and uh of course nobody can afford them but there were questions from a shareholder during the metro we met yesterday that uh or wednesday which i thought made a lot of sense where as if it was something that this has been written for is like turning it into a software ground detection product where you just buy the software from the licensor and then you can put whatever product you want on it so if you change cars and things like that that's something owners because this has a lot of returning owners like us included here and like we're talking about at least two issues like this makes it hard for me to like commit to a complete autonomous driving package so if you make it a license product you can make it a commercial license as well and make it a lot more cost I cough if you want to use it in a car that will be used in the carpool type of service that makes a lot of sense but elon said this was too complicated he said like he said we'll only charge you fifty grand for it and that almost sounded like you didn't say fifty grand but i feel like that's where things are hidden yeah ok last question with the rebuild better in limbo will tesla still open up their charging network in 2022? his response was he didn't think tesla was going to have any extra space you know really to build superchargers just to try to keep up with tesla traffic so jit farley said that wasn't you I know to bet on that it was interesting information.
I think he's right for the most part and also Nettie references the fact that the blueback bidder actually acts no no no actually that's not true that was the infrastructure yes that was a previous infrastructure bill that it has already been approved, so that is already true, uh, that is already in place, so we do not need the reconstruction, better act to work for that, so that clause is already in place in the bill of infrastructure that says that in order to get access to financing for a new charging station, the $7.5 billion that is unlocking the charging station you build needs to be open to vehicles from more than one manufacturer, so that spurred speculation that tesla is opening up the network because that is still finished i think huh but yeah i mean right now there are only a few stations in the netherlands thats the same as the way i see it being developed to the program I think it's going to be slow growing outside of Europe and maybe by the end of the year in the US but I think it's going to be something more for next year yes early days yes it's ok that's it ok thanks everyone for listening thanks so much for watching on youtube if you're watching right now and you like the show give us a thumbs up it's free and the algorithm loves it and also if you do you're watching on Facebook, you can also if you're listening to it on your podcast app. being able to give us a five star review which would be greatly appreciated only if you like the show of course I am not forcing you to do anything you are your own bus but we appreciate it and it helps the show tremendously. that's all for us this week we'll meet at the same time in the same place next week
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