Coronavirus is 'ALREADY pandemic' and 'almost impossible to eradicate' says expert

Certainly, many of my colleagues and I think that this virus is

already

compulsive and tame and that means that the virus is spreading from person to person in more than one region of the world and if we think about what has happened in the last few days. Not only do we have a major outbreak in China, but we have started to see quite significant changes in human-to-human transmission in places like the Middle East in Iran in particular; We are also seeing a fairly large widespread outbreak in Italy and it is important to note that these are outbreaks that have been caused by the introduction of the virus and the source of that virus is unknown, so I think they know clearly that this is a virus that it has the potential and is actually spreading quite well within various communities and I saw a report that there in China it appears that infections have plateaued or are declining, but are we seeing the virus recovering in other parts of the world?

It's something we should worry about. Yes, I think the data coming out of China is probably a product of the lockdown of the city of Wuhan and also the province in general, so you know that as the virus has passed through that population, it is starting to decrease in terms of the number of infections it has caused, but of course what we do know is that the virus has spread to other parts of China, so I think many of us are hoping that those numbers will start to rise again by as the virus continues to spread in other parts of China and I believe what we are seeing elsewhere as well. in the world, for example South Korea, Italy and the Middle East, is that those outbreaks are also going to accelerate, so I think they know that for sure, although the decline in China is encouraging.

I think many of us feel that this virus is probably going to be

almost

impossible

to

eradicate

now and therefore we need to be prepared for cases that will likely occur in the coming months. So how can Britain and other governments around the world contain the covert '19

pandemic

? Yeah, I think it's instead of containing it, I think. The best thing they can do is slow it down and I think the measures that we've seen introduced, at the moment it's still about trying to identify cases to isolate them and try to prevent transmission and that's certainly we work in places that have incredibly good surveillance and We are fortunate in the UK to have some of the best surveillance systems in the world, but of course the concern is whether that virus can enter the country undetected. an individual who has not traveled from a high risk area but is still infected and then what we have with the potential is community spread that goes unnoticed and that is why the government announced yesterday that they are going to introduce more widespread testing for the corona virus, particularly if someone presents to the hospital with a serious illness, they will be tested for the presence of the corona virus, but they will also set up what we call sentinel sensors, so these are centers across the country that, As part of routine surveillance, they will begin testing for the presence of the virus, the Sun has today seen a leaked government memo detailing a worst-case scenario in which 80 per cent of Britons could be infected with kovat 19 Is Britain prepared for this type of scenario?

Well, I think you know it's always hard to understand. exactly how this virus will behave. I think the one thing we do know is that there are several things that we do know, one is that this is a virus that seems to transmit easily between humans and we also know that in most cases. In some cases, the virus produces very mild symptoms and that allows the virus to spread quite easily because there are no red flags raised when someone becomes infected, so you know the other thing we know is you know this is a virus that has the potential to cause serious illness and can cause death, so while we expect the numbers to increase we cannot have a real idea of ​​the impact it will have on the population, we are a naive population in the sense that we have never seen this virus before.

None of us will have immunity and therefore we are all potentially susceptible to infection, so we should expect to see potentially a lot of people who would become infected, so what we need to do is reduce the rate at which that happens. allow the NHS to deal with the consequences do you think the NHS could cope with the worst case scenario? It would be very difficult in the current situation if we think about what happens in a bad seasonal flu season, then you know clearly that the NHS is struggling to cope with the extra demand of the winter and I think if we add to that an outbreak of a virus that we've never seen before or a virus that can cause severe illness, something that can result in hospitalization and death, then you know it's very It's questionable whether their systems can cope and I think even if they can cope, it will inevitably have a such impact as many other routine procedures, operations, etc.

They will have to be canceled to cope with the increase in cases, but that is why it is important that we all do it. our grain of sand to try to stop the virus hmm in this memorandum I believe that the government makes estimates that propose the worst case scenario in terms of mortality rate at 500,000. I mean, do you think there could be a realistic number if we saw an 80 percent infection rate, it's very difficult because I think one of the things that's clear from the outbreak in China, which is where we've seen most of the cases, is the total number of cases that are likely to have the total number of infected people. be much higher than what is currently being reported at the moment and therefore we have to take all of these numbers with a bit of caution because we don't know the true rate of severe illness and hospitalizations and we don't know the true case fatality rates as well. that the true mortality rate is known and until we have a better idea of ​​that it is very difficult to put a figure on it, what the NHS has to do is prepare for the worst case scenario and if those are the figures that they have come up with to the shapers and you know that just lasts what they need to base their activities on, but you know don't be surprised if it's not as bad as that, but it may well be as bad as that and that is.

The problem we have is difficult to predict. Does this in fiction have the potential to reach the same kind of infection rate as the Spanish flu? So with the Spanish flu again, it's

almost

hard to put exact numbers on this, so we think globally it killed anything. between fifty and one hundred million people and the kind of estimates for the fatality rate that we have around one to two percent right now the SARS

coronavirus

fatality rate is very similar at the same time two percent, but as I say , I think you

already

know Many of us hope that this will decrease significantly when we fully understand the number of people who have been infected and have very mild illness, but you know it has the potential to cause serious illness and kill people.

It is a new virus. I've never seen it before, so you know you have to consider the worst case scenario to make sure you're adequately prepared for it. Across the country you've seen schools closing to do some sort of deep cleaning and students being told to be left alone. isolate for 14 days I think it was so obvious that there will be quite a few concerns and can parents give some advice to parents on how they can best protect their children. I think you know this is mostly an answer. mainly to travel to the worst affected areas of northern Italy and of course if people have returned from those areas there is a potential risk that they may be infected and I think the advice for those people is the same for anyone who is When returning from a severely affected location, there is a list of places on the government website and that is self-isolate for 14 days and that literally means staying in a single room as much as possible and avoiding as much contact as possible with them. other people and you don't leave your house, then I think that's good advice to follow and in terms of whether or not it's necessary to do a deep clean in a place after someone has returned from a very affected area, well, it's very debatable. and I think it's belts and braces, you know you're ensuring that you're maximizing your chances of that virus spreading if it gets in, but I think you know self isolation really is the key here.

Do you think it should stop flights returning from places that are severely affected like northern Italy. I think it's very difficult to work on it because if we take, for example, the outbreak in Italy, where we don't know where the virus came from, it could well have come from a place where there is no severely affected area but it has some corona virus circulating under the radar. I think a lot of us suspect that we don't know for sure, but we suspect maybe corona viruses. They are already in the UK and it is circulating without us knowing, which is why the government has decided to start surveillance to see if there is any evidence that the virus is already here and I think it is incredibly difficult for us to stop traveling completely. in its entirety until this virus outbreak goes away, but I think most of us think that the reality is that the virus is out there, it will spread around the world and unfortunately we will have to continue to operate as reasonably normal as possible and that means that people travel and therefore potentially bring the virus back to you