Everyone is Wrong - This is How War will EndSep 08, 2023
The Ukrainian war is nowhere near over, but as historians say, if you want to know the future, just look at history. There is a popular saying among historians that ancient wars were fought for loot and modern wars are not meant to be won. With
thisin mind, the 21st century is rife with such cases: the Syrian Civil War and the US conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq are some of the many examples that we can think of as relating to the above statement. Right now, as we speak, the world is trapped. in a similar situation with all eyes on one of the most pressing global issues of our time: the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia as Ukraine continues to fight to liberate its occupied territories and expel Russian invaders, both its Western supporters and Global observers are constantly reflecting on the final outcome of the conflict after it and the only question that is on
everyone's lips is how the war
thisvideo we are going to share some insights and reveal what historians around the world thinks about the subject, but first, please. hit the like button and help our channel grow.
It's just a quick click, but it helps make a big difference for us. Now let's continue the topic on February 24, 2022. 2. The world woke up to the news that Russian tanks had entered Ukraine from the east. and the North, more than a year later, tens of thousands of victims have been reported on both sides and millions of refugees from Ukraine have been registered across Europe. When the invasion began, it was widely believed that it would be a quick and decisive victory for Russia and they would crush the Ukrainians in just a few weeks, but credit must be given to Ukraine's unwavering resistance and continued Western support after 18 long and difficult months. bloody The war continues and entered a new phase this summer when kyiv launched its long-awaited counteroffensive.
There were hopes that Ukraine would regain the advantage, but unfortunately it is painfully slow and one thing is becoming clear: it
willnot produce quick results and its success, measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory, is not guaranteed, but is there a light on the horizon? end of the process? According to war historian Han Golemons, the tunnel this year may mark the first anniversary of the ongoing war, but it will certainly not be the last and in all likelihood will continue for several years to decode the nature of modern wars. Goldman further added that many wars simply will not end and the last war that ended in total defeat on one side was World War II.
Given that this war is shaping up, it is highly unlikely that the two countries will be able to completely subjugate each other, a possible solution according to Gomens. Ending the war is reaching an agreement at the negotiating table, so it must end in some kind of negotiated agreement, but with neither side really willing to do so, this has turned the current conflict into a war. of wear. Margaret MacMillan War historian and University lecturer. of Oxford noted in a similar note stating that while each conflict is unique and tends to defy history, it is highly unlikely that either side in this war will be fueled, at least from where we stand today, a more likely scenario. is that prolonged fighting will leave both sides exhausted but unwilling to admit defeat, resulting in a frozen conflict or Forever War, a concern also expressed by Samuel Sharap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation who specializes in foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states in In Sharab's eyes the current war could well turn into a protracted war that could last for decades with periods of hot and cold conflicts.
The history. Pages two suggest that might be the most likely outcome. A study by the Center for Strategic Affairs and International Studies using data from 1946 to 2021 found that 26 percent of interstate wars end in less than a month and another 25 percent within a year; However, the study also found that when interstate wars last more than a year, they extend to more than a decade on average. Even if tomorrow there is not a single Russian soldier left on Ukrainian territory, Russia could very well continue missile attacks and bomb Ukraine for years into the future, so even if the fighting stopped and Russia was able to park its tanks, There is no guarantee that he will increase his ambition regarding Ukraine not to mention that a long war between Russia and Ukraine will also be very problematic for the United States and its allies.
The West has so far played a very critical role in this war, supplying Ukraine with much-needed weapons to turn the situation around. tide and also through sanctions that cripple Russia's economy, but a prolonged conflict also means a possible escalation either towards nuclear use by the Russians or towards a Russian NATO war, the longer the war drags on, The greater Ukraine's economic and military dependencies will be on the West as a country. As a result, it may cause budget challenges for Western countries and readiness problems for their armies. Reconstruction of Ukraine will require massive investments. The country's energy infrastructure will also need to be rebuilt, and in the meantime, keeping its economy afloat may require up to $5 billion a year. month, as estimated by the international monetary fund, after the hot conflict ends, US engagement is likely to continue, but finding an end to the conflict appears increasingly difficult, although the Biden administration and NATO have promised to continue his cost of supporting Ukrainians.
God forbid. If one day the West is
wrong, Ukraine will lose, it will cease to exist as an independent sovereign state, Russia will win and its tentacles with its extensions abroad in its evil influence campaign will continue to return to the nuclear threat since the war. Putin has been threatening to use nuclear weapons if NATO doesn't back down and let him have Ukraine every few weeks, a top Russian somewhere talks about the prospect of a nuclear threat that is more or less designed to scare Ukraine and others countries. world leaders to refrain from allying with Ukraine, but in the opinion of experts this is nothing more than a clever Russian strategy of reproducing our fears and its nuclear threat is just a toothless statement by someone who no one thinks Putin is stupid enough to to attack.
NATO directly, so even if nuclear weapons are involved, they will in all likelihood be tactically targeted at Ukraine, which would only strengthen the resolve of Ukraine and its allies. The other problem is that no one really knows how many Russian nuclear weapons are working, since most of them are from the Cold War era that haven't exactly been maintained well, so Putin's so-called nuclear deterrent could simply be a straw man talking about Putin. Another popular opinion among historians is that for any negotiations to take place, President Putin has to go with him at the helm. In the Russian Federation, peace with Crane is simply not possible.
I would describe it as Putin's War. I think that he wanted it I think he provoked it I think given his position in Russia the war would not have happened unless he wanted it, we all know that the war in Ukraine is part of Vladimir Putin's political or mortality project as a former agent of the KGB. Mr. Putin is motivated by the prospect of restoring Russia to what he believes is its former Soviet glory. This would explain Mr. Putin's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and his current invasion of Ukraine. Although some may say this is counterproductive for him, Putin has shown no inclination to withdraw from the war effort;
In fact, all signs point to the opposite, as Russia is still achieving various increases by sending large numbers of troops to Ukraine, often for a time. disappointing result, we could say in many ways that the same man who started the conflict could end it if he wanted to, but the problem, according to some historians, is that at the moment he simply does not have an incentive to do so, this is Putin's war , says McMillan, The Russian president has risked his prestige on this and the more losses, the more difficult it will be for him to turn back.
The Russian president's objective is to avoid a crushing defeat on the battlefield, since nothing less than the survival of his regime is at stake. To do that, Russia needs to win or at least create an illusion of military achievement, showing the Russian people that we are winning by doing so will allow the Kremlin's propaganda machine to generate a narrative of revanchism and stoke popular demands for greater aggression against Ukraine, So while some historians like MacMillan recognize that through this war Putin is fighting for his political life, some historians like Goldman revealed much darker clouds: therein lies the problem and there is a bit of debate about whether Putin can really survive internal level to a loss in war because if he can't, then he can anticipate that if he loses he will be punished for his poor performance, imprisoned, exiled or most likely fall from a window on the third floor of some Kremlin building and They will kill him.
I guess that's how it is. Most likely, there is also the question of what will happen if Putin dies right now. Various health rumors and assassination attempts have only fueled this debate, leaving
everyonewondering what will happen to the ongoing conflict if the man who started it dies in the middle of it. The historians' club has mixed feelings about the situation: on the one hand, half predict that this could cause political chaos in Russia and immediately stop the war in Ukraine; the other half remain convinced that the government would likely be more violent and hardline, meaning more problems for Ukraine.
Russia also has other cards up its sleeve, however, it is not obvious how they will fare in the long term if one thing this war has taught us is the importance of allies and that is Russia's biggest problem. lack of allies Russia only has a few allies which include Iran, Belarus and North Korea. They have been providing Russia with most of their weapons due to heavy sanctions, but it is not enough. However, there is still a key ally that can change the balance. Russia's favor China China is one of Russia's largest trading partners and has been instrumental in providing it with supplies since Russia came under Western sanctions.
Some historians even considered that China secretly wants Russia to win the war in Ukraine, thus beginning an era of conquest. marrying China's plans regarding Taiwan with another China on paper has repeatedly denied sending military equipment to Russia since Moscow's full invasion of Ukraine, his actions are anything but those of a senior advisor and the office of the President Vladimir Zelinsky has told Reuters that Ukrainian forces are finding an increasing number of Chinese components and Russian weapons used in Ukraine, the Pentagon also issued a similar statement commenting that Beijing allegedly approved covert shipments of lethal aid to Russia disguised as civilian items. .
It looks like all those handshakes and conversations about limitless friendship are finally paying off. By all accounts, Russia's battlefield resources are declining right now and, if Pentagon reports are true, this could be a major change in Russia's ability to continue the ongoing war. So what happens if Russia takes the advantage? The geomins point out that no deal offered by the Russians can be sustainable, since any deal that leaves Russia in control of any Ukrainian territory will only be accepted by Ukraine if it is guaranteed brutal security in the future and the only way to doing so is through NATO, which in itself is quite ironic since according to Putin, this is one of the reasons why he supposedly went to war with Ukraine, as the Ukrainians were eager to join NATO, so any promises Putin makes or any agreements are simply doubtful and let's not forget that Russia under Putin has never ended its wars. at the negotiating table and, at best, has frozen them by keeping their options open.
Russia has shown no interest in making concessions that would come close to the minimum requirements of Ukraine and its allies as long as its military avoids total collapse and believes there is a politically charged possibility in the west. Putin will likely continue to sacrifice the Russians. to stay in the fight; However, there is a possibility that negotiations will take place, but for that Ukraine needs to win or at least negotiations must take place when they have significant influence in the west. battlefield, but that carries a fallacy of its own. While most of the world wants Ukraine to win in this war for goodagainst evil and for Russia to be completely defeated, a wide range of historians have also argued that Russia should not be humiliated by the resounding defeat in Ukraine, if Ukraine emerges victorious, one of the most difficult things would be to treat Russia with generosity due to anger at what Russia has done, more specifically at how Russians have behaved in Ukraine, as the evidence of war crimes becomes stronger and stronger, but What Ukraine must also take into account is the fact that shares a long border with Russia and does not want Russia to enter into something like a societal collapse, a failed state, or a civil war that has parallels with the aftermath of the first world.
War historian Margaret McMillan cast a long shadow on the issue, saying that in countries like Russia there is a deep sense of visionism and if they feel they have been treated badly, the tendency would be to blame not their own leaders but external forces. , which is What happened in Germany after World War I? Although the Germans lost cleanly on the battlefield, many Germans simply did not agree to include, of course, the key members of the army who fostered this idea that Germany had been stabbed in the back by the merchants at home and are not really lost. on the battlefield, we all know how that played out, so something similar happens to Russia, who knows what future chaos it may cause in Ukraine.
Much also depends on the upcoming US presidential elections. Putin is the aggressor Putin. He chose this war and now he and his country will bear the consequences. Presidential elections are rarely won or lost.Foreign Affairs, but in the early stages of the race for the White House in 2024, Ukraine has already become a major issue in the election campaign, as President Joe Biden insists that it will support Ukraine for as long as necessary. Former President Donald Trump says he will do it. end war in one day as soon as he takes office Since the war began, the Biden administration and the US Congress have allocated more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, including financial and military support humanitarian, but now things could change and if there is one The man who can't wait for the results to come out is our own Vladimir Putin.
Top historians are concerned that Putin is taking into account the 2024 US presidential election and his war planning in Ukraine in the hope that a defeat by President Joe Biden next year will lead to the United States reducing its support for Ukraine. and it will improve Russia's negotiating position and why, of course, NATO, the West and the European Union have not stepped forward to help Ukraine, but if there is one country that has gone further, it is the United States? The winner of the White House will set the tone for the NATO alliance backing Ukrainian President Voldemort Zolenski's government and help determine how much Western military assistance will be delivered, so to summarize, here are some ways this war could ending the first and more The most obvious way to win Ukraine would be for its Armed Forces to take back all the territory that Russia has illegally seized since its first invasion in 2014, including Crimea.
This would be a fantastic outcome, but if we are honest, we must recognize that Ukraine may not achieve complete military success in the next year or two, which could also turn it into an eternal war. To achieve this, it is essential to have a continuous flow of all types of funds from the West. A second way is through diplomatic agreements. In fact, a military stalemate is achieved. possible and at some point negotiations with Russia will be necessary to end this war, but Ukraine should start negotiating only when it is in the strongest possible position and not rush into talks when Russia shows no interest in any terms of agreement that not be the surrender of Ukraine in one direction.
Doing so also amounts to an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but it also does not end the war decisively given the history between these two countries and all the likelihood of future conflicts in the case of an armistice, fortunately as well. There is a third possible way to satisfy the need for Ukraine's success and Russia's failure without giving Putin the power to say no. This is how it could work if the United States continues to provide the Ukrainian military with everything it needs to advance as far as possible and it is a counteroffensive.
Ukraine could declare a pause in offensive military operations and shift its main focus to the defense and reconstruction of liberated areas; Then, at the July 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, they could invite Ukraine to join the Western Alliance by guaranteeing the security of all territory controlled by the Ukrainian government at the time. point under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, this would mean that all land controlled by Ukraine at the time would be protected by NATO rules. Offering Article 5 protection to Ukrainian territory in this way will be similar to the type of protection that NATO provided to the so-called West Germany park after World War II, this would be a defensive pact, meaning that NATO would help Ukraine if someone attacks, but it doesn't mean he has to attack others for Ukraine, so tying Ukraine's membership in NATO to such conditions would give Putin another incentive to never comply. gaining security within NATO as a strong, pluralistic democratic state would be a great victory for Ukrainians, possibly as great as quickly recovering Crimea;
It could make it possible for Ukraine's leader to focus in ways other than fighting to take back the parts of the country that Russia used diplomacy or new sanctions to block and sabotage. Yes, Russian forces could try to go on the offensive again, but the likely futility of attacking Ukrainian fortified positions now backed by the threat of NATO firepower would be a strong deterrent while sanctions on Russia remained in place. His economic and military strength would continue to erode and there is nothing Putin can do but watch as his frozen assets abroad are used to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
If that's not sweet revenge for Ukraine, then today's geopolitical world moves very fast and it's quite impossible to keep up with all the news, which is why we launched Global Recaps, a geopolitical newsletter that covers world news in a way quick and simple. We send an email straight to your inbox covering the most important world news that you can read in less. More than five minutes, best of all, it's completely free and you can sign up now using the link in the comments or the link in our bio.
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