Film Theory: Willy Wonka RIGGED the Golden Tickets!

Assuming there were a thousand

wonka

bars in the world and during the contest each of you opened a certain number of them, you would have a certain probability of winning that number is a probability that everyone understands, yes, danny tyburn, what is the probability of that five white kids would find them? The

golden

wonka

tickets

, excuse me, the

golden

tickets

all five were found by white kids, so what's the chance of that happening? After all, wonka is an international candy brand, it seems very unlikely, I can't figure it out, but maybe if I research the demographics of sugar producers from the 1970s and compare them to global distribution maps.

Wait, Danny, give me 15 minutes. I can do this for you, the rest of you, just play Fortnite on your cell phones. It always works. Hello Internet, welcome to

film

theory

. The program that brings you down. a world of pure imagination and then ruins all the fun by adding math homework. My dear theorists, when I started doing YouTube almost 10 years ago, I never dreamed that I would be in the position I am in today, a channel with more than 10 million subscribers and the

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theory

here that is getting closer is still strong. much to that same milestone.

By the way, you should help us get there by subscribing to a channel that was the most popular live stream on YouTube for a long time. Food theory, our new addition to the theistic family. If you haven't reviewed or subscribed, should you say you clicked on a video about the mathematics of a fictional candy company? Why don't you subscribe to a channel where we talk about the math of a real candy company? I'm already immersed in trying out a lot of interesting things on gummy bears, which is yielding some pretty fascinating results for an upcoming episode, so one is in the works, but there are also episodes that are already on the channel, like the few licks that are they need. to get to the heart of a tootsie roll pop or the episode that came out today where we get to the definitive answer on whether a hot dog is actually a sandwich spoiler alert the classification of pizza and chicken wings is also up for debate the link is correct there at the top of the description or in the top right corner of the screen, visit that channel if you haven't already.

We've been working really hard over the last year to get this channel up and running, so please validate our efforts by watching and subscribing, thank you, but you see, that's the awesome thing here. I'm beyond grateful to have people watching content from four channels right now, but not just watching interacting with all those channels and see, that's the one I want. talk right now because if you're the type of person who presents me with theories online, you might think I don't see them or you might think I don't care, you might think I'm just going to sit here and make theories about Marvel movies, rick and morty and disney until the day my arthritic fingers fall off and while that is true, it is also true that I see your ideas and I love those ideas.

For example, I recently received a tweet from nia not jax saying quote I want Film Theory to make a video about the probability of five white kids getting all the golden tickets in Matpat GT. Please, this has bothered me for years. I would have to say Neonate Jacks. I like your Willy Wonka style and the chocolate factory is one of mine. Favorite movies of all time if you haven't seen it, shame on your parents, but as a quick refresher, it's a movie about eccentric candy factory owner Willy Wonka who creates a contest to give away his factory and plant golden tickets in five random chocolate bars. to select who can enter the factory for a behind-the-scenes tour and, as Nía correctly calls, all the kids who find these tickets are fine, they look very similar, but what are the chances of that kind of thing happening?

My gut reaction Wonka is an international candy distributor, but there are so many complicated factors at play, from historical era to demographics to international trade policies, that well, the answer is actually a lot less clear and that means it's pretty ripe. for our theory today, so hop on your psychedelic theory boat and keep an eye on your chins for any errant candy counters because we're headed for a sweet ride. Have you ever noticed that, by the way, I've seen this movie so many times? I noticed all the little details the candy man just looks at that girl with the counter it's brutal in order to answer the main question I have to address another question that doesn't exactly have a simple answer what defines a white person?

I feel like it's the chill of the internet breathing down my neck watching everything I say from this moment forward in case I accidentally say something offensive but back off, PC police. I get it, racial identity is the kind of thing that gets pretty complicated both on a personal level, as many people don't believe that a single racial label correctly identifies them, and on a global scale, including how often data has been used racial discrimination to discriminate race, ethnicity, and skin tone do not always coincide in different cultures. or even person to person, but my interpretation of nia's tweet, not jack's, leads me to believe that they are using the term white kids to refer to people of primarily European descent who generally have lighter skin tones.

I'm largely taking that definition. from a youtuber called masamon who produces some really interesting videos about the history of ethnicity and demographics around the world, so if that's your thing check out his channel, it's actually very strong. In short, I recognize that not all people of European ancestry are white and Not all whites are of European ancestry, but in an effort to define our data sets and answer the question as best as possible, that is the line we will have to take. Going on today to get an estimate of the probability that the five wonka golden tickets would go to the white people requires two sets of data: the number of all white people on earth and the total number of all people on earth technically that gives us gives the probability that a golden ticket will go to a white person, whoever that may be, and then we increase that probability to the fifth power, as the probabilities of different events are multiplied to give the total probability and before the computer nerds statistics come after me, yes, technically I'm ignoring the elimination of this calculation once the first white person has gotten a golden ticket both The population of white people and the population of planet Earth decrease by one, but since our numbers are already so big, it won't affect things much, so all that being said it should be pretty simple, two numbers, boom, calculate the probability, multiply it by five.

Well, that's where you'd be wrong. You see, the math is probably the easiest part. The first time in history it is said that everything is just simple multiplication. No, the problem is determining the world population and the percentage of white people. because that requires us to know when the movie is taking place and that's not entirely clear, it's debatable whether it's set around the time the movie was released around 1971 or sometime later based on wonka's super advanced technology or even a while before that because Charlie's town seems very rural, however, there is a small detail that answers the question after Charlie finds his golden ticket and starts running home through a construction site through wait, just for a moment we can see a piece symbol drawn in chalk. behind it, that symbol was invented as a sign of protest for nuclear disarmament in 1958 and didn't become very popular until the late 1960s, so it's safe to say that the film is set in the present day, i.e. , in the present at that time.

What is now the past for us, is around 1970. Alright, according to statistics compiled by the United Nations, the world population in 1970 was approximately 3.632 million people, less than half of what it is now 50 years ago. then, by the way, the total white population is. a little harder to calculate because many countries did not ask about ethnicity in their census at the time, many countries still do not do so to this day, however demographers have estimated the percentage of the world's population that has been white throughout history, giving us approximations. From just over 30 percent of the world's population in 1950 and just over 20 percent in the year 2000, assuming the general trend is correct, the world's population would have been 26,464 percent or just over one in four in the 1970s, if we raise those probabilities to With the fifth power, we get that the chances of the five golden tickets going to white children are a minuscule 0.13 probability of having a little perspective, that white children sweeping the golden tickets is about 1 in 800, while the chances of catching a foul ball in a professional baseball game is about one in a thousand.

Sure those odds aren't very good, but unlikely things tend to happen. Many fly balls and golden walks in the heat, so the case was closed. Episode over time to move on to food theory and watch the new episode, no, we're just getting started because the calculation we just made makes a few key assumptions, the first of which is that everyone on the planet has access to wonka bars and that's not very realistic, a better estimate would consider it. which markets wonka products would likely have been excluded from in the 1970s, and to do so we need to answer an important question: where the hell is this movie supposed to take place? charlie and her family and

willy

wonka, they all sound american, you can move in right away and i wonder exactly what happens to the whole family, but then the random townspeople and charlie's teacher have british accents.

A test we take every Friday on what we learn during the week will now take place on Monday before we have learned it and, furthermore, when we see the The city from above looks like a small, quaint town in central Germany. I always assumed the movie took place somewhere in Europe even though most of the main characters spoke with American accents, but the movie actually gives us the answer through the newsreels. We in the United States sleep here in the United States. Oddly enough, this movie is set in America. You could be stubborn and say they are watching American news broadcasts from a foreign country, but we are actually watching an international broadcast from Paraguay when South American News covers the fake fifth winner and we can clearly see that the television refers to it as a satellite broadcast , so yeah, it's a weird version of America with a lot of European influence, but apparently we're somewhere in the old America of the movie. makes wonka products look like one of the biggest food brands in the world, so now the question is how widespread distribution would be for a major international food company based in the United States back in the 1970s.

Sorry , this is just one of those moments. Do you see how? stupidly over researched, this is all about how deep we go into questions that literally no one cares about, oh right, let's research the global distribution map of 70s era US based food companies to determine why the wonka is so white, I mean, these are, without exaggeration, some of my favorite episodes, but it's moments like these where the rabbit hole has gone so deep and the investigation is such a darkly specific topic I really appreciate doing this channel. If you also like these types of episodes, please subscribe if you haven't already.

Film Theory I really want this channel to reach 10 million subscribers and I would really appreciate your help in getting there. This channel works very hard and really deserves it so please if you could help it would be awesome, we can't use real life wonka. candy brand in this case because it was just a really solid product integration released in time for the movie, so it doesn't really have much history to go back to, not if we're looking for the most accurate business to compare the wonka of the 70s with is the most famous source of excess sugar in the world coca-cola based in atlanta georgia coca-cola has been available in different parts of the world for more than a hundred years and in 1970 coca had the ability to spread throughout the planet as seen with wonka candy in the movie which is why i chose it as our wonka substitute instead of say another candy company like hershey which had a smaller international distribution in the 70's that being said and this is Importantly for our calculation, there was a In many places you couldn't get coke in the 1970s, the first major market, the Soviet Union, and thereforePretty obvious reasons, we had a war, it was a really cold war, we almost blew ourselves up with nuclear weapons several times and then we did it. t yay story fanta a coca-cola product arrived in russia in 1979 and coca a few years later, which is still too late for our calculations number two market that excludes china curiously coca-cola was sold for the first time in china in 1927, but after Mao's communist revolution in 1949 Coca-Cola and many other Western products were banned in the country and Coca was not able to return to China until 1979 and finally marketed to the number three nations of the Arab League the Arab League which It is mainly made up of West Asian countries and North African countries like Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia were not very happy when Coca-Cola opened to Israel in 1966 and boycotted the soda until 1979.

Therefore, for our calculations We will eliminate the 1970 China populations. The USSR and the Arab League nations from our world population totals, reducing everything by 1.1 billion people, also reduces our total white population by about 228 million to 733 million divided by 2.457 million raised to the fifth power, we get the new wonka grand total. so white at point two four percent that's the probability of getting the five golden tickets going to the whites once you eliminate all the places where the wonka candy bars probably wouldn't be, it's twice as likely as our first calculation, but It's still a long shot of 1 in 400, it really seems like there's an astronomically small chance that the Golden Tickets would shake like this when I ask a question like that.

You know I'm cheating on you. You know. I've only been doing that for over eight years because there's one more factor we need to consider. Probably the most important of the bunch, sure we've gotten an idea of ​​how many people had access to wonka bars in the 1970s, but we have to take into account how many bars those people are going to buy in various parts of the world. world because let's face it, some people will buy very few bars, if any, and some little monsters will buy a lot of bars. It's all about disposable income and relative wealth.

We heard that the virus attack, for example, is over 760,000. Honey, I can. Don't push them over the 19,000 bars an hour they're bombing now, obviously she's an extreme outlier, but the scene in Charlie's math class shows us that her classmates usually bought a lot of wonka bars and you, Peter Golf, how many did it? you open 150 charlie bucket how many did you open? two 200 100 200 only two as we can see at charlie's british for no apparent reason teacher it's not just commonplace for these kids to buy wonka bars by the hundreds, as expected, but not in every country in the world.

The world has the same disposable income as the United States in the 1970s, for example, India had more than twice as many people as the United States, but the per capita income of the United States was 45 times that of India, so if they buy sweets at a constant rate. With your income, a golden ticket is actually much more likely to appear in the US than in India, so combining 1970 per capita income data with populations by world region in the same year , we can adjust the probability to take into account purchasing power regions with predominantly white populations also had very high regional wealth multipliers North America was 44 Western Europe 24 Australia New Zealand 23.5 In contrast the developing world multipliers show how relatively poor were in 1970 Africa multiplier 2.7 South Asia 1.8 Latin America 5.3, so by including all these new considerations in our calculations, suddenly the chances of a golden ticket going to a white person jump our initial estimate from about one and four to now more than three and four, triples, which means that our final estimate of the probability of the five golden tickets going to white children is drum roll, please? what do you mean we don't have a drum roll effect?

We've done this part before we had it in our well, well, don't look. for that, then just give me a dramatic sound effect, you really have mail 24, even if we want to adjust that number and assume that all predominantly white regions had the same percentage of white population as the US, which was 87.7 percent, probably a lot. Lower than in northern and western Europe, the final odds are still over 12, so when we consider things like excluded markets and relative wealth, it's still not very likely that the five golden tickets will go to white children, but it is much more likely.

Initially it might seem like there are now between 12 and 24 no great odds, but it is far from evidence that the system was

rigged

. You know, what's evidence that the system was

rigged

? Slugworth, how is it possible that you could get there from Charlie's hometown somewhere in the US? to the precise locations in Germany and England and all over the United States before the winners had time to do a television interview. Of course, we find out at the end of the movie that Slugworth has been working with Wonka the whole time, so if Slugworth knows where to go, that means wonka knows where to send it and knew where the golden tickets were going.

They probably even set up Charlie. He buys the golden ticket from him with a dollar he finds in a storm drain and then runs into Slugworth among the candy. the store and his house, Charlie hasn't been in the news yet, so how does Slugworth know that he has the last golden ticket? Because he planted the money and planted the bar with the golden ticket. It's possible that he even brought in the candy seller. Since Charlie doesn't even choose the chocolate that was on the ticket, have you ever noticed that the candy man just grabs it off the shelf and hands it to Charlie Slugworth?

He probably even gave her the instructions. Give it to a child who is worthy. Because? Don't try a regular wonka bar this time and you'll see that's the final nail in the coffin. What is interesting is not the fact that all the winners are white, but the fact that they are all children because, as we see throughout the film, adults are buying these chocolate bars by the millions because they have expendable income and, without However, somehow, against all odds, the winners are five children, it is because wonka through slugworth manipulated it so that the children would get the tickets, he needed the five winners to be children who, coincidentally, also Being white is something that he admits in the final scene.

I can't go on forever. So who can I trust to run the factory when I leave? I'm not an adult. That's why I decided a long time ago that I had to look for a child. and that's why you sent out the golden tickets, that's right, what are the odds that the five golden tickets will go to white kids at the neon games? Based on a pure probability of one in eight hundred, based on a little more research, one in four, but the real probability is one to one because everything was rigged from the beginning, but hey, that's just a theory, a movie theory and just a reminder to check out food theory if you liked this episode.

Let's face it, you made it to the end. So it's important for you to know that a lot of the research we got for this one was something we learned while going over food theory, so go check it out. There are plenty of fun episodes on the way, including how to break up. Colonel Sanders curses the dark truth behind count chocula and outdoing the chipotle menu, so if you haven't watched today's new episode of food theory yet and subscribe to that channel, the links are on the screen right now and I'll see. on all channels next week