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Gottlieb: Japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak

Feb 20, 2020
more details now on the corona virus

outbreak

the number of confirmed cases has risen to over 73,000 the death toll is over 1800 for the latest on

coronavirus

fears and the impact on public health and business welcome to dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, now a CNBC contributor, sits on the boards of Pfizer and Illumina. Scott, it's good to see you this morning. Thanks for joining us again. It should be twice a week, three times a week. some numbers have come up that you've been able to see with your eye in terms of predispositions and mortality rates and if there are genetic factors involved who you get it with and who is able to handle it more if you dig into that data and you have things you didn't know less than the last time you were or being told you didn't know well i don't think there are any genetic factors this is a human disease and it is going to affect humans uniformly china released some very detailed data on who has been affected and who succumbed to this virus and what you're seeing is you know a pretty unusual age distribution where people under the age of 20 aren't really being affected so only about 2% of the cases reporting over 40,000 cases were under the age of 20 . 60 percent were between the ages of 30 and 60, but again, most of the deaths were clustered and those over 60, so it seems that while older people are succumbing to the virus many middle-aged people are taking notice. that they have fairly severe disease or more advanced disease because China is really only tracking people who have significant symptoms, mild and moderate cases probably go unreported so it's unusual to see so few children being reported than he supposes that many more children are likely to get sick, but the disease is so mild that it is not even reported to the authorities.
gottlieb japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak
Do you see any slowdown in the rate? of spread in the last three days we saw we were briefly bullish and then they changed the method they were using but again it wasn't as bad over the weekend as we feared it's the re reasons for hope Kadir and we believe what we're hearing right I think unfortunately we have to look beyond China I mean we have to pay attention what is happening in China there is certainly a lot of suffering there but we have to look at other nations as well and what is happening there Singapore seems to be controlling what it was an

outbreak

in that city-state, but Japan seems to be on the

cusp

of a

large

outbreak and perhaps a growing epidemic in Japan.
gottlieb japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak

More Interesting Facts About,

gottlieb japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak...

We need to watch that very closely. I've had cases doubling in just the last four days, so if you start to see this become an epidemic and other nations or other nations experience

large

outbreaks, it's going to be extremely concerning that we won't be able to control this globally. and as far as china is concerned and you've seen a decline in cases in the new hebei province where they've effectively imposed martial law, it's not clear what's happening in other cities in china for a while they were just testing people. e in other cities that had traveled from Wuhan, so if that is still in place and since there is no one traveling outside of Wuhan anymore because everyone is in lockdown at home, I would expect to see reported cases drop in other cities in China so we don't really know what's going on in China and whether or not that might be epidemics taking hold in other cities in China right now. even to other epidemics in the past and even to the flu, I mean, we know in the United States as many as 60,000 people die from the flu in the United States alone, so how does this compare, how are we going to look ahead behind? properly react overreact underreact well I think this is extremely concerning there is a lot we don't know right now if you remember with the h1n1 swine flu when it initially took root it was first diagnosed in the United States United in April 2009.
gottlieb japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak
Thought this was going to be very serious it turned out to be less virulent than we initially feared this is not clear and we are going to learn a lot more as we go along but it seems to be the case that this is probably more contagious than seasonal flu and more virulent in terms of its potential to cause death and significant illness, the case fatality rate of how many people succumb to infection per 1,000 looks like it could go as high as 2 and perhaps stabilize at 0.5 once it let's have all the data on how much mild and moderate illness there is right now to give you a basis for comparison, the flu is 0.12 0.05 e so it's significantly higher if you know one extra death per thousand or maybe more than that that's pretty significant and it looks like the number of new infections per infection could get to three out of four with fluids 1,3 typically with a seasonal flu, so what we call Arnott's is 1.3, which means there are 1.3 new infections for every one infection you have, but with

coronavirus

it seems to be on the order of two or three.
gottlieb japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak
I wonder if he still feels that there will be outbreaks here in the United States and if bringing back the patients from the diamond princess is something that could exacerbate. either that or increasing the possibility that Scott will pay well Trading Americans won't because we'll keep a good check on those people and make sure they get good care, but it looks like it looks like we might have some exposure that we're missing at this At the moment, we are just implementing a central surveillance system that

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